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Ratings Update: Christmas special

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Andrew Asquith highlights the major changes to the Timeform ratings following the busy Christmas period.

The main action in Britain on Boxing Day came from Kempton, which featured an intriguing renewal of the King George VI, but the action kicked off with a valuable non-graded novice event that attracted some potentially smart types.

If The Cap Fits (149p from 135P) had no trouble completing the hat-trick over hurdles, progressing again as he beat Diese des Bieffes (139p from 129P) by five lengths, and he is ready for a higher grade now, with the Supreme a likely target in the spring. He’s an exciting prospect, smart already and with more to offer. The first four home were all had positive profiles coming into the race, and there’s no reason for being that negative about them after either, despite the race taking shape only after three out and the winner proving much superior to his rivals.

The Kauto Star Novices’ Chase looked an open renewal, but the race itself rather fell apart, jumping the key, with the winner Black Corton (remains on 149) much the most solid in that regard, almost certain to have been only second had Fountains Windfall (149 from 143p) stood up. Fountains Windfall was three lengths to the good and full of running when departing four out, and he is well up to winning at graded level provided he cuts out the mistakes. Black Corton, on the other hand, continues to be a tremendous advert for his trainer and rider, placed to maximum advantage and not needing to improve to add a Grade 1 to his novice tally. Still, it’s hard to see him being quite good enough for the RSA in the spring.

The lack of quality opposition in the Christmas Hurdle meant Buveur d’Air (remains on 170) faced another straightforward task and he completed it with the minimum of fuss, not needing to run anywhere near his best. He typically jumped fluently and tanked along before quickening clear on the run-in, and he will continue to prove hard to beat until the Champion Hurdle, where there is surely only Faugheen standing in his way, who runs in the Grade 1 hurdle at Leopardstown on Friday.

The King George was the much-anticipated feature, but it didn’t fully deliver, in part due to the superiority of the winner Might Bite (down 2 lb to 172). The pace wasn't so strong as might have been anticipated, slower indeed for a long way than in the Kauto Star earlier on the card. This was Might Bite’s biggest success to date however and, despite not producing the electric performances of his novice career, he never really looking in danger of defeat. He holds leading claims for the Cheltenham Gold Cup, Sizing John the obvious obstacle in his path. The disappointment of the race was Bristol de Mai (170 from 173+), who just wasn’t in the same form away from the mud (unable to match his Wetherby form, never mind what he achieved at Haydock), discomforted by the attentions of the winner, not jumping so well as a result and left for dead after four out. He might as well go for the Cotswold Chase, as conditions ought to be in his favour, and it's hard to see him winning at Cheltenham or Aintree in the spring on anything other than very soft ground. Thistlecrack (down 7 lb to 166) took a step forward from his reappearance back over fences, but may never be the horse he was, the main threat to the winner early in the straight before his effort petered out; he may be able to build further on this, though.

There were a few graded races in Ireland on Boxing Day too, but the standout performance came from Footpad (up 7 lb to 160p) in the Racing Post Novices’ Chase. He maintained his perfect start to his chasing career in scintillating style, jumping with aplomb and sauntering clear of some highly promising rivals from two out, fully justifying his position at the head of the ante-post betting for the Arkle; he’s a top class two-mile chaser in the making. Death Duty (154 from 154p) lost his unbeaten record over fences, looking unsuited by the drop back to two miles, beaten when falling at the last. He will benefit from a return to two and a half miles and may yet do better with that in mind.

Earlier on the Leopardstown card Espoir d’Allen (135p from 135P) made it four wins from four over hurdles in the Grade 2 Knight Frank Juvenile Hurdle. The race lacked strength in depth and didn’t tell us anything we didn’t know about the winner, who is very much the standout performer in the juvenile division in Ireland, though his Triumph credentials are likely to be given a much sterner examination in the Grade One Spring Juvenile Hurdle back here in February.

Significant overnight rainfall made for much more gruelling conditions than on the first day of the meeting at Kempton on Wednesday. Since Riverside Theatre was successful in 2009, the Wayward Lad Novices' Chase has had a run of celebrated winners, either already successful at Grade 1 level or set to be so subsequently, with Sprinter Sacre, Altior, Simonsig and Dodging Bullets among them. Whether Cyrname (147p from 139+) reaches a similar level remains to be seen, but he is evidently going to be a better chaser than hurdler and is just the type his trainer excels with. The return to a right-handed track clearly suited and a step up in trip will likely draw out further improvement.

The Desert Orchid Chase was a potentially even more of a match than the market suggested, but a rare jumping lapse by Special Tiara (remains on 166) left a simple task for Politologue (remains on 165). Politologue didn’t win prettily, but the race perhaps came soon enough after the Tingle Creek (runner-up ran poorly the day before) and he's better judged on that when his chance is considered for bigger targets ahead. He will reportedly have a short break now and head to the Game Spirit before having a crack at the Champion Chase.

The Grade 1 chase at Leopardstown on Wednesday saw Min (166 from 170p) lose the race in the stewards’ room to Simply Ned (159? From 152) after being found guilty of causing interference in the final furlong. Min is better than he was able to show, though he will need to leave this form well behind if he is to trouble an on-song Altior at Cheltenham in March. Simply Ned is likely to find life significantly tougher from now on under a Grade 1 penalty, with connections reportedly considering a return to Leopardstown for the Grade 2 Dublin Chase in February.

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