Rowleyfile Preview: 2018 Duke of Edinburgh Stakes Handicap

The Duke of Edinburgh’s Award is supposed to be a difficult but fulfilling challenge – or so I am told, I managed to skip it at school – and perhaps its organisers should include trying to crack the race with much the same name on the curriculum in the future.

The “difficult” element would certainly be met, with 19 apparently closely matched handicappers in this year’s Duke of Edinburgh Stakes, but whether fulfilment is to be achieved remains to be seen.

As with any such challenge, you can go into it blind, or you can go into it prepared. The result may be the same, but at least you are likely to beat yourself up less if you do the latter. The following are a few Duke of Edinburgh (Stakes) facts for you to consider.

Judged over the last 10 years, younger is better: indeed, no horse older than five has won it this century, and a fair few have tried. There may be similarities between the race and the Award here.

As with the King George V Handicap at the same distance the day before, horses drawn low have come off worst, though not to quite the same degree. The reason for this has been much debated on social media, along with the World Cup and something called Love Island: the conclusion seems to be that horses up the inner get cut off as others come across.

Last-time winners, high up on Timeform adjusted ratings, have fared well, both in terms of Impact Values and % of Rivals Beaten.

Horses on a short turn around have done well by the former measure but not by the latter. More unambiguously, horses that have been off for in excess of eight weeks have performed worse than would be expected simply by chance.

We can also look for trainers operating at a good level as judged by %RB in handicaps in the last month: Charlie Fellowes (75%, Newlands), Aidan O’Brien (71%, Clear Skies), Roger Varian (65%, Appeared) and Alan King (61%, Top Tug) are best by that measure.

It can also be assumed that the gallop in the Duke of Edinburgh will be an honest one, with Crowned Eagle and Nayel confirmed pace forcers and several others, including Dash of Spice, likely to be on their heels.

The vast majority of the declared runners “fail” one or more of the tests, though that does not mean you should put a line through them overall: “filtering” is not the correct way to look at trends information.

Nonetheless, the aforementioned DASH OF SPICE ticks a number of the right boxes. He is a four-year-old last-time winner, who has a fine chance on Timeform ratings and is drawn in stall 14, coming here on an absence of just 20 days.

That last-time win came on Derby Day at Epsom, where he ran only a bit slower than Masar had done in the big race in scoring by six lengths. A rise of 11 lb in his mark clearly makes things more difficult, but it could have been harsher than that.

That was only the sixth race of Dash of Spice’s career and he looks to be improving in leaps and bounds. He is an unknown on true top-of-the-ground, but it was good going and drying quite quickly that day.

The other truly progressive runner in the field is Thundering Blue, who won easily at York last time but who does not seem guaranteed to see out this longer trip on a stiff finish at the end of a well-run race.

Duke of Edinburgh excursions do not always go according to plan, of course, and in this instance I think it is worth including one in your calculations who meets few of the conventional criteria but who is a big price and showed up well on sectionals last time.

That one is SIR CHAUVELIN, who is too old on the face of it. He still managed to finish fourth in a decent time in the 10f Zetland Gold Cup at Redcar on his latest start, despite being given too much to do.

Sir Chauvelin ran at distances between 9f and 18f last year, but around 12f is where all of his winning has occurred and he should be helped by the return to this trip. He gets to go off the same mark as at Redcar.

Recommendations: 1 pt win DASH OF SPICE at 6/1, 0.5 pt win SIR CHAUVELIN at 40/1