Rowleyfile Preview: Royal Hunt Cup

This coming Wednesday will be the longest day of the year in the Northern Hemisphere, and anyone looking to cram all their form study for the Royal Ascot card into the first part of that 24 hours is in for a marathon session.

Fortunately, 48-hour declarations means the card was known by lunchtime on Monday, and anyone with the time and inclination can get a headstart.

If you have the inclination, but not the time, then you may wish to consider the following, which will look at the day’s big handicap – the Royal Hunt Cup – and try to establish some of the facts around it before coming up with a couple of recommended bets.

To start with, it is worth looking at the historical effect of the draw and the likely distribution of the pace for the race. The former is derived from the % of rivals beaten by the stall in question and the stall on either side in the last 10 runnings of the race, the latter from the Timeform Early Position Figures of the runners in question (the three reserves have been ignored for this exercise).

In summary, the draw has had less of an effect than might be imagined, but horses drawn very low have not fared well, while most of the anticipated early pace is in stalls 16 and higher.

It is difficult to start up front and stay there on this fairly stiff straight mile unless being gifted a soft lead, as Zhui Feng was in the Victoria Cup here in May, but being drawn away from the pace could lead to having too much to do. The appeal of more patiently-ridden horses among those drawn middle to high is enhanced somewhat as a consequence.

Then there are some of the other trends to consider, with place impact values and % of rivals beaten the most meaningful measures.

An impressive seven of the last 10 winners have been four-year-olds, but that has been from a large representation, and that age group has over-performed only fractionally when judged in a more nuanced manner. Horses older than six have not done well, but there are only four such in the field proper this year.

A last-time win and a good chance on Timeform weight-adjusted ratings are positives, but not greatly so. Overall, there is not a lot to get excited about in any of those findings.

I also looked at how trainers with runners in this year’s race had fared in handicaps since April, again measured by %RB. Sir Michael Stoute (60.0%), Charlie Appleby (61.1%) and William Haggas (63.1%) have done well from sizeable samples, while Jeremy Noseda (67.0%) and Denis Coakley (68.9%) have done even better but from smaller samples.

Coakley has an interesting runner in this in Hors de Combat, who joined him at the end of last year and who has four solid efforts in handicaps to his name since. He ran the upwardly mobile Oh This Is Us to a neck at Bath in April (El Vip in third) then got too far back and checked in his run when ninth in the aforementioned Victoria Cup on this course. He should be suited by a return to a mile for good measure.

Hors de Combat is on a long losing run, but there does not seem to be anything wrong with his resolution and his place record is healthy in any case. He is a hold-up type drawn – in stall 23 – where the pace is likely to be.

The other recommendation is a horse who won this race two years ago, GM Hopkins. That was off a mark of 103, and he paid for it, running off 112 (a mark a Group performer might struggle to defy) 12 months ago.

The BHA handicapper has relented and he is down to 105, having had little go his way in the Victoria Cup off 108 last time. GM Hopkins has proved his worth in big-field handicaps over this straight mile, and if he is as good as he was then he should at least place.

That Victoria Cup was won by Fastnet Tempest (who has gone in at Chester again since), who is justifiably among the favourites here, though he is a free-going sort who could be found out by the longer trip. George William was arguably even more promising in second, but he is going to have to have luck from stall 1 on this occasion.

Both Hors de Combat and GM Hopkins are big prices at the time of writing, and a place from one of them will guarantee a profit.

As usual, an each-way bet does seem the way to go: the win book is about 128% in the early exchanges but just 88.5% for a place if five places are offered. Mathematically, an each-way bet is much better than a win-only bet in such circumstances.

Recommendations: 0.5 pt each way both HORS DE COMBAT and GM HOPKINS at 33/1, ¼ the odds first five places