Rowleyfile Preview: 2018 Royal Hunt Cup

In order to do a preview of the Royal Hunt Cup you really need to consider the possible effect of the pace and the draw on a race which will have 30 runners spread right across the straight mile.

The two – pace and draw – are linked, and the way I have looked at them in the following “map” is to consider the % of Rivals Beaten by the stall in question and the stall on either side (after recoding for non-runners and the change in stall numbering prior to 2011) in the last 10 years, alongside the Timeform Early Position Figures of each of the runners.

Notably “good” draws are picked out in red, “poor” ones in blue, and pace-forcers of various strengths are highlighted by one, two, or three arrows. It is assumed, for this exercise, that the three reserves will not participate and that the draw will shuffle across accordingly. 

The most obvious conclusions are that there are pace forcers high, middle and low, but that there are large sections in which there is no obvious pace.

Those two dyed-in-the-wool front-runners in stalls 1 and 2 seem likely to ensure a fair set-up for horses in single-figured stalls despite the negative and neutral figures for those draws over the years. It is less clear that Mukalal will manage to tow along high-numbered stalls as effectively on what will be his seasonal return.

I am leaning towards horses drawn low and (especially) centre over those drawn high. 

There are also, as usual, some wider trends to consider from the last decade of Royal Hunt Cups.

Younger horses have had the edge over older horses, if not to the degree that might be imagined by considering wins only. Last-time winners and horses with good chances on Timeform adjusted ratings have also fared well, though no more than might be expected.

There may be a sweet spot in roughly the second quartile of horses by handicap marks, though again not as much as suggested by wins only (horses running off 100 to 102 have won more than three times as often as chance but placed only 1.29 times chance).

The trainers with runners most in form, as judged by %RB in handicaps in the last month are: Charlie Fellowes (Repercussion) and Denis Coakley (Hors de Combat) on 75%, Roger Varian (Cape Byron) on 65%, William Haggas (Mubtasim) on 62% and John Gosden (Tricorn) on 61%. Hardly any of the others could be considered to be out of form, however.

Chucking all these ingredients into the mix and adding a healthy dollop of more conventional form and time analysis, I had a small handful over-priced and have settled on two that are nearer the front of the market but still look value to my mind.

Afaak is disputing favouritism in the real world but should be clear favourite in my book at around 15/2. He is a good “fit” on some of the preceding factors, including being a last-time-winning four-year-old, drawn in the centre, and high up on Timeform adjusted ratings.

If you like your sectionals – and it is rumoured that I do – then you will like Afaak’s recent win at York, where he turned in a 34.6s last 3f to beat a next-time winner and next-time Group 3 runner-up in good style.

He is 6 lb higher here, but that should not be enough to stop him from going close. He could well be a lower Group performer in the making himself, though he may not be alone in that in a field like this.

Escobar may not be quite that good himself, but he does look a leading contender for the Royal Hunt Cup judged on his smooth win at Haydock last Thursday, for which he picked up a 5 lb penalty. Again, that was at the same trip and on similar ground to what he will encounter here, and his effort was backed up by a respectable timefigure and even better sectionals.

Escobar is close up in the Timeform ratings and drawn alongside Afaak in stall 16. I had him at 12/1 and he can be backed at bigger than that at early prices.

Dangers to the two selections are ten-a-penny, of course, but they should be of manageable numbers unless highly-drawn horses fare better than I am anticipating.

Bookmakers do not give a lot away in races like this, but an each-way bet is mathematically superior to a win-only bet (124% win book, 109% place book, at early prices) and that looks to be the way to go. If you shop around you may get enhanced place terms for good measure.

Recommendations:

0.5 pt each way AFAAK at 12/1

0.5 pt each way ESCOBAR at 16/1, ¼ the odds first-four places