Rowleyfile Preview: Wokingham Handicap

The effect of the draw is again a subject of much discussion at Royal Ascot this week, even from some who professed in the past that the draw itself is largely inconsequential.

Jockeys on the first two days mostly ignored the far side in straight-course races, but Thursday’s opener was won by a horse racing in a small group there. Going Stick readings on that day suggested the flanks would be significantly quicker than the centre.

The problem about such things is that they are subject to both human intervention and human misinterpretation. There have been occasions when groupthink has prevailed, and there have been occasions when groupthink has been challenged and found to be wrong.  

Then, there is the distribution and effect of the pace to consider in conjunction with the draw. In summary, the draw matters, but it may not matter in exactly the way that is popularly supposed at any given time. Who said horseracing is as simple as a bunch of horses running round a field, eh?! 

With those caveats up front, I offer up the following draw and pace map for Saturday’s Wokingham Handicap at Royal Ascot, with the former derived from the last 10 editions of this prestigious six-furlong handicap.

The takeaway is that the likely pace is fairly evenly distributed, with the possible exception of the lowest few stalls, and that, historically, very high-numbered stalls have done well while those in the middle have not.

It is also worth considering the evidence of other trends from the last 10 years, the most pertinent of which – that I could find – are as follows.

Older horses have a notably poor record in this race, though “older” should be viewed as seven-year-old plus, not six-year-old plus as might be concluded from looking crudely at wins only.

Horses running off higher marks have fared better than might be imagined, horses with good chances on Timeform weight-adjusted ratings have done predictably well, and horses which finished second or third the time before have a surprisingly good record.

It has to be said that none of those higher in the handicap is obviously well treated – none running off a BHA mark of 105 or more is within 5 lb of Timeform’s top-rated – but that has not stopped such horses figuring prominently in the past.

It also seems to be the case that a reasonable number in the Wokingham field might be more at home at a different distance. In a race likely to be decided by fine margins, that could well make all the difference.  

That accusation might be directed at Edward Lewis, who has been shining at the minimum trip of late, looking unlucky when a strong-finishing fifth in the Dash at Epsom last time, but that seems unfair. The gelding was twice second in big-field handicaps at this distance at Haydock last year, and he has shown no signs of stopping at the end of his races this year, which have included wins at Beverley and Lingfield.

Edward Lewis could be strongly fancied at his best, and it is possible that too much has been made of those stamina doubts and his draw in stall 7.

The latter could prove an advantage or a disadvantage, it is difficult to tell. But there is a contender at least as good as him on the opposite side of the track, which allows us to cover more eventualities.

That horse is Projection, who is drawn in stall 28 (will become 25 with expected non-runners) and who has spent much of his recent life looking like a big-sprint-handicap winner in the making.

He shaped well twice at Newmarket and once at Goodwood from just three starts in 2016 and again on the former course when possibly needing the run in May, on which occasion he went as short as 7/4 in running in a 14-runner field.

Projection gets to go off the same mark as in the last-named here and is one of the few in the field arguably still with potential.

A bet is a bet, and the usual advice would be to back these two each way as the mathematics indicates. But there are doubts about how the race will pan out and about precisely how both horses will cope, so win only is favoured in this instance.

A good contender drawn high and a fairly good contender at a bigger price drawn low will hopefully give us a good shout come what may.

Recommendations: 1 pt win PROJECTION at 10/1, 0.5 pt win EDWARD LEWIS at 25/1