Rowleyfile Preview: 2017 Grand National

Few races are as much of a one-off as the Grand National at Aintree, a marathon test over unique fences and for a massive field, watched by millions from around the world. As such, it might be imagined that the race lends itself to “trends” analysis much more than most.

That was certainly the case once, but there are good reasons to think that things have changed. The iconic fences were made more forgiving a few years ago, and the race is fundamentally different as a result. I, for one, welcome that. 

There have been no equine deaths in the Grand National itself since the alterations in the winter of 2012, though more time needs to pass to be sure that the situation has definitely improved. However, many fatalities are as a result of falls, and we can be pretty confident that falls are not as common in the big race as they once were.

The following graph gives the percentages of fallers/unseateds/brought downs, against those for pulled-ups, in the 10 years before the alteration compared to the four years since.

The figure for fallers has dropped from 43.9% in the “before” to 28.5% in the “after”. More horses getting round has been at least partly responsible for the increase in pulled-ups – from 19.0% before to 27.2% after – as more horses are still standing to become fatigued late on.

Where more than twice as many horses fell, or similar, than pulled up, now the two categories are almost identical.

The present-day Grand National is less about jumping prowess and pure luck in avoiding incidents, and more about ability and stamina, though it must be acknowledged that the average starting price of a placed horse has gone up at the same time. As a result, it can be questioned just what relevance results from before 2013 have on events as we find them now.

In most cases, that would be the end of the matter: either take the long-term trends or leave them. But the large number of runners in the Grand National means we can look at results for just those last four years, providing we use a measure which is more sophisticated than “did the horse win or lose?”. Percentage of rivals beaten is just such a measure.

The following figures are for various familiar categories – and include runs, wins, first-four places and impact values (success compared to chance) – but % of rivals beaten is the best indicator of all.

There is not a lot going on there once the variance associated with cruder measures is ignored, but younger horses have done better than might be expected, while horses running off higher BHA marks have done worse.

A good chance on adjusted Timeform ratings is a positive, if slightly more so for those bubbling under on the ratings than those who lead the way. There is remarkably little in it for length of absence, and for most recent position (accepting that the sample size for “fell etc” is too small from which to judge).

Quite clearly, the Grand National – sponsored this year by Randox Health – is not just “any old staying chase”, but many of the usual factors which apply to staying chases apply here, too.

This time last year, I put up The Last Samuri because he appeared the best-handicapped horse in the race, was in form and was a solid jumper and stayer. He finished second, having touched even money in play at one point. Each-way backers were happy enough but could have been happier still!

This year, there is a very similar candidate in Definitly Red. He even won the same Grand National prep that The Last Samuri won – the Grimthorpe Chase at Doncaster – off the same BHA mark, though by an even wider margin, and it was The Last Samuri who was toiling in his wake.

Definitly Red has long promised to make into a smart chaser but has only recently really begun to get things together. He has won four of his six starts in the last year and looks like getting better still for attempting a marathon trip.

Definitly Red has been most reliable in the jumping department when racing on ground softer than good (his unseat on his penultimate start was as a result of his being hampered). At the time of writing, the going-stick reading on the Grand National course and the first-day times are commensurate with ground that is softer than good. The National course is even being watered!

The long and short of it is that I would have Definitly Red in at single-figure odds, but he is available at bigger, and that justifies a bet. The same “value” argument does not apply to many others, though Tenor Nivernais and Thunder And Roses look interesting at much bigger prices.

Let us keep things simple: one horse, one bet, though an each-way bet at that. The maths make it clear that each-way betting is better than win only on the race: you would have to stake £134 in proportion to every horses’ odds to guarantee a return of £100 whatever the outcome on the win market, but only about £95 to achieve the same on the place part of an each-way bet.

That assumes one-quarter the odds for the first five places, but you may be able to do even better than that if you shop around. Whatever you do, it is worth taking an early price, as Grand National starting prices have tended to come out at much higher than that 134 over the years.

Recommendation: 1 pt each way DEFINITLY RED at 11/1, ¼ the odds first five places

Read Nic Doggett's 2017 Randox Health Grand National Preview

Read Jamie Lynch's 2017 Randox Health Grand National Runner Guide