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Royal Ascot 2018 Ratings Update: The Group 1s

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In part one of this week's Ratings Update, Nick Seddon highlights the major changes to the Timeform ratings from the Group 1 races at Royal Ascot 2018.

Queen Anne Stakes

The Queen Anne appeared to back up the suspicion from the Lockinge that the current crop of older milers aren’t a great bunch. Top level form was at a premium – Rhododendron (down 2 lb to 121) the only domestic Group 1 winner in the line-up - and she wasn’t in the same form as when scoring at Newbury.

This opened the door for two handicappers on the upgrade to bridge the gap into this company, in the form of Accidental Agent (up 5 lb to 123) and Lord Glitters (now 121), both running down Lightning Spear (down 2 lb to 124) in the closing stages, who again had to settle for a place despite looking all over the winner.

Eventual winner Accidental Agent had looked more a candidate for the Royal Hunt Cup than this when sixth in the Lockinge, but he was much better served by this race and track and put up a career best in a substandard renewal. He wouldn't be sure to confirm the form with the placed horses, and, with the division lacking a top-class older miler, the three-year-olds are likely to pose a big threat in the Sussex Stakes at Goodwood.

King's Stand Stakes

The King’s Stand was the headline act on the opening day of the meeting, with a supposed showdown between Battaash (remains on 136) and Lady Aurelia. Battaash undoubtedly won the battle, blowing almost all of the field away with his blistering speed and taking his place alongside the likes of Orfevre, Zenyatta and Hawk Wing as being more memorable as a runner-up than the winner, but he ultimately lost the war, running out of speed and succumbing to Blue Point (up 5 lb to 129) late on.

Blue Point filled the role Nunthorpe winner Marsha has left behind, seemingly in the right place at the right time, though his class shone through in the fact that he was able to survive the onslaught up front, having never been more than three lengths off the pace.  A performance of this calibre from him hardly came out of the blue, given his general trajectory bar Hong Kong in April, but at the same time his rating from this is a little easier explained than reproduced, as few sprints develop quite like this.

Mabs Cross’ sharp rise through the ranks continues (now 117), and although she picked up the pieces here to grab third, she now has some very valuable black type to her name. Meanwhile, Lady Aurelia’s mesmerising victory in this race last year will ensure she remains part of Royal Ascot folklore, but her best days seem behind her now.

St James's Palace Stakes

The lack of two of the three major Guineas’ winners meant that the door was open for an improver to take his place in the St James’s Palace Stakes (only the Irish Guineas winner Romanised arrived here), and Without Parole (up 8 lb to 125p) duly took up the invitation, quickly making up into the best of his generation - he’s likely to play a big part in the top races over a mile this season. Runner-up Gustav Klimt (up 4 lb to 123) ran his best race to date, though the overly-forceful ride given to his team-mate U S Navy Flag (remains on 120) set things up for him to close late on.

Prince of Wales's Stakes

Wednesday’s feature, the Prince of Wales’s Stakes, centered around Cracksman (remains on 136) in the build-up, who entered the race 12 lb clear on his 2017 form, but he disappointed, never travelling at any stage and not even close to the form he showed over C&D last October. It might seem odd to say about a colt that has won two more Group 1s this year, but suddenly he does have a bit to prove, and it wouldn't be at all surprising if headgear was applied in the King George given the recent signals.

Poet’s Word (up 5 lb to 129) took advantage, producing a career-best effort in the process even though he was up against below-par rivals on the day. The front two pulled clear of the remainder of the field and Poet’s Word has to rate as a leading contender for next month’s King George.

Ascot Gold Cup

Whilst last year’s winner Big Orange was missing from the Gold Cup, it was a strong renewal on paper, with four Group 1 winners heading into the race, and it duly produced one of the best renewals of recent years as Stradivarius (up 2 lb to 127, loses ‘p’) held off the strong challenge of the French raider Vazirabad (123).

It was only in the final furlong that the front two picked up Torcedor (up 3 lb to 123), while the 2016 winner Order of St George (128) was far from disgraced back in fourth, but the six-year-old is perhaps not quite the same force as he was. A repeat engagement at Goodwood looks likely for several of these, and Stradivarius will be one to beat providing there’s no lasting damage from his excursions at Ascot (pulled up lame).

Commonwealth Cup

Despite only being in its fourth year, the Commonwealth Cup has proved to be a great success so far, already establishing itself as a bona fide Group 1. Eqtidaar (up 9 lb to 120p) produced a very smart performance to hold off the challenge of Sands of Mali (119), having seemingly gotten to the front soon enough, and he is likely to prove the best of these moving forward. The older sprinters are a strong bunch, however, and he will need to find more if he is to make a significant impact in open Group 1 contests.

