Rowleyfile Preview: 32Red Casino Handicap

The trick with so-called “trends” analysis is not only to use measures which are appropriate to the sample sizes and data being considered but to know to what degree such analysis is relevant in the first place.

This week’s race for inspection is a case in point. The Old Borough Cup was quite a major handicap at one time, but is just one of many vying for attention these days. It even lost its historical title a couple of years ago and is now known, more prosaically, as the 32Red Casino Handicap.

There is some continuity there – it is still a reasonably valuable 14f contest that will require a useful-or-better performance to win – but only some. For instance, this year’s race has the second-smallest field this century at 12, behind only last year’s of nine.

Nonetheless, it is worth looking at those trends, derived from the last 10 runnings of the race at Haydock Park, to see what shows up. The following are the most significant effects, as measured by % of rivals beaten and place impact values.

In view of those age-related statistics, it is disappointing that not one three-year-old has been declared when a quarter of those to have run have won, a half have been placed, and three-year-olds in general over-perform in longer-distanced open-aged handicaps.

That is, at least in part, a consequence of an even more valuable race at the same distance, confined to three-year-olds, elsewhere on the card in recent years. In the absence of three-year-olds, it can be pointed out that four-year-olds have done better than older horses, but to a lesser degree.

Last-time winners have a good record in the race, as do horses returning from a break of 29 to 56 days. At the other end of the scale, horses running off low handicap marks and reappearing after more than eight weeks’ absence have fared poorly.

Other factors to consider include trainer form – where there is little to see, though Mark Johnston (43.3% rivals beaten) has hit a bit of a lull – and the likely pace profile.

There looks to be a chance that the top weight Hochfeld will get his own way up front in a race in which no other horse has a Timeform Early Position Figure of less than 2.9. Hochfeld is Johnston’s sole representative, incidentally.

There is one element which does not come under traditional trends analysis that nonetheless requires consideration, and that is the ground. The official description of the going at Haydock at the time of writing is “Good to Soft” and there are reports of the course expecting nearly a week’s worth of rain between now and the off time of 3:35 on Saturday.

The effect of the ground tends to be over-stated by those (not least connections) looking for a ready excuse. But I am pretty sure it matters when the surface gets testing, as seems at least possible on Saturday.

Hochfeld has run twice on ground Timeform considered to be soft or heavy and performed 26 lb and 17 lb below pre-race expectations. Royal Reserve, Theglasgowwarrior, Cliffs of Dover and Never Surrender have also failed to run to form on such ground.

Among the others, who have, is one gelding who ticks quite a lot of those trends boxes. Bolder Bob is a four-year-old, running off a mid-ranking BHA mark, returning from 31 days off (in the “sweet spot” for absences) and with a last-time win under his belt.

That last-time win came by the narrowest margin from Mukhayyam at Pontefract a month ago, with Bolder Bob staying on determinedly to lead on the line. Bolder Bob has not always looked a staying type, but he did that day on one of Britain’s stiffest finishes, and the extra two-and-a-bit furlongs here could suit him.

Also relevant – perhaps very relevant – is that Bolder Bob has been raised just 1 lb for that win. Pontefract was not strong form, but he is not being asked to do anything far in advance of what he has done already. It should be difficult to keep him out of the shake-up.

The days of 16-plus runners in this race may be permanently behind us, and the dozen declared this Saturday mean that there is no mathematical advantage to betting each way over win only. The latter seems the way to go, and Bolder Bob’s supporters are entitled to feel encouraged by a record which includes four wins from the gelding’s last seven runs.

Recommendation: 1 pt win BOLDER BOB at 6/1