Rowleyfile Preview: Betfred Cambridgeshire Handicap 2016

If you were planning your own in-depth analysis of the Betfred-sponsored Cambridgeshire Handicap then I hope you have made a start already, as the race – along with the Cesarewitch on the same course in a couple of weeks’ time – has more form to wade through than just about any other of the Flat season.

There have been 35 horses declared for Saturday’s contest, including the winners of the last four editions and more than a few other stalwarts. After an admittedly fairly basic preliminary look, I managed to whittle it down to 34.

We need some help, or at least a “way in” to the race, which can be where trends and associated measures come into their own.

As is usual with the former, I looked at the last 10 runnings of the Cambridgeshire and measured each category by runs, wins, first-four places, impact values (wins and places expressed as a multiple of chance) and % of rivals beaten. The higher the figure the better in each case (other than runs, of course).

These are the findings.

There are not many really strong figures there, though horses without a win in the season under review have won just once from 100 representatives, which is only about a third as often as might be expected.

Perhaps the other most interesting finding is that horses carrying 9-00 or more have won and placed only about two-thirds as often as chance and underperformed in terms of % RB also. Fourteen of Saturday’s field come into that category.

A prominent last-time position can be viewed as a plus – more so even than usual – while those figures for age-group and draw are rather erratic: where an effect exists, it is usually distributed more evenly than that.

Nonetheless, three-year-olds have done reasonably well overall, while horses drawn very high have not. The latter did not stop Prince of Johanne winning from the equivalent of stall 29 in 2011, however. Keep an eye on any track biases.

Another feature of this year’s Cambridgeshire is that there are remarkably few pace-forcers in the field. Just one horse has a Timeform Early Position Figure of less than 2.0 (Ode To Evening, drawn 5), though a further four come in at 2.2. All but one of that quintet are drawn 13 or lower.

The race – which is usually well-run – may not pan out as favourably as usual for hold-up types, who will, of course, have a lot of traffic in front of them to boot.

One other thing to consider is the current form of the trainers with runners, which may be judged by % RB in handicaps since the start of August. The best scorers with a significant number of runners are John Gosden (GM Hopkins, 72.6%), Luca Cumani (Banksea, 64.7%) and Sir Mark Prescott (Celestial Path, 61.3%).

The first recommendation is the aforementioned Banksea, who I had disputing favouritism with last year’s winner Third Time Lucky, but who may be backed at 14/1 compared to that one’s 8/1 in the early exchanges.

Banksea has a strong profile, as a lightly-weighted, progressive three-year-old with a good last-time run to his name, and he both stayed well enough to win at 10f at Pontefract in June and to finish second at 8f on flatter tracks at York and Doncaster on his last two starts. A draw in stall 14 puts him near the likely action, while a mid-pack position has served him well to date.

The last four Cambridgeshires have been won by horses running to Timeform ratings 14 higher than their BHA marks. Can Banksea (BHA mark of 99) run to 113? Well, he is rated 112 already, and has never been better, so I think he can.

There are a handful of horses at longer odds who look over-priced to varying degrees, and I am going to put up one of them despite his being a poor fit on trends.

American Artist has not won this year, but he was beaten just a short head off today’s mark of 90 at Doncaster on his reappearance and shaped encouragingly after a break at Sandown last time. He needs to improve a few lengths to win this, but that is by no means far-fetched, and I expected him to be shorter than the 33/1 several bookmakers have him in at for this.

American Artist could be seeing a fair bit of Banksea during the race, as he has a similar run style and is drawn in 12. I will settle for a dead-heat between the pair!

As it is, at least one of the major bookmakers is making an each-way bet very attractive, so a win (or a dead-heat) may not be needed in order to turn a profit.

At the time of writing, you can get one quarter the odds the first six (!) places. The win book weighs in at around 144% (you get only £100 back for staking £144 to cover every possible outcome proportionally), but the place book returns at a mere 83% per place. That is too good for us to turn up our noses at.

Recommendations: 1 pt e/w BANKSEA at 14/1, 0.5 pt e/w AMERICAN ARTIST at 33/1, both ¼ odds six places (check bookmaker terms before placing bets).