Rowleyfile Preview: 2018 Golden Mile Handicap

Form, timefigures, sectionals, “trends”, jockeyship, effectiveness on the going: they all, and more besides, should come into the reckoning when tackling the Unibet Golden Mile Handicap at Goodwood on Friday.

But, whatever else you do, make sure to put aside some time to consider the effect of the draw and pace. The race may be the most draw-dependent in the Calendar, with 20 runners turning right-handed by about 100 degrees, most of it before halfway has been reached.

If you do not believe me then consider the following draw data from the past 10 runnings of the race, with recoding for changes in stalls numbering in 2011 and for non-runners. The % of Rivals Beaten figures given are for the stall in question and the two stalls on either side (where they exist), in order to lessen variance.

In the imagined absence of the two reserves, which will cause those outside them to shuffle across either one or two places, the historical performance of horses in single-figured stalls has been notably good, while the opposite has been true of those in 12 or higher.

This is along the lines of what you would expect given the course conformation, if not necessarily to such a stark degree.

However – and it is quite a big “however” – we have the curious situation this year of the large majority of likely pace-setters and prominent-racers (as identified by those Early Position Figures) being berthed in the outer stalls.  

A “good” draw could easily become a “poor” draw if a horse up the inner gets reined back and finds itself behind a wall of horses, including that handful of pressers coming through from the outside.

It would still be preferable to be a prominent racer in a low-numbered stall, rather than a high-numbered stall, but there are very few such qualifiers to choose from. We will come back to this.

Among other interesting trends are a couple for age and for BHA mark.

Sadly, and perhaps oddly, there are no three-year-olds in the field on Friday, and indeed they have been thin on the ground since the age group managed back-to-back wins in 2012 and 2013.

There has still been a bias towards younger horses – four-year-olds, that is – over older ones, but it is nothing like so pronounced.

Horses running off lower BHA marks have underperformed over the years, though such things may vary somewhat with the handicapping authorities failing to standardise their figures.

Initially, I was most interested in the four-year-olds Seniority and Fire Brigade, both from low stalls. The former won twice at Chelmsford earlier this season and had excuses when a respectable eighth in a typically strong Hunt Cup at Royal Ascot, though he has gone up a further 2 lb for this.

Fire Brigade is on the same mark as when second at Haydock in April, since when he has had a breathing operation then shaped with plenty of encouragement at Newcastle.

However, they are among the market leaders with at least some of the bookmakers at the time of writing, and a better-value option may exist elsewhere.

Instead, and mindful of the degree of interference that has been in evidence at the Sussex track already this week, I am going to go against the more traditional trends and in favour of that draw and pace information.

Repercussion is a decidedly useful handicapper on his day, if one who runs the odd stinker. He showed both sides of his character on his last two starts, when winning well from Zwayyan at Nottingham then running down the back in the aforementioned Hunt Cup at Royal Ascot.

That volatility will mean that he is likely to be a much bigger price than the two horses just mentioned, and if things pan out as hoped then he should be able to sit prominent without expending as much energy as those coming from the outside.

Despite such a profile, a win-and-place bet on Repercussion is preferred to a win-only bet. A 20-runner handicap is prime each-way material, with the win book at 116% and the place book at just 96% at best odds at the time of writing.

Even if you disagree with the conclusion as to what is a good bet, what type of bet is a good bet is less open to question!

Recommendation: 0.5 pt each way REPERCUSSION at 20/1, ¼ odds first 4 places