Rowleyfile Preview: Becher Chase

One of the most important questions to be answered about Saturday’s Randox Health-sponsored Becher Handicap Chase at Aintree is “will all 16 declared runners stand their ground?”

Veteran readers of this column will know just how advantageous the place part of an each-way bet gets when there are 16 (or a few more) runners and one quarter the win odds for four places, in particular when, as on Saturday, there is a short-priced favourite.

The arithmetic is pretty simple, you divide the horse’s fractional win odds plus one – or a quarter of those win odds plus one for the place element – into 100 and sum the result for all horses. If the total comes in at less than 100, then the market is in the punters’ favour.

The figures for the Becher at early odds are 116 for the win book and 89 for the place book. This means that there is nearly a positive expectation for each-way bets, which is something that happens only rarely.

Fingers crossed then that the field remains at full strength, for even one non-runner will make a bet a fair bit less appealing.

Veteran readers will also be accustomed to the evidence-based approach in which we weigh up how results over the past decade look when judged by things like first-four impact value and % of rivals beaten (more sophisticated measures than are conventionally used).

This is what that evidence says in this instance:

There are no outrageously strong trends there (or in the other areas that were looked at), but nine-year-olds have performed well, as have reappearing horses. Perhaps most surprisingly, horses with a poor last-time position (out of the first sixth or non-completers) have done a bit better than par when quite a bit worse would usually be the case.

That last nugget is probably a reflection of the uniqueness of the course on which the race is run. It is the Grand National course, no less, though the runners complete only about a circuit and a half of the famous arena rather than two of them.

The ability to get round has a higher premium on it in this sort of race than usual, while the need to be in red-hot form has a lower one.

Blaklion has demonstrated his aptitude for the former with a fourth in the Grand National proper in April despite going for home a bit too soon. He has also demonstrated his current form with an excellent second to Bristol de Mai at Wetherby a month ago.

He has strong claims, for sure, but does he really deserve to be less than 3/1 in a race in which chaos can abound? I think not.

There are others with equal or stronger claims on the “horses for courses” front, for a start. Not least of these is The Last Samuri, who was second in the Grand National and third in this race (off the same mark) last year, and who bounced back from an uncharacteristically poor effort in the latest Grand National with a second from a high mark over hurdles recently.

The Last Samuri is more than twice the odds of Blaklion and more appealing as a betting proposition as a result. I had him priced at 6/1 on my tissue and he is available at bigger than that.

I also think it is worth siding with Viva Steve at a bigger price in the same Rooney colours. He is the “right” age and position in the handicap, and he ran pretty well in Ireland on his only appearance this season. 

That was almost three months ago, but Viva Steve is a horse with a good record when fresh. Also, his stable is in notably good form.

Fergal O’Brien not only runs an entertaining Twitter feed (which seems to have more involvement of the man himself than does, say, the Nicky Henderson one), but he is proving to be a fine trainer. His %RB in jumps handicaps since October is – at 62.4% – second only to Donald McCain among trainers with runners in the Becher.

Viva Steve has yet to tackle these one-off fences, but he has a 100% completion rate over fences and makes errors only occasionally to boot. He does not stay marathon distances but was not stopping last time under conditions which were similarly testing to how Saturday’s are likely to be.

So, the proposition is to take two of the four nine-year-olds in the race, though both horses have more going for them than that alone.

Recommendations: 1 pt e/w THE LAST SAMURI at 8/1 and 0.5 pt e/w VIVA STEVE at 16/1, both ¼ the odds, 1, 2, 3, 4.