Rowleyfile Preview: 2018 International Handicap

The uncertainty surrounding Saturday’s big race – the King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes at Ascot – also pervades other races on the card to some degree. Cracksman has been declared for that contest but will run only if significant rain falls before the off, which is at least possible.

If he does not, it will scupper many an each-way bet as the field will reduce from the “dead eight”. Nothing that drastic will befall the day’s big handicap – the Gigaset International Stakes, for which 29 have been declared – but that “will it, won’t it, rain?” conundrum threatens to compromise analysis.

Some of the ingredients will not alter, or will not alter by much, however, and it is worth focusing on them, starting with how the pace and draw could pan out. The following gives the Timeform Early Position Figures (with 1 indicating a front-runner and 5 a horse which races out the back) for Saturday’s declared runners plus draw data for the race itself over the past 10 years.

There is remarkably little to see with the draw, which has been measured by % of Rivals Beaten for the stall in question and the two stalls on either side (where they exist) to lessen variance. Some of the higher stalls and lower stalls have positive records, but there is not a lot in it.

Pace is a different matter. There is not a great deal of it overall – if an EPF of less than 2.4 is used as a proxy – but the majority of what exists can be found in single-figured stalls. It is not clear what, if anything, will set an honest pace in the top half of the field.

There are also a number of the usual “trends” to consider (higher figures in the Place Impact Value and %RB columns to the right at best).

In contrast to many all-aged handicaps at this time of year (especially those at longer distances), three-year-olds have not fared well in this race: four-year-olds and five-year-olds have accounted for all winners in the last decade.

Higher-weighted horses have outperformed lower-weighted horses, if not by a huge amount. Last-time winners have not done all that well, at least compared to horses which have finished quite close up on their most recent starts without winning. Longer absences have been a negative indicator on the whole.

If you were to pick one horse on “trends” it might well be Makzeem, a five-year-old, high in the weights, and with a respectable last-time effort to his name. The problem is that, not only is he drawn high and away from the majority of the pace, he is clear favourite at the time of writing.

The bookmakers respect Makzeem’s fifth place in the Bunbury Cup, and with justification. But they don’t seem to respect other prominent finishers in that race as much.

In particular, I think SPANISH CITY is over-priced given how he shaped that day. The Roger Varian-trained five-year-old led for much of the closing stages in a race in which the majority of those to finish close up came from further back. Timeform had the race finishing speed at 99.2%, indicative of a good, though not overly-strong, gallop.

Winning tastes sweet for Burnt Sugar in the bet365 Bunbury Cup Handicap at @NewmarketRace

Watch LIVE on ITV pic.twitter.com/zzKkA734g1

— ITV Racing (@itvracing) July 14, 2018

Spanish City dead-heated for second with Shady McCoy that day behind Burnt Sugar. There should not be much between any of the Bunbury Cup principals on revised terms, but Spanish City is one who may not have stopped improving. Lightly-raced for one of his age, he had won two of his four starts earlier this season (all of them at Saturday’s distance of 7f).

Spanish City could end up in No-Man’s Land in the centre – he is drawn in 15 of 29 – but at least his jockey has the option of going far side (or even near side if things pan out differently than expected). His other credentials look sound, including his admirable consistency to date.

That last element is pertinent with regards to how to support Spanish City. This race is better tackled each-way than win-only, in a purely mathematical sense, and Spanish City does at least seem a horse who will give his running even if he fails to find the length or two required to win.

It is also the case that one-fifth the win odds first five places is fractionally better for the punter than one-quarter the win odds first four. But if you shop around you may be able to do better still.

Recommendation: 0.5 pt each way SPANISH CITY at 16/1