Welsh Grand National preview: Thorough stayer can go back-to-back

The Welsh Grand National is run over a marathon trip at Chepstow and typically develops into one of the most gruelling races in the National Hunt calendar, especially when the ground is testing.

That isn’t to say that class cannot come to the fore – subsequent Gold Cup winners Synchronised and Native River have both won this contest in recent years – but it will certainly demand a bigger effort from the most talented horse in this year’s line-up, Elegant Escape, who will have to defy top weight if he is going to become the first horse to win back-to-back renewals of the race since Bonanza Boy three decades ago.

Elegant Escape wins the Coral Welsh Grand National at @Chepstow_Racing! pic.twitter.com/e6bIHsDrzH

— At The Races (@AtTheRaces) December 27, 2018

Elegant Escape finished second in the Ladbrokes Trophy before landing the spoils here 12 months ago, relishing the extra emphasis on stamina as he stayed on dourly to prevail by a length and a quarter from Ramses de Teillee. He came up short when tried at the top level later that season but bounced back with a career best last time to hit the frame in the Ladbrokes Trophy for the second year in a row, typically doing best his work at the finish to snatch third.

Colin Tizzard’s charge is 9 lb higher here than when successful 12 months ago and no horse this century has been able to defy a BHA mark of 160, but Halcon Genelardais (164 in 2008) and Tidal Bay (163 in 2013) have both been placed from higher marks, while Elegant Escape appeals as one who is especially well suited by the demands of this race. Indeed, he is likely to relish going back up in trip here and looks sure to give another good account.

De Rasher Counter (12/1) wins a thrilling renewal of the @Ladbrokes Trophy Chase, for Emma Lavelle and Ben Jones at @NewburyRacing! 🏆

(🎥@itvracing)pic.twitter.com/pDGwAlsVoU

— Timeform Live (@TimeformLive) November 30, 2019

Tizzard is also set to be represented by West Approach, who ended a long losing run in authoritative fashion at Cheltenham’s November meeting, forging clear after being produced at the last to beat Achille by three lengths. He unseated his rider in the Ladbrokes Trophy, though, and was again let down by some ponderous early leaps when third back at Cheltenham last time, which reinforces the view that his jumping may not come up to scratch now faced with a test such as this.

Paul Nicholls could also field multiple runners as he attempts to add to his two wins in the race earlier this century, with Truckers Lodge and Yala Enki both appearing to hold strong claims. The former jumped soundly on his way to a first win over fences at this venue in October and looks likely to be suited by going up in trip here, while Yala Enki is only 1 lb higher than when finishing third in this race for Venetia Williams 12 months ago. He shaped as if needing the run when well held on his return/stable debut in the Ladbrokes Trophy and this race is reported to have been his target ever since arriving at Ditcheat.

Formerly based with Nicholls during his riding career, Christian Williams was twice placed in this race as a jockey, including when beaten just a head on Halcon Genelardais in 2007, and he will be hoping to strike at the first attempt as a trainer courtesy of Potters Corner. A thorough stayer who showed a determined attitude to win over hurdles here last time, he is likely to be still going when others have cried enough but doesn’t look to have an obvious chance at the weights (10 lb higher than when winning last season’s Midlands National at Uttoxeter).

Also prominent in the betting is the Stuart Edmunds-trained Now McGinty, who won at this venue during a productive novice campaign in 2018/19 and proved better than ever when pushing Santini all the way on his reappearance at Sandown last month. The willing attitude he showed on that occasion should continue to stand him in good stead, and, with the longer trip here expected to suit, he looks a leading player.

SANTINI wins on his return, but only just!

Now Mcginty refuses to go away and makes @sevenbarrows' charge pull out all the stops under @NdeBoinville to land the (listed) Future Stars Intermediate Chase at @Sandownpark!

📽️ @RacingTV pic.twitter.com/ejnyibRZIn

— Timeform Live (@TimeformLive) November 10, 2019

Others to note from last season’s novice crop include The Two Amigos, who has looked a thorough stayer in winning three of his six starts over fences, and Steely Addition, who is much better than he showed when last of four in the Sandown heat won by Santini. Indeed, he looked useful in four starts over fences last term, including a comfortable win at this track (also won here over hurdles), and it would be no surprise to see him get back on the up for the Philip Hobbs yard that won this race with Dream Alliance back in 2009.

Finally, Bennys King and Prime Venture are also worth a mention among those who are lower in the weights. The latter remains a maiden after eight starts over fences but features on a good mark judged on the pick of his form (2 lb lower than when second at this venue last season), while Bennys King is 7 lb well-in here under a penalty, having resumed his progress with a ready win at Newbury last time. He has stamina to prove over this markedly longer trip but remains open to further progress after only five starts in this sphere.

The winners keep on coming for @DSkeltonRacing, as BENNYS KING (10/1) stays on powerfully to take the Sir Peter O'Sullevan Memorial Handicap Chase at Newbury, with @harryskelton89 on board!🏇👑

(🎥@NewburyRacing)pic.twitter.com/ZHeAPZWwr2

— Timeform Live (@TimeformLive) November 30, 2019

To sum up, this looks a typically competitive renewal, but last year's victor Elegant Escape could be worth chancing to follow up. He proved at least as good as ever when third from this mark in the Ladbrokes Trophy, making eye-catching late headway, and the extra distance here could give him the boost he needs to defy his lofty rating for a historic success. Now McGinty and Steely Addition are others to consider.

Recommendation:

Back Elegant Escape at 4/1 in Friday's Welsh Grand National at Chepstow