Rowleyfile Preview: 2018 Great St Wilfrid Handicap

Ripon – the so-called Garden Racecourse – does not get much time in the spotlight, but this coming Saturday is one such occasion. The William Hill-sponsored Great St Wilfrid Handicap, due off at 3:15, is the most prestigious and most valuable contest of the year there, and it throws up another tricky puzzle for punters this time round.

Twenty runners have been declared for the 6f straight event, and the best place to start with an evidence-based analysis is with the likely effect of the pace and draw (the two are inextricably linked).

At first glance, there is not a lot in that draw, as measured by % of rivals beaten in the last 10 editions of this race, but the flanks have been marginally better than the centre, probably as a result of those in the latter group usually being switched to come near or far side.

There may also not be a great advantage in terms of where the pace is, but the real forcers (as measured by Timeform Early Position Figures) are to be found in the lower half of the field. Held-up horses should have every chance of getting involved from single-figured stalls.

Other evidence-based findings arise from a consideration of the “trends” associated with the last 10 Great St Wilfrids.

Four-year-olds have outperformed their elders, judged by % of rivals beaten, though not to a large degree. A prominent finishing position on a horse’s most recent run and a good chance on Timeform weight-adjusted ratings are more obvious positives.

Those weight-carried findings are more unexpected. Not only has the fairly narrow mid-range done quite well in terms of %RB, it has provided eight of the last 10 winners at a rate two and half times of what would be expected by chance.

The runners on Saturday with saddlecloth numbers from 9 to 15 fall into that category.

Other “trends” were looked at but threw up little. For instance, there is no discernible bias in terms of length of absence or number of previous runs in the current season.

There was also not a lot in terms of “trainer form”: the vast majority of handlers with runners in Saturday’s race were in the 50s in terms of %RB in handicaps since the end of June. Ed Walker (Aeolus) sneaks ahead on 62.1%, for what it’s worth.

There is no clear “trends” horse in this year’s Great St Wilfrid, the way I look at things, with perhaps Golden Apollo (four-year-old, second last time, high up on Timeform ratings and only just outside the mid-range of weights) closest. And he is drawn in the middle, if close to the main pace.

Good betting always comes down to an appreciation of value (and the discipline required to capitalise on that), and any analysis of a race – however much or little it is based on evidence – should seek to identify horses whose chances are out of kilter with their odds.

Having considered the above, as well as more conventionally “form”orientated factors, I priced up the Great St Wilfrid and have come to the conclusion that one horse should be clear favourite and yet isn’t at the early prices.

That horse is the top-weight Spring Loaded, a better-than-ever sprinter who fares particularly well in strongly-run contests in which others come back, meaning his come-from-behind run style is not disadvantaged.

This did not materialise as much as might have been expected in the Stewards’ Cup at Goodwood last time, when Gifted Master and Justanotherbottle dominated from the front and Spring Loaded finished strongly from the rear to be seventh.

Growl, who reopposes on Saturday, shaped similarly that day, but was less isolated for the majority of the race and overall looks no better than fairly handicapped. By contrast, Spring Loaded could not have appeared much more upwardly mobile than when bursting through late to win a valuable race at Ascot on his previous start by a clear margin.

Spring Loaded is likely to end up in Group company sooner rather than later, but Ripon’s Great St Wilfrid looks made for him before then, if he can get the breaks better than he did at Goodwood. Given where the pace is, his draw could prove ideal: he should be about 7/1 in my book.

A 20-runner handicap is usually good material for an each-way bet, and that is the case again here. The win book is 124% at best early prices but the place book is only 103%, with each way splitting that difference.

Recommendation: 1 pt each way SPRING LOADED at 12/1, 1/5 odds first five places