Rowleyfile Preview: 2018 Northumberland Plate

Anyone writing a trends-based preview of an historic race – as is my brief on these pages – is faced with something of a dilemma when the circumstances of the race in question have altered radically in recent times. Should one plough on with what information exists or give up altogether?

That is an appropriate question where the Northumberland Plate at Newcastle on Saturday is concerned. The race was first run nearly 200 years ago and long since settled into its role as a valuable long-distance handicap. But it was switched to Newcastle’s synthetic Tapeta surface in 2016, which altered the dynamics, and one imagines those trends, though to what exact degree is difficult to ascertain.

Fortunately, perhaps, that 2016 running coincided with the creation of a consolation race – the Northumberland Vase – meaning that we have four qualifying races to consider, rather than two, and that seems just enough to persevere.

The % of Rivals Beaten measure, devised by me over a decade ago, is made for this sort of thing, for it considers not just whether a horse won or lost but how many rivals it beat and how many rivals beat it. The increase in information means that smaller sample sizes can be tackled than by more conventional means.

There are a few aspects which have to be dropped – such as BHA mark, which will be different for the consolation race than the main prize – but the following are some of the more valid ones.

With just two furlongs to the fairly sharp stands’ turn, and 20-runner fields in all but one of the qualifying races, it may not be so surprising that horses on the inside have come off worst. Nor is it a surprise that younger horses have outperformed older horses and that horses high up on Timeform adjusted ratings have outperformed those that were not.

Perhaps the most unexpected finding is that one for performance by Early Position Figure. An EPF of “1” indicates a front-runner, at least early in a race, and they have beaten 55.4% of their rivals in all British handicaps with 12 or more runners in 2018. At the other end of the scale, horses with an EPF of “5” (in rear early) have beaten just 40.6% of their rivals in the same races and over the same time period.

However, in the Northumberland Plate and Vase, those figures have flipped, with front-runners faring poorly and late-comers faring well. As has often been stated, pace is a by-race phenomenon and should therefore be viewed on a by-race (rather than by-course) basis. But, in very similar races, and on the same track, Newcastle’s longish straight and against-the-collar finish has enabled closers to play their part.

Both the Vase (due off at 1:30) and the Plate (2:05) have enough prominent-racers to prompt an “even” pace expectation. It may be difficult to get to the front early and stay there.

That is a consideration where the Plate favourite Withhold is concerned, though he managed to boss a much bigger field when winning the Cesarewitch at Newmarket in October on his most recent outing. He has also yet to run on Tapeta but did finish second on Polytrack two years ago.

Against that, Withhold is the “right” age, is drawn satisfactorily and can be given a major chance on form despite being 12 lb higher than for that Newmarket win.

It seems not unreasonable to hope for odds rather bigger than 7/2, however, and alternatives exist at bigger prices, such as in the form of Prince of Arran and Lord George, both five-year-olds who are drawn wide.  

The latter is not only trained by the most in-form handler on display (as judged by %RB in handicaps in June) in James Fanshawe, but he has form at this course and distance, including a fourth in this race 12 months ago.

Lord George has gone up in the weights quite a bit since, but with justification. He won at Kempton in January and ran a blinder in the Marathon on AW Finals Day at Lingfield last time, despite the race turning into a sprint.

I had him a 10/1 chance and he is available at longer at the time of writing. The shape of the race means that each-way is a better option than win only, all other things being equal.

The same trends can be applied to the Vase, in which Davy’s Dilemma is perhaps most interesting at the odds, as an in-form four-year-old from a decent draw. But there are question marks about both his stamina and his ability to perform on Tapeta, so I will pass.

Recommendation:

0.5 pt each-way Lord George at 14/1, ¼ the odds first four places.