Ratings Update: Dublin Racing Festival

“In analysis, context is king. Cheltenham is the contextual barometer for all personnel and performance through the season, and why wouldn’t you use and abuse it as such when there’s a wealth of data to determine what a champion should look like?”

Jamie Lynch wrote the above paragraph in his preview of the inaugural Dublin Racing Festival, and we got several good glimpses at what a champion should look like at Leopardstown this weekend.

Leopardstown Saturday

The Dublin Chase should quickly establish itself as the number one Queen Mother Champion Chase trial for Ireland's leading two-mile chasers. It saw contrasting emotions for Willie Mullins, as Min’s dominant performance - beating Simply Ned (now 157) by 12 lengths - probably didn’t quite do enough to overshadow Yorkhill’s abject one.

With the top-class trio of Altior, Douvan and Great Field yet to prove their well-being after training setbacks, Min (up to 169+) can now boast the strongest form of those Champion Chase contenders seen out so far in 2017/18 and current ante-post odds of 4/1 represent decent value in that context.

No mistake - Min wins the Coral Dublin Chase! @LeopardstownRC #DublinRacingFestival pic.twitter.com/UFC7Hd8SFf

— At The Races (@AtTheRaces) February 3, 2018

Yorkhill (who was weak in the betting) couldn't have made a worse start to the current campaign, turning in a lifeless display returned to much shorter here, though the trip was almost certainly just a side issue. With just over a month to Cheltenham, he has plenty to prove.

Special Tiara (down 1 lb to 164) was too free and is likely to perform much closer to his best when defending his Champion Chase crown back at Cheltenham next month, though minor honours are probably the best he can hope for this time (also third in both 2015 and 2016).

The Irish Arkle was a match between Footpad (up 5 lb to 165p) and Petit Mouchoir (up 4 lb to 155p) from an early stage, but it still appeals as very strong Grade 1 form - the pair in question having made the frame in last year's Champion Hurdle. Footpad is the best novice chaser seen out so far in 2017/18 and has taken his form to another level since switching to fences; he fully deserves to be a short-priced favourite for the Arkle at Cheltenham.

The image below shows where the performances of Footpad and Min rank in terms of the best timefigures recorded over fences this season.

Petit Mouchoir shaped encouragingly after four months off and may well come on for the run – he wasn’t given a hard time and could well emerge as Footpad's closest rival at Cheltenham too.

Supasundae confirmed himself a high-class performer (up 10 lb to 164) with a ready success over a below-par Faugheen (down 2 lb to 163) in the Irish Champion Hurdle after the pair had raced in the first two positions throughout.

Supasundae will reportedly still set to head to the Stayers Hurdle, though it would be no surprise should connections be tempted to supplement him for the Champion Hurdle on the back of this, while Faugheen’s connections were positive about his chances, but he’s clearly not the dominant force he once was. His stablemate Melon (loses ‘p’, now 159) produced the first disappointing display of his career after seven weeks off, the application of a first-time hood possibly having an adverse effect.

The overall result? 170-rated Buveur d’Air hardening into 2/1-on for the Champion Hurdle.

Around the courses

Buveur d’Air (170) wasn’t troubled by having to make his own running in the Contenders’ Hurdle at Sandown, while Terrefort (up 2 lb to 150p) and Cyrname (now 152) belied their inexperience as both jumped well en-route to serving up a tremendous finish to the Scilly Isles. The last two winners (in the same ownership as Terrefort) have gone on to finish runner-up in the JLT at Cheltenham, and that race looks the obvious target, though he wouldn’t receive weight from Cyrname there. The way Kalondra (now 143+) finished suggested all might not have been well with him on the day.

Barney Dwan (145+) was left with a simple task after his two main rivals fell in a novices’ chase at Musselburgh. Connections may have graded races at the Festival in mind, however Barney Dwan’s hurdles record shows his liking for a big-field handicap (second in last season's Pertemps Final) and he could be the type to figure in a big handicap chase in the spring.

Fifty to Follow member Topofthegame (now 144) won a messy renewal of the Grade 3 handicap, a doubling of the prize money leading to a maximum field of 18 declared. He isn't yet qualified for the Pertemps, so the valuable 3m handicap at Aintree might be the option over hurdles in the spring, but a return to fences is surely on the cards in the autumn. Runner-up Golan Fortune (up 10 lb to 138) improved again and isn’t one to underestimate next time on this showing.

