Ratings Update: Newmarket Cambridgeshire Meeting 2016

It's been a busy few days in British racing, so let’s get straight down to it. There were 25/1-shocks in both the Group 1 races at Newmarket on Saturday, with The Last Lion beating the short-priced Blue Point in the Middle Park Stakes and the odds-on Lady Aurelia only third behind Ballydoyle pair Brave Anna and Roly Poly in the Cheveley Park Stakes. The Last Lion was making his tenth start in the Middle Park and improved a chunk (now 114 from 106) to score by three-quarters of a length on his first try in a Group 1. It’s hard to figure where the improvement came from having come up short in lesser group races over the course of the season, but tactics obviously played a big part, with The Last Lion at an advantage in setting soft fractions. That said, he’s now won two of his three races over six furlongs and there's no reason why he won't hold his own in the top three-year-old sprint races next season, especially as he’s wonderfully tough. Blue Point couldn't confirm his Gimcrack superiority over the winner, but he was not seen to such good effect in a more tactical affair and the result of the York race is arguably still the best guide to his merit relative to The Last Lion. Blue Point remains with a high rating—now 120 from 121p—while the third-place Mehmas will likely retire to stud with a rating of 115.

Brave Anna not only got on track—after finishing sixth in both the Debutante and Moyglare Stud Stakes—but proved better than ever (now 115 from 103) as she beat her better-fancied stablemate by a short head. Brave Anna was well suited by being waited with off the strong gallop set by Lady Aurelia and, as such, was probably seen to something like maximum effect. Her best form is at six furlongs, though her strength at the finish here - not to mention her pedigree - suggests it was something other than the seven-furlong trip which was responsible for those two poor runs. Roly Poly confirmed her improvement from the Lowther (now 115+ from 113) and maybe deserves a bit of extra credit considering she raced closer to the strong gallop than Brave Anna. Trips beyond six furlongs are unlikely to pose her any problems and she’ll obviously deserve her place in the Guineas next year (or a trial beforehand if connections choose). Lady Aurelia overdid things a shade into a headwind over the stiff six furlongs and was over a stone below the form she showed when winning the Queen Mary (also found to have bled). She’s now difficult to rate confidently and has been left on 127, with the Commonwealth Cup reportedly her big target for 2017, though a return to five furlongs will probably represent her best chance of reproducing the high-class effort she put up at Royal Ascot.

There was a more predictable result in the Group 2 Royal Lodge earlier on the card as favourite Best of Days (now 107p) prevailed in a tight finish from the maiden The Anvil (107p) and dead-heaters Arcada and Sea Fox (both 105). Best of Days was suited by the step up to a mile and resumed winning ways without needing to do much more than repeat the form that saw him go close in the Acomb. He was made to work a bit harder than his SP might've suggested (heavily backed 6/5), though in fairness the race wasn't really conducive to a flashy performance and he remains with potential. For reference, it usually takes around a 10 lb better effort to win the Racing Post Trophy. The Anvil finished where he did in spite of the way the race took shape (came from even further back than Best of Days) and middle distances are sure to be his thing in 2017.

The Group 2 Joel Stakes didn't look the hottest renewal on paper, and that was even more the case in the event as it rather fell apart, with all bar the first two - Cougar Mountain (now 120 from 112) and Gifted Master (stays on 114) - somewhat disappointing on the day. The winner has never fully justified his vast early promise/reputation, being tough to catch right over the last couple of seasons, but on his day he's a real talent and this was very much one of his good days. Favourite Nathra (113) was never a threat and looked a bit ungainly in Dip, but stayed on to finish third without being unduly punished.

Fair Eva was again sent off at odds-on for the Group 2 Rockfel Stakes, with the step up to seven furlongs expected to suit after she’d lost her unbeaten record in the Lowther at York, but she met with the same fate and is now rated 108+ (from 112p). The winner Spain Burg had been progressing well in France—three wins from four starts coming into the Rockfel, including a listed success—and took another big step forward to score by a length and a quarter. She was value for extra too, given she came from off a modest tempo and saw things out strongly despite having been keen, with the extra furlong in her favour. She'll be suited by a mile and is likely to be aimed at the 1000 Guineas next spring (now vying for favouritism with Fair Eva and Roly Poly in an open market).

Best of Days’ win was a fillip for Hugo Palmer after his well-fancied Escobar had fluffed his lines in the Group 3 Somerville Tattersalls Stakes. The race went to Larchmont Lad who is improving all of the time and had probably learnt something from being involved in a very tight finish at Doncaster earlier in the month. He was a tad sharper for that run perhaps too, and this was a likeable performance to gain a first pattern win on just his third start. He’s now rated 105 and is sure to stay a mile, though probably no further. Ballydoyle’s Whitecliffsofdover ran well upped in grade to finish second and is a sizeable individual who should train on, especially when sent over a mile (he’s rated 103p), though arguably an even better prospect is the third Sir Dancealot who came from a poor position in relation to the first two and deserves credit for even briefly getting upsides. He’s now rated 106p, and this run proves he's effective on turf, as well as all-weather.

The Cambridgeshire went to Spark Plug who took his rating from 112 to 120 in the process. He is a tricky customer, his strike rate attesting to that, and doubts were creeping in as to whether he'd ever actually show himself to be well handicapped. But he put it all together on his first start over nine furlongs (stays a bit further) and getting his head back in front again might do something for him mentally; he certainly possesses the ability to hold his own off higher marks/at a higher level.

Dal Harraild, one of our Fifty To Follow this year, improved again when beating his elders in the listed Godolphin Stakes and is now rated 120p, while Journey has also been edged up (to 119) following her all-the-way success in the listed Nayef Stakes. Journey’s stablemate Laugh Aloud took a fair step forward (now 110) when winning the listed Rosemary Stakes and, finally, outsider of the field, Justice Belle, won the listed Rose Bowl and is now rated 104+.

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Click HERE to read Simon Rowlands' Sectional Debrief from the Cambridgeshire Meeting at Newmarket, and click HERE to read a special Ratings Update following the big races in Ireland Germany on Sunday.