Ratings Update: Cheltenham and Doncaster

If it was a rallying cry, when Donald McCain spoke in November of getting ‘slightly frustrated’ with his fellow northern trainers, then it has worked. The words, meant as inspiration and not castigation, were in some way a warning against geographic identity, of traditions and assumptions that make ‘the North’ a state of mind as much as a place. Since then, McCain has walked the walk like he talked the talk, as seen in his strike-rate, and an air of ambition has swept through the region, to enlightening ends. 

Nicky Richards has won a premier handicap at Cheltenham (Guitar Pete) and a Grade 1 in Ireland (Simply Ned), Malcolm Jefferson unwrapped another luxury layer off the high-flying Waiting Patiently at Sandown, and Jedd O’Keeffe has masterminded Sam Spinner’s rise to power amongst the staying hurdlers. And now the North has bona fide Gold Cup graduate, courtesy of Brian Ellison and Definitly Red. His latest in a long series of legs up the ratings ladder puts him on 166+, which sees him elbowing for room in the congested Gold Cup pack that’s pushing the divisional leaders Might Bite and Sizing John, who are both rated 172.

Bristol bombs once again

The Cotswold Chase also shed some retrospective light on the hardest-to-fathom rating of the season, namely Bristol de Mai’s demolition job in the gruelling Betfair Chase. The ridiculously wide margin at Haydock (of 57 lengths) made for a ridiculously wide margin for interpretation, and for error, but conservatism is king when dealing in such extremes, and a lowish line taken by Timeform at the time has been reduced further by his unsupportive shows at both Kempton and Cheltenham, meaning Bristol de Mai is now assessed at 166, though even that’s conditional, which is a dirty word in handicapping terms, but it’s almost a unique case.

Definitly Red’s own 166 could be viewed as conditional, in that he clearly relishes the mud, but it might be circumstance rather than choice that he’s spent most of his racing life on testing ground, and it was good to firm when he was beaten less than 8 lengths into seventh (of 22) in the 2014 Champion Bumper. The upcoming Irish Gold Cup is a final swing of the bat for several, some dark ones still amongst them, ahead of the championship event, but Definitly Red now has the sort of hefty rating that’s on a par for third or fourth at least based on recent Gold Cup standards.

Brian Ellison reflects on the success of Definitly Red in the BetBright Trial Cotswold Chase and says the nine-year-old is "probably the best horse I've ever trained." The Timico Gold Cup at #TheFestival is now the aim. pic.twitter.com/yWTkQmIZDp

— CheltenhamRacecourse (@CheltenhamRaces) January 27, 2018

That also puts into some perspective the punchy performance by Frodon in running away with the Grade 3 handicap at Cheltenham off a mark of 154, by 17 lengths, as Timeform calculates that constitutes a rating of 165, just 1 lb behind Definitly Red. It might have been the perfect storm for Frodon, in a strongly-run race that rather fell apart around him, with Bryony Frost’s 5-lb claim all the more of a help in a lopsided handicap, in which only three of the field of fourteen carried above 11-0, but equally it hardly came out of the blue.

On that point, Top Notch (169) beat Double Shuffle and Frodon by 8 lengths and 2¼ lengths – or 12 lb and 10 lb at the weights to put it in handicapping terms – in the 1965 Chase at Ascot in November, and given what the runner-up did subsequently in the King George, and what Frodon did on Saturday, the 6/1 about Top Notch for the Ryanair will surely come under pressure between now and the Festival, whatever the target of Un de Sceaux.  

Sam still the one to beat

Frodon’s 165 is equal to Whisper’s second in the Ladbrokes Trophy for handicap performance of the season so far by a chaser. Whisper was classy enough over timber to contest two Stayers’ Hurdles for Nicky Henderson (or World Hurdles as they were then), and Nicky Henderson has plotted an unorthodox path to the same race for L’Ami Serge, via the Sky Bet Chase at Doncaster, where he went off as short as 13/8 and might have prevailed in a bunched finish had he got going sooner, amid the flaws and foibles which always make him a handful. Finishing third to Wakanda (unchanged on 148) didn’t diminish L’Ami Serge’s Stayers’ Hurdle prospects, but the problem for him is that he’s already been taught one lesson by Sam Spinner, in the Long Walk, and it’s hard to see how he can reverse that form.

