Rowleyfile Preview: 2018 Scottish Grand National

There is only one Grand National – the one at Aintree – and all others are imitations, but some of those imitations are more credible than others.

According to Wikipedia, the Scottish equivalent has been in existence since 1858, though at other locations before settling at Ayr in 1966. Eight years after the latter, the legendary Red Rum won at Ayr having won at Aintree shortly before, the only horse to achieve the double in the same year.

Ayr is not quite Aintree, most obviously in terms of the unique nature of the latter’s fences, but it tests many of the same attributes. At very nearly four miles, the Scottish race is just 558 yards shorter than its English equivalent, and it features 27 fences as opposed to 30. Stamina and jumping are at a premium at both venues.

The Scottish Grand National – sponsored for over a decade now by bookmakers Coral, with this year’s race on Saturday – also poses some similar tests to the punter: a large field of horses at various stages of progression or deterioration in their careers, and a late-season positioning in the jumping calendar which can make the form difficult to fathom at times.

Old-stagers have done reasonably well – the two 12-year-olds who made the frame last year, Benbens and Alvarado, go again – but there have been two seven-year-old winners recently, including Vicente, who followed up that victory in 2016 12 months later and now goes for the hat-trick.

As ever, cherry-picked examples can give a misleading impression in such matters, so let’s look at how those age-related stats come out when viewed properly, through impact values and % of rivals beaten, along with some other headline trends from the last 10 years.

Those two columns furthest to the right are the best indicators, with higher figures better in both cases. There is not a lot in those age findings, to be honest, but you definitely should not be put off veterans judged on them.

The under-performance of horses off absences of more than two months is the most meaningful conclusion, while last-time winners have not so much performed poorly as performed poorly compared to what could usually be expected of such a cohort.

Other features of this year’s race include ground that is drying all the time and may be good by the weekend, and the likelihood of a strong pace, with no less than 11 runners having Timeform EPFs of 2.2 or less.

It could prove to be an advantage to be in the pack rather than at the front in the first half of the race, but few horses manage to get into things from the rear late on at Ayr, with four fences needing to be jumped in little more than three furlongs. Ayr is very different to Aintree in that respect.

Whether it is Ayr, Aintree, or somewhere else entirely, the ultimate test of a bet is whether it is value, or, perhaps more candidly, whether it is considered to be value, for we cannot know for sure if it is.

I priced up the Coral Scottish Grand National to the best of my ability and had only one horse significantly shorter than with the bookmakers (who are betting pretty tight, it has to be said). That horse is Glencairn View.

The Tony Mullins-trained eight-year-old novice has come on in leaps and bounds recently, and is unexposed as a stayer but shapes as if he will be at home at this marathon trip. He has won at Punchestown and Navan since the turn of the year and gets in here off just 10 st 4 lb.

That run of form has come on heavy going, but there has been little alternative in Britain and Ireland in the rain-drenched winter that has just gone, and Glencairn View ran a race of no small promise over hurdles the only time he has encountered “good”. 

Given Glencairn View’s rate of progress, I thought he might be close to being favourite, but instead he is as big as 20/1 at the time of writing.

The mathematics points towards an each-way bet, but not by as much as is sometimes the case in these big handicaps, with a win book at best early prices of 137% and a place book of 117%. In addition, while I think Glencairn View will be suited by the extra distance, there are some for whom there are no doubts on that score.

The recommendation is to side with the upwardly-mobile Irish raider win only: winning is something he has proved pretty adept at lately in any case.

Recommendation: 1 pt win GLENCAIRN VIEW at 20/1