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Ratings Update: Mustashry reserved his seat at the top table

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Andrew Asquith looks back at last week's racing and rounds up the major changes to the Timeform ratings.

York’s three-day Dante Festival kicked off last Wednesday and the performance of the day came from Invincible Army (up 5 lb to 125) in the Duke of York Stakes. It wasn’t a vintage renewal, but the improving four-year-old proved himself a high-class performer, looking a consummate professional both pre (took preliminaries very well) and post-race. The Diamond Jubilee at Royal Ascot is the obvious next port of call, and considering the likely contenders there, he deserves his place right near the top of the betting; his disappointing run at that meeting last year not much of a concern (won the Pavillion Stakes there earlier last season).

Thirty-five minutes later the Musidora Stakes proved an underwhelming renewal. A major Oaks trial that can vary quite a bit from year to year in terms of the performance required to win it, this very much at the lower end of the scale, Nausha (up 10 lb to 100p) firmly getting back on track to record a narrow success from Enable’s half-sister Entitle (100p from 79p). She only had to run to a useful level, though, and the clear unlucky story of the race was Frankellina (101p from 80p), who would have surely won had she got away on terms. She seems sure to stay a mile and a half and is likely to prove the best of these in time.

On Thursday, Lah Ti Dar (122) had form good enough to win an average running of the Middleton Stakes by some way, but didn't need to run to that level, though she still needed a better-than-average effort for the race to prevail narrowly from Rawdaa (116 from 108p). However, Lah Ti Dar was asked to do the bare minimum over an inadequate trip to come out on top, this an ideal platform for bigger targets ahead, with the Coronation Cup and the King George likely to be on the agenda this season.

The Dante Stakes beforehand revolved around Too Darn Hot (124 from 127p), the top two-year-old of 2018 who was denied his chance in the 2000 Guineas at Newmarket due to a minor set-back. He was possibly just short of peak fitness, but he was essentially beaten fair and square by Telecaster (123p from 104P), though Too Darn Hot did do well to bridge the gap to the front two when none of the others could. He hasn't grown much since last year and may not be so good as a three-year-old as he was at two, though it is too early to be adamant about that, and his next run back at a mile in the St James’s Palace will tell us more; however, he wasn't conclusively beaten by lack of stamina and is bred to stay this far and further, so on balance he probably isn’t one to take a short price about at Royal Ascot. Telecaster, on the other hand, confirmed his rapid progress this spring, taking the step up in class in his stride and showing himself a thoroughly worthy Derby contender, sure to be at least as effective over the longer trip. He needs to be supplemented for the Derby but hopefully he will take his chance at Epsom – the race will be poorer without him – but either way, he is open to further improvement and very much one to keep on the right side.

Good Vibes (up 14 lb to 95p) showed improved form to win the Marygate on Friday, but behind the front three, the form is no better than fair, and while she's clearly come a long way since her debut, as well as advertising her own Royal Ascot claims here, this is some boost to those of Chasing Dreams who beat her by five lengths at Newmarket first time out.

Last season's dominant stayer, Stradivarius (127), was the headline act in an excellent renewal of the Yorkshire Cup, and was made to work hard conceding 3 lb to an up-and-comer from Ballydoyle in the shape of Southern France (up 6 lb to 123), the first two finishing clear even though the gallop had eased mid-race before things began in earnest through the last four furlongs. Stradivarius will come up against some new faces again as he bids to follow up his Ascot Gold Cup win next month, with the likes of Cross Counter, Dee Ex Bee and Kew Gardens all potential opponents, but that was the race in which he achieved his highest Timeform rating so far in 2018, and this ought to help get him to his very best again.

The Lockinge Stakes took centre stage at Newbury on Saturday and it was a very open renewal with 13 of the 14 runners covered by 5 lb on Timeform weight-adjusted ratings. Mustashry (up 7 lb to 127) produced a much-improved effort to win a Group 1 at just the second attempt, clearly a late developer who is only now showing his full ability. Admittedly, he had things go his way, but there's no reason to think he won't be able to repeat this effort, and he now looks a leading player for the Queen Anne Stakes at Royal Ascot. Le Brivido (124) shaped better than the bare result, building on his reappearance, likely to have finished second with the breaks, and has a good summer ahead of him, while Laurens (120) will her work cut out to reverse placings with the winner at Royal Ascot, but the top fillies races at a mile looking to offer potential further rewards at this level.

The London Gold Cup is historically a race that proves very strong form, a regular pointer to pattern races, illustrious winners like Time Test, Al Kazeem and a Melbourne Cup winner in Green Moon all filling the roll of honour over the last 10 years. Roger Charlton – who trained both Time Test and Al Kazeem – enhanced his excellent record in the race with Headman (112p from 96), who got firmly back on the up and recorded a smart effort to take this valuable and most competitive handicap under top-weight. The return to firmer ground seemed to suit and, open to further improvement, a step up in grade is surely next on the cards, the Hampton Court at Royal Ascot an obvious next port of call. There was plenty of potential in behind him, too, the likes of Sinjaari (106p), Good Birthday (105p) and Forest of Dean (102p) all sure to be winning races in the near future, and will be of particular interest in races not restricted to three-year-olds.

Crystal Ocean (129) had plenty in hand on ratings in the Aston Park stakes and didn’t need to be at his best to land this race for the second year running. He went on to land the Hardwicke Stakes for his hat-trick last season, but the search for a success at Group 1 level after three second placings at that level means he may well contest the Prince of Wales's Stakes at Royal Ascot this time round, given he is as effective back at the shorter trip.

Read our York timefigure review here

 

 

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1st Jack Mitchell silk 4. TIME TO SPARKLE 16/117
2nd Billy Loughnane silk sh 9. SORTED (IRE) 7/18
3rd Harry Vigors silk 2. KARAKULA DANCER 2/13jf
T: James Keane  
All 10 ran.
FULL RESULT

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1st Hollie Doyle silk 8. PHIL'S DREAM (IRE) 5/16
2nd Joanna Mason silk 5. KIPP KELLY 10/34.33
3rd Billy Loughnane silk ½ 4. KENTO 6/42.5f
J: Hollie Doyle  
8 ran. NRs: 7 
FULL RESULT

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1st Billy Loughnane silk 5. WATER OF LEITH (IRE) 6/42.5f
2nd Jack Doughty silk 3 2. MUMAYAZ (IRE) 9/25.5
T: Jim Goldie  
All 7 ran.
FULL RESULT

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1st Robert Havlin silk 2. GALILEO CHARM 7/24.5
2nd David Probert silk ½ 12. SOUTH COAST STAR (IRE) 12/113
3rd Sean Levey silk nk 5. CORNICHE GIRL (IRE) 13/27.5
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2nd Luke Morris silk 1 12. WILL BE KING (IRE) 18/119
3rd William Carson silk 2 7. NUTCRACKER 33/134
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FULL RESULT

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2nd Billy Loughnane silk ½ 3. GAELIC APPROACH 7/42.75
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2nd Caoilin Quinn silk ½ 1. DOUBLE THE DANCE (IRE) 10/111.9f
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All 5 ran.
FULL RESULT

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2nd Sean Bowen silk 9 6. PORT AND BRANDY (IRE) 5/23.5
5 ran. NRs: 2 
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