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Ratings Update: Van Dyck paints a pretty picture

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Adam Houghton rounds up the major changes to the Timeform ratings after a weekend of classic action at Epsom Downs, including an enthralling - if below par - renewal of the Investec Derby.

Having swept all before him in the key trials for the 2019 Derby, it was no surprise that Aidan O’Brien also dominated the main event itself, with Ballydoyle responsible for the winner (a record-equalling seventh for the trainer) and three of the four who battled it out for the minor honours.

The small margins between all of them – a little over half a length separated the first five past the post – prevent too high a view being taken of the form at this stage, and, for context, only Sir Percy (119 in 2006), Pour Moi (120 in 2011) and Ruler of The World (120 in 2013) have rated lower than Anthony Van Dyck (123, up 5 lb) amongst Derby winners since the turn of the century, with the renewals won by the first-named pair also notable for having produced similarly congested finishes.

 

Anthony Van Dyck had come up short at the highest level as a two-year-old, but he has come into his own since stepping up to middle-distances this season, following up from Lingfield with a success that looked unlikely until late in the day, a storming run up the rail landing the spoils. The Irish Derby is next on his agenda, but there clearly isn’t much between the principals here, and the different test that that race provides gives those behind a chance of turning the tables. Incidentally, he gave every indication from the way he finished that he would stay further, though the St Leger may be a target beneath him now with a stallion career in mind.

Upped markedly in trip, Madhmoon (122 from 115p) fared best of the non-Ballydoyle brigade in second, going like the best horse for much of the straight and just outpointed by a stronger stayer. A rematch with the winner at the Curragh wouldn't be a foregone conclusion, but supplementing for the Eclipse might be a better option, with a fair chance that he'll prove best at a mile and a quarter.

Japan (up 10 lb to 122p) and Broome (down 1 lb to 121) filled the next two places, the St Leger likely to be on the radar for both of them, given that they left the impression they would have been suited by an even stiffer test of stamina. Sir Dragonet (up 3 lb to 121p), on the other hand, looks likely to prove at least as effective back at a mile and a quarter and may yet the prove best of these, given that he lacked the experience of those who beat him; he has come a long way in a short space of time and remains one to very much keep on side.

Friday’s Oaks attracted the largest field for the race since 2014, but it was definitely a case of quantity over quality. Indeed, most of the trial winners involved had achieved a level still some way below that required for an average running of the Oaks, and the fact that form-pick Maqsad (down 1 lb to 112p) patently failed to stay and favourite Mehdaayih (up 3 lb to 110p) had a horrible run through led to the race taking even less winning than anticipated.

At first assessment, Anapurna (up 5 lb to 113p) is just about the lowest-rated Oaks winner this century, having been seen to maximum advantage given how the race developed. That being said, she still deserves plenty of credit for how much she has accomplished in just four career starts, and, given how good her trainer is with slightly tricky types (got worked up beforehand), it would be no surprise if she had even more to offer, likely to stay further than this, too, if and when the situation demands it.

Pink Dogwood (up 5 lb to 112p) stepped up on the abundant promise of her reappearance in second, sweeping through to lead two furlongs out, those exertions perhaps beginning to tell close home against a filly who was better positioned through the race, rather than that she was outstayed. Clearly a smart filly with more to offer, she will presumably go for the Irish Oaks and may well gain compensation. Stablemate Fleeting (up 5 lb to 110) completed the frame, doing well to make the places given where she came from, and is another who could be bound for the Curragh.

The other Group 1 on Friday’s card was the Coronation Cup, a competitive renewal on paper in which only 3 lb covered seven of the nine runners on weight-adjusted ratings. The form looks well up to standard for the race, too, despite two of the first three in the market failing to give their running, with Defoe (up 2 lb to 126) proving at least as good as ever to finally record a top-level success, staying on strongly up the far rail to overhaul Kew Gardens (remains on 127) inside the final furlong.

The merit of the first two is now fairly well established, and while both should continue to give a good account, the suspicion is that they will be vulnerable to bona fide top-class sorts if reopposing as expected in the King George.

The two listed races on Friday’s card both went the way of Charlie Appleby and Godolphin, courtesy of Pinatubo (up 7 lb to 101p) and Space Blues (remains on 117p). The former improved from his debut to follow up in the Woodcote Stakes, despite not really acting on the track, and will be well worth his place in one of the key two-year-old races at Royal Ascot, with the Chesham appealing as perhaps a better option than the Coventry at this stage (likely to stay seven furlongs).

The Royal meeting is also likely to be on the agenda for Space Blues, who was value for extra when following up his York handicap success in the Surrey Stakes. Recent winners of this race have tended to struggle to make the jump to pattern company, but that may well change this year – this son of Dubawi looks potentially very smart and, seemingly a seven-furlong specialist, it would be a surprise if he wasn’t able to make his presence felt in the Jersey Stakes.

Saturday’s Princess Elizabeth Stakes was another race at the meeting that failed to deliver what it had promised, with the pair who dominated the market – Veracious (down 4 lb to 112) and Nyaleti (down 1 lb to 113) – both below form for one reason or another.

That left Anna Nerium (up 3 lb to 111) and Awesometank (remains on 110), who fought out the finish of a listed race last time, to fill the first two places once again, with the form clearly nothing out of the ordinary for the grade. The first three – Veracious ran only respectably under a 3 lb penalty to complete the frame – all hold entries in the Duke of Cambridge Stakes at Royal Ascot, but that will be a tougher assignment than this altogether.

The form of the Diomed Stakes has a more solid look to it, with Zaaki (remains on 120) continuing his good start to the campaign in getting the better of the tough yardstick Oh This Is Us (remains on 118) and, in the process, lowering the course record that had stood for 28 years.

The winner didn’t look entirely at ease on the track, but he still proved at least as good as ever to justify late market support. The Summer Mile appeals as a suitable target in the coming weeks (not entered at Royal Ascot), though he'd likely be as effective back at a mile and a quarter.

 

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