Sam Spinner is sitting prettier still after the Cleeve, as its winner, Agrapart, isn’t even entered for the Stayers’ Hurdle, in the presumed belief that he wouldn’t get the heavy ground that makes a difference to him. Even Agrapart’s improvement in winning (up to 160) still leaves him shy of both L’Ami Serge (161) and Sam Spinner (164) in the Timeform rankings for the long-distance hurdlers. What’s more, the stayers’ semi-final in Ireland last week, the Galmoy at Gowran, was smuggled by a horse with a different agenda entirely, Presenting Percy running to 150 in doing what was required for a warm-up to the RSA over fences, for which he’s clear in the market but less so on the ratings (155p, 1 lb and 4 lb ahead of Death Duty and Fountains Windfall respectively), but from just three attempts.

Classic winner impresses on the clock

An RSA horse for next year was how Nicky Henderson described Santini (146p), who’s now two from two under Rules after seeing off Black Op (up 10 lb to 145p) – the pair some 29 lengths clear of the rest – in the Grade 2 Classic Novices’ Hurdle at Cheltenham, which generated the best timefigure of the week, suggesting both are full value for their slot in the top ten of novice hurdlers in the Timeform rankings, but there are some big boys about to flex their muscles at the Dublin Festival next weekend, not least Samcro.

The form wasn’t of so high a standard between the pair who drew away from the rest in the Grade 2 River Don Novices’ Hurdle at Doncaster, over three miles, but both Enniscoffey Oscar (136) and Shannon Bridge (137, 1 lb ahead on the weight-for-age scale) still have a ‘p’ in anticipation of more progress, an exciting eye already on chasing with the pair of them.

Royal rumble with Footpad awaits

The better a horse is over hurdles, the harder it can be to transfer all of that power to chasing, but Sceau Royal has accomplished it and then some. His rating from the Henry VIII at Sandown (157p, versus 151 as a hurdler) was more than enough for him to add the Grade 2 Lightning Novices’ Chase at Doncaster on Saturday, but the boldly-ridden Shantou Rock (up 3 lb to 146) asked some serious questions to which Sceau Royal came up with all the answers, completing his preparation for the Arkle, for which team-mate Footpad (in the same ownership) stands in his way. Going by impressions, as well as times, we’ve only irritated the skin let alone scratched the surface of Footpad the chaser, and the 3 lb between him and Sceau Royal on current standings could easily become an insurmountable gap if Footpad really turns it on in the Irish Arkle at Leopardstown on Saturday.

Footpad, for one, represents the next-generation stars for Willie Mullins, timely so, with doubts around his established heavy-hitters like Douvan and Faugheen, and there was another, less heralded statement of stardom signed at the weekend by Laurina.

Both runnings of the Dawn Run Mares’ Novices Hurdle at the Festival have been won by Willie Mullins’ favourites. Last year it was Let’s Dance, who’d been on the go for a good while, but the 2016 winner, Limini, has great relevance for Laurina, as Limini’s route to Cheltenham was via the Grade 3 Solerina at Fairyhouse, which copy-cat Laurina won this year with the same rating (more or less), by the same margin, in the same effortless way.

Laurina runs out a ready winner of the Grade 3 Solerina Mares Novice Hurdle at @Fairyhouse: pic.twitter.com/oLs7M4FJu4

— At The Races (@AtTheRaces) January 27, 2018

Laurina’s calculated Timeform rating of 141P is like specialist steel for cracking nuts, which will be needed with such a tough nut to contend with like Maria’s Benefit (140), who underlined all of power-packed progress this season by fending off Irish Roe (up 4 lb to 137) in a supercharged climax to the Grade 2 Yorkshire Rose Mares’ Hurdle at Doncaster.

The spirit of the free-wheeling Maria’s Benefit versus the style of the swift-moving Laurina may just be the Anglo-Irish clash of the whole of Cheltenham, though the Triumph is shaping up to be a hot one, with five undefeated juveniles at the top of the ratings table. Apple’s Shakira (139p) made it three from three at Cheltenham in the Finesse, which is marginally behind what Peace And Co and Defi du Seuil in the same race en route to Triumph success, but the mares allowance needs factoring in, plus she’s faced only soft or heavy ground and small fields, and some of the different variables in play in March could well unlock another classy component within her.