Rowleyfile Preview: Duke of Edinburgh Handicap

Track records tumbled on a fast-ground opening day of Royal Ascot 2017, and even overnight watering slowed conditions only slightly for day two. Some blistering sectionals on both days underlined further that speed is likely to remain at a premium throughout the meeting.

That, allied to the possibility of a somewhat tactical affair, should inform readers’ picks for the concluding Duke of Edinburgh Handicap on Friday, a race in which none of the 19 declared runners (plus three reserves) could be described as a front-runner and only a few have been known to press the pace.

There are other factors that should be borne in mind, of course, including what the trends from the last 10 years say about the kind of horse that generally performs well in the race.

As usual, these are measured in a number of ways in this column, including by impact values (success compared to pure chance) and % of rivals beaten. Higher is better in both cases.

Four-year-olds – which constitute over half of Friday’s field – have done better than par, while six-year-olds and older have done worse. The latter age-group have provided no winners and just three first-four places from 32 representatives in the last decade.

As with other large-field races on Ascot’s round course, lowly-drawn horses have (perhaps counter-intuitively) underperformed. A last-time win and a good chance on Timeform ratings have been distinct positives, and a lengthy absence the opposite. BHA mark and weight carried, along with a few other measures, revealed little of note.

In addition to the above, it is worth considering stable form, which was measured by %RB in handicaps since the end of April until the beginning of this week. Roger Varian (70.0%) comes out best, followed by Jeremy Noseda (67.0%), James Fanshawe (62.0%) Charlie Appleby (61.1%), Alan King (60.9%) and Sir Michael Stoute (60.0%). Hugo Palmer brings up the rear on 41.8%.

A cursory glance at the Form Book might result in some head-scratching as to why Noseda’s Sixties Groove is close up in the betting, but even a cursory glance at the video for his reappearance run at Epsom on Oaks Day answers that one.

Sixties Groove ended up in a hopeless position in a slowly-run race and could not have done much more to catch the eye in running on into seventh under hands and heels. Despite this, the race-day stewards saw fit not to look into the performance.

Had the bookmakers been as accepting as those stewards, then we might have got ourselves a cracking bet at something like 16/1. But, predictably, they are not, and Sixties Groove is at about half that price in the opening exchanges. He could win, but he will not be carrying my money at those odds.

The Stoute-trained Mainstream is another who went into plenty of notebooks with his reappearance third to Frontiersman in a red-hot handicap at Newmarket on 1000 Guineas Day, not least because his closing sectionals were so good. He should go well again off just 2 lb higher but is a quirky sort, often slowly away and demonstrating an awkward head carriage, and those bookies are again not giving much away with the gelding at joint-favouritism.

In the end, I found it difficult to get away from the claim of one of the Varian-trained trio, Wadigor, who fits those trends in being a four-year-old last-time winner, as well as being from the most in-form of stables, of course.

Wadigor has won all three of his races, though that has led to a swift increase in his handicap mark from the 81 he won off by seven lengths at Newmarket last October, to the 96 that he shrugged off with ease at Kempton in May, to the 104 he is asked to run off here. If he wins, it is likely to be Group races next.

The son of Champs Elysees showed no shortage of toe in those victories, running 35.47s for the final three furlongs at Kempton. In normal circumstances, it might be wondered if he had the requisite stamina for an extra furlong on a stiffish track like Ascot, but not on such quick ground and with no promise of much pace. It should be no problem on breeding in any case.

As usual with races of this nature, the mathematics point towards an each-way bet rather than a win-only bet, with the early win book at 128% and the place book derived from that at 102% per place for four places. Stakes are at a minimum for a tricky contest in which my odds and the bookmakers’ odds largely agree.

Recommendation: 0.5 pt each way WADIGOR at 7/1, ¼ the odds first 4 places