"Hopefully this will kick-start my career" Tom Bellamy puts breath test failure behind him to land Wetherby feature on Ballyoptic ➡ https://t.co/UwfMCXhqRs pic.twitter.com/ijgTYpXoRA

— Racing UK (@Racing_UK) February 3, 2018

Over at Wetherby, Ballyoptic (149) fended off the dour stayer Vintage Clouds (142) to win an above-average renewal of the Towton, a race Blaklion won in 2016 before going on to land the RSA. The winner has the ability to take a hand in this year’s renewal (Grade 1 winning novice hurdler) and has run well at Cheltenham before. Third home Shades of Midnight (up 20 lb to 139) was much improved, worthy of extra credit, too, after making a rapid effort early in the straight which briefly threatened to be a race-winning move; he's one to look out for next time.

Leopardstown Sunday

With odds-on favourite Espoir d’Allen (loses ‘p’, now 140) patently failing to give his running, Mr Adjudicator (up 12lb to 144p) confirmed the impression he created on hurdling debut, maintaining his perfect start over hurdles with a hard-fought success over Farclas (up 9 lb to 132p), the pair clear.

Nicky Henderson, who saddled We Have A Dream (145p) to record a professional success at Musselburgh on the same afternoon and who also has Triumph favourite Apple’s Shakira, is unlikely to be quaking in his boots.

#RUKMomentOfTheDay: Triumph Hurdle still on We Have A Dream's agenda as he makes it 4-4 in Britain at Musselburgh

Watch all the finishes from Musselburgh and Taunton today for free in our results and replay section.https://t.co/7iJOPsvjqx pic.twitter.com/YpkFYZJjGr

— Racing UK (@Racing_UK) February 4, 2018

The Deloitte featured a performance - and a horse - of exceptional merit, Samcro (151P) leaving a host of useful, improving novices trailing in his wake. Brave Inca, Champagne Fever and Vautour took this race en route to landing the Supreme, but Samcro - who'd be a worthy favourite whichever Festival target is chosen - could just wind up a notch above even that crowd.

The performance of the RSA-bound Monalee (now 156p) in the Flogas was more workmanlike, but pleasing nonetheless. There may have been stronger renewals of this Grade 1 event that brought together any number of likely Irish contenders for the novice chases at next month's Cheltenham Festival but surely few as thrilling, the outcome in doubt until the latter stages with barely a length covering the first five jumping the last. Runner-up Al Boum Photo (up 9 lb to 154p) improved again despite a less than fluent round of jumping.

Monalee after his win @LeopardstownRC
"He didn't have an ideal preparation for this" says Henry de Bromhead. #dublinracingfestival pic.twitter.com/wWGuN22Pxq

— Racing UK (@Racing_UK) February 4, 2018

The Irish Gold Cup was a dramatic race, the leading changing hands several times in the latter stages. Five of the field had run in the Christmas Chase over C&D, and it was Edwulf – pulled up there – who sprang a somewhat fortuitous 33/1 surprise. It was a fairytale story for a horse who nearly died after the National Hunt Chase last March, but despite his improvement (now rated 165 from 150), his current odds of 20/1 for the Cheltenham Gold Cup make only limited appeal at present.

Killultagh Vic (up 9 lb to 167p) was back over fences for the first time since his dramatic success in a Grade 2 event here in early-2016 and would likely have won had he not departed when holding a narrow lead at the last. While he lay on the ground for some time afterwards, he did eventually walk away apparently unscathed and will be a fascinating contender if he does make it to Cheltenham for either the Ryanair or the Gold Cup itself next month.

Eventual runner-up Outlander (stays on 165) added to his fine record at Leopardstown, but it’s worth noting he hasn't troubled the judge in three previous visits to Gloucestershire. Our Duke (now 165) was well backed three months on from his Down Royal flop and went a fair way to getting back on track, a blunder at a most inopportune moment proving his undoing. He should strip fitter for the run and is certainly not one to write off with that in mind.

Around the courses

Claimantakinforgan’s (down 4 lb and loses ‘p’, now 144) Cheltenham claims were dented as he could only manage third behind Beyond the Clouds (up 7 lb to 138p) and Simply the Betts (now 127p) at Musselburgh, though a muddling pace wouldn’t have played to his strengths. Red River (up 13 lb to 143p) produced a good effort to comfortably see off the useful Mr Whipped (loses ‘p’, now 142) 35 minutes later, enhancing his own Albert Bartlett claims as well as those of his Sandown conqueror, the 150p-rated On The Blind Side.