Coronation Stakes

One three-year-old who will pose a major threat to the older generation, though, is Alpha Centauri (up 11 lb to 127), who produced what was undoubtedly the performance of the meeting to completely blow apart a strong field in the Coronation Stakes. The 1000 Guineas winner (Billesdon Brook, now 116), the one-two from the Pouliches (Teppal, now 111 and Coeur de Beaute, 111) and last year’s top two-year-old Clemmie (down 3 lb to 115) were among those in her wake, as she produced a performance as good as any seen over this trip in Europe this year, and the best in this race for at least the last 25 years.

Diamond Jubilee

Finally, the Diamond Jubilee produced one of the most exciting finishes of the week, though it be remembered as much for the start, with Harry Angel (132) getting upset in the stalls and losing all chance as a consequence, returning lame – an injury which may yet prevent him from running in the July Cup. Instead, Merchant Navy (126), picked up the race in the dying strides to score. It remains to be seen whether we’ll see him again, or if he’ll head back to Australia for stallion duties.

The first four were all tightly packed at the line, and each of the three in behind the winner could argue that their horse was better than the bare result. French raider City Light (up 2 lb to 126) ran a fine race in defeat, passing the front-running Bound For Nowhere (123) late on, and the Maurice de Gheest would seem an obvious next step for him. The Tin Man (now 124) was unable to repeat his win in this race, but he ran another fine race at Ascot, and will continue to give a good account this term.

Click to read Ratings Update: Two-year-old races

Click to read Ratings Update: Handicaps

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LATEST HORSE RACING RESULTS

20:50 FFOS LAS

1st David Probert silk 4. CRACKERGEE 7/24.5
2nd Jason Watson silk nk 2. PREMIER (FR) 5/16
All 6 ran.
FULL RESULT

20:40 LINGFIELD PARK

1st Paddy Bradley silk 2. SAIL ON SAILOR 9/43.25f
2nd Billy Loughnane silk 1 4. CASE STUDY 4/15
3rd Luke Morris silk nk 7. FALLACIOUS PROMISE 3/14
T: Simon Dow  
10 ran. NRs: 5 
FULL RESULT

20:30 LEOPARDSTOWN

1st L. T. McAteer silk 16. ONLY ONE SCOBIE (IRE) 25/126
2nd Nicola Burns silk 5 6. COSMIC FUNK (IRE) 12/113
3rd Shane Foley silk 2 10. BEAR RIGHT (IRE) 8/19
13 ran. NRs: 1  15  17  8 
FULL RESULT

20:20 FFOS LAS

1st George Wood silk 3. BUCK BARROW 6/52.2f
2nd Daniel Muscutt silk nk 1. ADRIAN (GER) 9/25.5
J: George Wood  
6 ran. NRs: 2  6 
FULL RESULT

20:10 LINGFIELD PARK

1st Rossa Ryan silk 8. RON'S ANGEL 8/111.72f
2nd Saffie Osborne silk ½ 10. ZIGAZIG AH 7/24.5
3rd Marco Ghiani silk 6. LAST DANDELION 9/110
J: Rossa Ryan  
T: John Butler  
All 10 ran.
FULL RESULT

20:00 LEOPARDSTOWN

1st G. F. Carroll silk 6. DALER (IRE) 12/113
2nd L. T. McAteer silk 10. MOLTO AMICHI (IRE) 5/16jf
3rd G. M. Ryan silk 15. COOLEY'S MIST (IRE) 33/134
15 ran. NRs: 14 
FULL RESULT

19:50 FFOS LAS

1st Kieran Shoemark silk 5. WILLOW WOOD (IRE) 16/54.2
2nd Ray Dawson silk 1. REEM RAK (IRE) 11/112
3rd Jack Dace silk ¾ 9. MICK THE HAT (IRE) 13/27.5
T: Ed Walker  
All 9 ran.
FULL RESULT

19:40 LINGFIELD PARK

1st Robbie Downey silk 7. RIVER IN PARADISE 66/167
2nd Billy Loughnane silk 4. FIRE THUNDER (IRE) 8/111.72f
3rd Silvestre De Sousa silk ¾ 8. ROCSANE (IRE) 17/29.5
All 10 ran.
FULL RESULT

19:30 LEOPARDSTOWN

1st C. T. Keane silk 3. HOW'STHEBAI (IRE) 5/23.5f
2nd Reese Holohan silk 4. MONVOE (IRE) 11/26.5
J: C. T. Keane  
7 ran. NRs: 8 
FULL RESULT
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