Rowleyfile Preview: 2018 Old Newton Cup

Britain is gripped by the kind of summer we last had in the 1970s while England is simultaneously gripped by World Cup fever. But the great game of horseracing goes on, albeit on increasingly watered and yet firm surfaces, and with some of its flagship events moved to avoid clashes with events going on in Russia.

Haydock on Saturday will start just after midday, and the big handicap – the bet365-sponsored Old Newton Cup – is due off at 1:45. Best get studying now, for it is no easy problem to solve.

Seventeen runners have been declared, but it is probably around 50/50 whether enough will leave the stalls to allow for four places to be paid. If so, this will be a good race to have an each-way punt in mathematical terms; if not, then the appeal is greatly diminished.

One thing that seems highly likely with the Old Newton Cup is that it will be run at a strong pace: no less than 10 of the runners have Timeform Early Position Figure profiles of front-runners or prominent-racers.

Despite expected quick ground, the approximate mile and a half seems likely to take some getting: doubtful stayers may well not get the kind of breather connections would hope for to conserve their energy.

We can also look at what the 10-year “trends” for the race indicate. The following are some of the more notable ones, with, as usual, Place Impact Value and % of Rivals Beaten being the best guides.

Four-year-olds have dominated, being responsible for seven of the last 10 winners and 22 of the last 34 places. But they have also been responsible for roughly half of the runners, so those returns are only mildly positive, as is the 53.7% of Rivals Beaten.

The message is mixed regarding the draw, but inner stalls have not been favoured as might be expected: there is not much of a run from the starting chute to the first bend, and getting crowded may come with the territory.

There is an unexpected blip in favour of horses running from the second quartile in terms of handicap marks, which covers from Atty Persse to Aclimatise in Saturday’s field.

Perhaps most interesting of all are those figures for number of previous runs in the season in question: once-raced horses have over-performed but unraced ones have done the opposite (though the sample size is pretty small).

Atty Persse is the only horse in Saturday’s field without a run in 2018 to his name, but he is also favourite in the early exchanges, and at quite a short price, too.

The gelding is one of two trained by Roger Charlton – top-weight Blakeney Point is the other – a man who has the best recent record in handicaps with a very healthy 75.2% of Rivals Beaten. Other trainers who can be considered to be in good form by such a measure are Richard Hughes (65.7%, Golden Wolf) and Andrew Balding (62.5%, Wingingit).

There is much to compute from the above, but the acid test, as ever, is what this all means in terms of the odds at which one thinks each horse should be trading. I had a go at pricing up the race, and I will be pinning my colours to one each-way recommendation and hoping that the field size holds up.

That horse is the aforementioned Golden Wolf, a four-year-old from an in-form yard who is himself running well and yet only edging up the handicap.

He has finished second on all three runs this term, behind Royal Line and Dash of Spice at Epsom (when possibly not well drawn on the second occasion), then behind Amazing Red at Newmarket. 

The last-named was a rather odd race, in which Golden Wolf got stuck in No-Man’s Land, tracking an otherwise clear leader and looking like getting swamped when the pack descended on him with a quarter of a mile to go. But he found enough to see off all bar a rival right at the top of his game.

Golden Wolf has gone up just 1 lb and should really be there or thereabouts again this time. In addition, that Newmarket run was at 14f whereas the Epsom ones were at 12f. Golden Wolf travels strongly enough to hold a good position but should not be found out for stamina if the strong pace materialises.

Another fairly interesting runner is Across The Stars, who finished just one place behind Golden Wolf when the pair were placed behind Dash of Spice. The Richard Hannon-trained gelding was never nearer than at the finish, and could have this race run to suit him, but he has become a difficult horse to win with and lacks Golden Wolf’s progressive profile.

Recommendation:

0.5 pt each way Golden Wolf at 11/1, ¼ odds first four places