Rowleyfile Preview: 2018 Stewards' Cup

I like to think that the shrewd reader comes to these pages for the clarity that is brought to racing analysis by proper consideration of the evidence – it has certainly not been for winners recently, anyway – but evidence itself can sometimes be contradictory and pretty difficult to figure out.

The Unibet-sponsored Stewards’ Cup at 3:40 at Goodwood on Saturday is a case in point. Historical draw details tell you one thing, the likely distribution of the pace tells you another, and the TurfTrax Going Stick reading tells you something slightly different again.

Let’s deal with that last item first. The Going Stick readings on the straight course at midday on Thursday were given as 6.5 for the stand side (those drawn high in the big race), 6.2 for the centre, and 6.3 for the far side.

Taken overall, Going Stick readings suggest a difference of about a length at 6f for each 0.1 on the scale. The implication is that the stand side was about three lengths quicker than the centre and about two lengths quicker than the far side.

That is more than enough to make a difference in a race in which the average winning margin in the last decade has been a fraction under a length.

Then again, those differences are likely to reduce, but probably not go away entirely, as conditions dry out in the 48 hours after the readings were taken.

The contradictory messages from pace and draw can be illustrated by the following graphic, in which the % of Rivals Beaten for the stall in question and the two on either side are given for the past 10 years (after recoding for non-runners and changes to stalls numbering) along with the individual horses’ run styles judged on their Timeform Early Position Figures.

The best stalls historically have been those from 11 to 15 inclusive, while the worst have been 24 to 28. But it just so happens that the majority of the likely pace is in that latter group and absent from the former.

Anyone fancying something drawn high – perhaps because that is the one area in which a solid pace seems almost guaranteed – might, however, like to reflect that only one horse drawn in stall 20 or higher was quoted at less than 20/1 even after the draw was known!

Put simply, it is far from clear how things will develop. But at least we can be honest about that up front.

A couple of other “ten-year trends” to consider are those of age and BHA mark.

It is arguable whether three-year-olds should really be identified as a positive with an RB of 51.3%, but those two wins and a further first-four place are worth noting from quite a small representation.

A higher BHA mark has been advantageous, but this can be something of a moving target, with more than half of this year’s field figuring on less than 99.

As always, it ultimately comes down to what price you think a horse should be compared to what price it is, though no-one should pretend that estimating probabilities in a 28-runner sprint handicap is easy even at the best of times!

For me, one of the market leaders deserves its price, if not shorter, and that is Foxtrot Lady. She is a bang-in-form three-year-old filly, well suited by 6f and a sound surface, who should at least go close under a 6 lb penalty for her win at Newmarket last time.

The horse she beat that day, Stormbringer, disappointed next time, but the measure of Foxtrot Lady’s achievement is better reflected by the fact that there was three lengths – a large margin in a 20-runner sprint – back to the third. All those who beat Stormbringer on the second occasion had been well in arrears at Newmarket.

Trainer Andrew Balding is in good form and won this race with Foxtrot Lady's half-sister Dancing Star, in the same colours, two years ago.

The shape of the market makes this a slightly more appealing race to bet each way than win only: there was a 129% win book and a 110% place book at early prices and one quarter the win odds the first four places. One-fifth the odds first five places is fractionally better still (105% place book) than those conventional terms.

Recommendation: 1 pt each way FOXTROT LADY at 8/1, 1/5 the odds first 5 places