Rowleyfile Preview: 2017 bet365 Gold Cup

The 2016/2017 jumps season draws to its conclusion at Sandown Park on Saturday, and what a season it has been in many respects.

While the performances of some of the sport’s stalwarts warmed the cockles, it was the younger brigade which really fired the imagination. One of the benefits of getting old – there has to be one, surely – is that you can say “this is the best…” without accusations of merely having been born yesterday.

This has been the best season ever for novice chasers in my view. Any one of Altior, Thistlecrack and Might Bite in Britain, and Our Duke and Great Field in Ireland, was good enough to have been a champion novice chaser in a normal season. There is much to look forward to in 2017/2018!

It might be imagined that “the younger brigade” would hold sway in Saturday’s season finale, the bet365 Gold Cup, as younger and less exposed horses tend to do in handicap chases. That is not the case.

While the fairly small representation of under-8s has done slightly better than par, as judged by impact values and % of rivals beaten, it is actually the veterans who have fared best, winning three and placing in 11 from just 24 runners (both more than twice as often as could be expected by chance) while beating 61.3% of their rivals.

Those are stronger stats than for other measures looked at.

There is essentially nothing in it where BHA mark (or weight carried, which is associated) is concerned. Horses with good chances on adjusted Timeform ratings have fared well, other than in terms of winning (!). A last-time win is good, and a last-time non-completion is not. And a short turn-round has been a minor negative in the last decade. 

The moderate performance by last-time fallers/unseateds is usually of little concern, but there is a sizeable historical sample for once, and two of the leading contenders on Saturday – The Young Master and Sugar Baron – are in this category.

Sugar Baron was a strong fancy for the Scottish Grand National at Ayr last time but got only as far as the first before parting company with his jockey. That might not have been his fault, but it has to be said (and probably should have been said by me last time) that his jumping had not always been convincing previously.

The back straight at Sandown is not a great place for a horse with jumping problems, especially one who takes plenty of stoking, as Sugar Baron does. He fell on his only previous visit here.

That Scottish Grand National saw two old-timers hit the frame, in Benbens and Alvarado, and the former is back for more here.

Benbens got a long way back that day and finished best to be beaten just over two lengths, and that despite his amateur rider putting up 2 lb in overweight. Sam Twiston-Davies takes back over here, so that Benbens is effectively running off a mark that would have seen him win, or very nearly win, one of the season’s other elite staying handicap chases last time.

You might imagine that Benbens would be at single-figure odds in a field of 13 just a week later, but you would be wrong: he is 20/1 at the time of writing.

That quick turn-round may not be ideal, but it is not as if Benbens did something he had never done before at Ayr: he won off a mark even higher in the first half of last season and had been an even closer third in the Scottish Grand National two years earlier.

Benbens was helped by a good (but not cut-throat) pace last weekend, and there is a fair chance that the same will apply here. Henllan Harri and Present Man go from the front, and The Young Master and Le Reve race close up (if in form).

In-form horses are not ten-a-penny in this year’s bet365 Gold Cup, with Doing Fine – who won what might have been a weak race impressively last time – Present Man and Rock The Kasbah the obvious qualifiers on that score. But none of them went close in a valuable 30-runner contest on their latest start.

That is what can be claimed on behalf of Benbens, and backing him to run the same sort of race this time, with hopefully an even better outcome, is not a difficult decision when he is the price he is.

The baker’s dozen of runners means that this is not an especially appealing race in which to bet each way. The win book is about 123% (you would need to stake a total of £123 in proportion to the horses’ odds in order to return £100 regardless of the outcome) and so is the place book at one-quarter those win odds the first three places.

Win only is the way to go, and the recommendation is to side with one of the few in-form horses in the field at what looks a generous price.

Recommendation: 1 pt win BENBENS at 20/1