Rowleyfile Preview: 2018 Grand National

Those who claim that the Grand National – generously sponsored again this year by Randox Health – is “just another staying handicap chase” since significant alterations to the fences at the end of 2012 probably have not had a crack at previewing the race in a public context.

Those alterations have led to fewer fallers, and a consequent increase in pulled-up horses, but the course still takes plenty of jumping and the distance (shortened slightly and remeasured at 4 miles 2 furlongs and 74 yards) takes a lot of getting. A maximum field of 40 runners makes this anything but just another day at the office for all involved.

It is a moot point just how much so-called trends count for given the changes, but the race is unique, if unique in a slightly different (and, I would argue, better) way to previously. Let us look at what some of those trends reveal.

There is nothing especially over-riding about most of those figures. Younger horses have fared moderately well as judged by % of rivals beaten (where 50% would be par), while last-time winners have made the first-four 1.6 times as often as suggested by chance.

The best figures of all are those for horses with a good chance on Timeform weight-adjusted ratings (a small cohort which has placed nearly three times as often as by chance) and with a respectable chance on the same (as judged by %RB). There is a small negative for horses who had more than five runs in the season in question.

None of those is a huge amount of help in trying to solve the puzzle, but the likelihood of a generous pace – with no less than 14 horses having Timeform Early Position Figures of 2.2 or less (indicating a front-running or pressing style) – seems pretty strong, which, along with softer ground than usual, suggests the race will be even more attritional than usual.

Many of the right sorts of horses are near the front of the market, including the Cheltenham Gold Cup third Anibale Fly and a horse who departed when running a big race in that in Total Recall, plus last year’s fourth Blaklion. And many of the rank outsiders look to deserve their unflattering appraisal. But I have found a couple in between that I think are over-priced and capable of giving a good account of themselves.

First off, there is Ucello Conti, one of three representatives from the brilliant Gordon Elliott yard, and who has encouraging “previous” over these fences. The 10-year-old managed sixth to Rule The World in 2016 and was going well when hampered/unseating at second Becher’s 12 months ago. He also managed a close fourth in the Becher Chase here at the end of 2016.

All of those efforts were under Daryl Jacob, and it may be significant that he had a 7-lb claimer on for both starts this season. He still managed an excellent second to Anibale Fly at Leopardstown over Christmas before an uncharacteristically poor display at Gowran.

Ucello Conti is, as a consequence, a couple of pounds lower than for either of his appearances in this race previously despite seeming every bit as good as ever. He is a fair bet to get round and a fair bet to go close if he does.

The other selection is a somewhat similar type, in that he has been here, done that, and got the t-shirt. Gas Line Boy got only as far as the first in 2015 but has since finished fifth to One For Arthur in last year’s race and won the Grand Sefton over the same fences in December.

Indeed, he seems to be better than ever now, at the time of life when many racehorses are on the wane. He would have won over the Mildmay fences a couple of months before that Grand Sefton win but for coming down three from home and most recently ran a creditable third at Sandow

Gas Line Boy gets to go off 10-10 and a BHA mark of 148 and could legitimately have been given a few pounds more than that.

Much will depend on luck along the way – that much has not changed about the “new” Grand National – and there is no standout bet this year in my eyes. But backing each way remains a better option than backing win-only, all other things being equal.

The win book at the time of writing is 122% (you would need to stake £122 in total in proportion to each horse’s odds to guarantee a return of £100 whatever the outcome), but the place book is just 107%, and might well have a positive expectation if you can get more than four places.

Hopefully, making the first four will be something both horses achieve shortly after 5:15 on Saturday.

Recommendations: 0.5 pt each way UCELLO CONTI at 20/1 and 0.5 pt each way GAS LINE BOY at 33/1, both ¼ the win odds first-4 places