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Ratings Update: Cue Card back to best before Gold Cup test

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Ben Fearnley highlights the major changes in the Timeform ratings following another busy weekend of National Hunt racing.

The feature Grade 1 race of the weekend was the Ascot Chase, and though it was a substandard field for the level, it provided a good opportunity for Cue Card to get back to the sort of form that saw him land the Betfair Chase back in the autumn. Cue Card – now Timeform rated 177 – was winning his second Ascot Chase four years on from his first and set himself up nicely for another crack at the Cheltenham Gold Cup in the process. Cue Card will just about set the standard there on form, though his younger/shorter-priced stable-companions Native River (167p) and Thistlecrack (175) have more scope for improvement, while there is still the age-old doubt over whether he has the stamina for the Gold Cup trip.

The Grade 2 Reynoldstown Novices’ Chase earlier on on Ascot’s card provided the winner of the National Hunt Chase last season (Minella Rocco, who finished second at Ascot) and could be a key race once again. Arpege d’Alene (144) has been short in the betting for the National Hunt Chase for some time, and went off favourite on Saturday, but he ultimately looked short of pace and will benefit from stepping back up in trip. Fletchers Flyer (146) is entitled to strip fitter for this outing (returning from nine weeks off) and shaped well in third, giving weight away all round. The winner Bigbadjohn (144) should have no problem in the National Hunt Chase trip based on how he shaped, while gallant front runner Flintham (142) should be winning races over fences himself sooner or later.

The time in the Reynoldstown was a lot slower than the listed handicap won by Tenor Nivernais 35 minutes later, and he is worth crediting with a much improved performance as a result. He is now rated 159 (from 151) and was perhaps rightfully trimmed in the betting for the Grand National after the race. This form suggests he can be competitive at Aintree, though he is of course unlikely to get home if repeating the same tactics.

The official trial for the Grand National came at Haydock, which unusually took place this year on less testing ground, perhaps closer to the norm at Aintree in the spring than the majority of recent renewals. With that in mind, both the winner Vieux Lion Rouge (157 from 149) and second Blaklion (159 from 153) will head to the National with solid claims. It’s easy to see why the former is now favourite for the race, given that he has winning form over the fences (Becher Chase on penultimate start) and based on this evidence seems a stronger stayer than when he didn’t get home in last year’s renewal.

Earlier on at Haydock, the Grade 2 Rendlesham Hurdle was won by Zarkandar (154), who was recording his first win for over two years after reportedly having had a breathing operation after his last start. He could go for the Stayers’ Hurdle next, though he has had a couple of goes in that race already and probably lacks the form to get involved again.

The Prestige Novices’ Hurdle was probably a race to be more positive about, however, and the winner The Worlds End 146p from 139p) looks well worth his place in the Albert Bartlett at Cheltenham. He gave 7 lb to the likable No Hassle Hoff – who had previously finished a good second in the River Don – and won by nine lengths to take his record under rules to four from five. Along with West Approach (155) and Wholestone (150p), The Worlds End will be right up there with Britain’s best chances on ratings if lining up in the Albert Bartlett.

J.P. McManus has seemingly got plenty of chances in the Champion Hurdle and Stayers’ Hurdle, though it isn’t fully clear where his pieces will all fall at this stage. Jezki (156+) has entries in both, but his defeat at short odds in the Red Mills Hurdle over two miles on Saturday at Gowran Park would seemingly put paid to any aspirations for the Champion. The winner Tombstone (146) will reportedly be aimed at the Aintree Hurdle in April.

Yanworth (167) is another of McManus’ potential Champion Hurdle hopefuls, though he was no more convincing when beating Ch’tibello in the Kingwell Hurdle at Wincanton on Saturday than he had been in the Christmas Hurdle. He hasn’t exactly shaped like a Champion Hurdler in-waiting on his last couple of outings, but the 2017 renewal is likely to take a fair bit less winning than usual, and his will to win is likely to stand him in good stead if he does take up his entry.

After making it five wins from his last five starts in the Grade 2 Boyne Hurdle at Navan on Sunday, Sutton Place (160p) would be in the mix for either the Champion or Stayers’, though he is reportedly highly unlikely to be supplemented for any of the Grade 1s at Cheltenham and will instead be targeted at a race at Fairyhouse on Easter Monday.

The other Grade 2 contest on Navan’s card was the Ten Up Novices’ Chase, which has been an informative race in previous years. This year’s renewal was unsatisfactory, however, as the winner Acapella Bourgeois (154 from 139) was allowed to build up a substantial lead in front and was never headed. Though the 32-length winning margin was heavily exaggerated given how favourably the race went for him, he has earned a crack at a Grade 1 (holds an entry for the RSA).

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3rd Mr J. Dunne silk 12. BONNIE LOCH (IRE) 40/141
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FULL RESULT

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1st James Bowen silk 5. SHANE'S SPIRIT (IRE) 4/51.8f
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J: James Bowen  
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