Rowleyfile Preview: 2018 Ascot Stakes

The wait for Royal Ascot does not quite rival the wait for Cheltenham (which makes up at nearly 365 days), but now that the former is upon us again the sense of anticipation in this quarter is every bit as high.

There are five days of top-class action to look forward to, involving runners from around the globe, and events which take place here may define divisional pecking orders in the season overall.

That much we know. We also know that the ground is likely to be on the quick side of good, but not as lightning fast as was the case at the course in May, judged by Going Stick readings, at least to begin with.

Racegoers will be hoping for lots of warm and sunny weather, connections of some of the runners rather less so.

What is far less certain is what is going to win, of course. First up for consideration with these daily big-handicap previews is Tuesday’s Ascot Stakes over two and a half miles and due off at 5:00, for which looking at some 10-year trends is once again a good starting point.

The most important figures in there are those of % of Rivals Beaten (with 50 being par) and the Place Impact Value (with 1.00 being par). Wins alone are a crude measure and can sometimes give a misleading impression.

The take home from those numbers are that four-year-olds have performed quite well, as have lighter-weighted horses and winners already in the current season (especially last-time winners). Horses with a good chance on Timeform weight-adjusted ratings have fared especially well, which is how things should be!

You would usually expect a handful of four-year-olds to show up, but there are only two this year: Look My Way and White Desert, both of whom are last-time winners. They are both lightly weighted, but only White Desert strictly qualifies by carrying less than 9st 2lb.

There are other factors to consider, of course, including the jumps form shown by some of the runners – the Willie Mullins-trained runners Meri Devie and Lagostovegas come out best on Timeform ratings by that measure – and the current form of the various trainers.

You can also consider the draw, which is not quite as odd as it might seem at this distance if you think of the race as a large-field 6f one to the first turn followed by a more conventional 14f one thereafter.

Stalls 6 to 10 and 16 to 20 have the best records, with horses up the inner in particular in danger of getting compromised in the early stages. For what it is worth, the aforementioned White Desert is satisfactorily berthed in stall 9.

It is difficult to get away from the claims of White Desert from a trends point of view, and I liked what I saw in more general terms. That last-time win came impressively by six lengths over 14f at Wolverhampton, which is a course at which we have sectional and striding information, courtesy of TPD and ATR.

The figures suggest that White Desert will stay very well – not entirely a surprise given that he is a half-brother to the Melbourne Cup runner-up Red Cadeaux – as he has quite a long stride (25.6 feet) and notably slow cadence (peaking at 2.22 strides per second and going as low as 2.02). He could easily come into his own now that he is tackling a marathon trip for the first time.

It is not all positive for the sole Godolphin/Charlie Appleby representative, for he was hit with a 10 lb rise in his mark for that Wolverhampton victory, which could have been a little kinder but does mean he gets a run. His best effort is now on all-weather, but he is a winner on turf and has had only five runs. All in all, I made him about half the price he can be backed at in the early exchanges.

The win book for the Ascot Stakes at best early prices comes in at 117% (you would need to stake £117 in total in proportion to all the runners’ odds to guarantee a return of £100 come what may) but the place book comes in at just 94% for four places and 89% for five places.

You are not able to bet place-only with fixed odds bookmakers (for this very reason) but you are allowed to back each way, which is the wise move in this instance. The five-place option is marginally preferred.

Recommendation:

1 pt each way White Desert at 16/1, 1/5 odds first FIVE places