Rowleyfile Preview: Ascot Stakes

With five days of Royal Ascot 2017 ahead of us, we have a mixture of knowns and unknowns with which to deal.

We can be sure of plenty of high-class racing, and we can be almost sure that conditions will be on the quick side, at least early on: the ground is forecast as “Good to Firm, Good in places” – which is backed up by Going Stick readings – and hot weather with no rain is forecast.

Plenty else is up for grabs, but these big-handicap previews will try to reduce the guesswork by presenting facts and offering evidence-based interpretations. Along the way, the aim is to show a profit on recommendations, as was the case in 2016, when Jennies Jewel (advised at 12/1) and Kinema (8/1) won and Librisa Breeze (25/1) rewarded each-way support.

The first puzzle to crack is the Ascot Stakes Handicap on Tuesday, which features just the 20 closely-matched runners. A consideration of the trends – over the last 10 years and measured by Impact Values and % of Rivals Beaten among others – is a good place to start.

There are some meaningful and some not-so-meaningful conclusions to be drawn. A good chance on Timeform ratings, a win last time, neither a short nor a long layoff, and a slight advantage to four-year-olds over other groups are among the former.

Judging effects by the crude measure of winners only can mislead, as shown by the performance of older horses, who have provided more than twice as many winners as could be expected by chance but fewer horses in the first four than random and a below-average % of Rivals Beaten.

There is an interesting detail in that draw data (which takes into account the fact that the numbering of stalls was switched before 2011 Royal Ascot), as well.

You might imagine that low numbers, nearest the rail on this right-handed course, would be advantaged, but the evidence suggests otherwise. High-numbered stalls – which are less likely to get crowded and carried back in the run of over 6f to the first turn – have done markedly better in terms of wins, places and %RB.

That is in direct contrast to the Chester Cup, the latest running of which took place in May, and in which the first two home in a field of 17 came from stalls 2 and 3. Who Dares Wins came from the equivalent of stall 5 to finish fourth and Magic Circle came from the equivalent of stall 16 to finish fifth.

That pair go in the Ascot Stakes and look to hold good chances, as they ended up having too much to do at Chester from positions in mid-field. The performance of Magic Circle was particularly meritorious given his draw: he gets stall 20 this time, but, as we have seen, that may be no disadvantage at all.

Before that, Magic Circle won a useful handicap at York in 2016 and shaped encouragingly after a break at Kempton in April. He remains on a winnable mark and is unexposed at marathon distances.

While Magic Circle is not favoured by some of the trends, his recent form gives him a good chance, and trainer Ralph Beckett is performing well at present (59% RB in handicaps since April). Jockey Silvestre de Sousa could not be in a much better place right now, either.

I had Magic Circle at 7/1, whereas a double-figure price is available for him early doors: a big run is a realistic expectation.

There are plenty of dangers, of course. But one of them, Thomas Hobson, seems a poor price for a race of this nature on his return from hurdling: both Who Dares Wins and Beyond Conceit would be marginally ahead of him over timber at the weights.

A more interesting alternative to the selection is Cartwright, who is the “right” age and who sports a visor for the first time after a poor effort on soft going last time. But he does not look as over-priced as Magic Circle to my eyes.

Whether to back win or each way in the Ascot Stakes is one of the easier “knowns” to deal with. In mathematical terms, the latter is much better than the former. You would have to stake about £127 proportionally to every horse’s win odds to guarantee a return of £100 regardless of the outcome, but you would have to stake just £99 to achieve the same at one quarter the win odds for four places.

That is one reason why conventional bookmakers do not allow punters to back place only, but a win and place bet (that is, an each-way bet) makes a good deal more sense than a win-only bet, all other things being equal.

What’s more, you may get better each-way terms nearer the time if you shop around. Good luck!

Recommendation:

1 pt each way MAGIC CIRCLE at 12/1, one quarter the odds first 4 places