Vertem Futurity Trophy Preview: It's all Greek to me

Doncaster’s Vertem Futurity Trophy, known in recent years as the Racing Post Tophy, has new sponsors this time around, but retains its reputation as one of the main barometers for next year’s classic generation – with last year’s winner Saxon Warrior going on to win the 2000 Guineas at Newmarket.

As with most Group 1 races in Britain and Ireland in recent times, Aidan O’Brien was the man responsible for training him, and he has a strong hand this year, too, with no less than eight potential runners amongst the five-day entries, though several of those also have entries elsewhere.

Ballydoyle have a very strong hand in terms of form, four of the top five on Timeform ratings belong to them, and it is Magna Grecia who sets the standard after just two starts to date, with the fact that he has been supplemented for this suggesting that he will be the yard’s first string. An emphatic winner on debut at Naas at the end of last month, Magna Grecia was quickly turned back out, and finished second in the Group 3 Autumn Stakes at Newmarket two weeks later. He relinquished his unbeaten record that day, but there was a lot to like about that performance, finding only the well-backed French raider Persian King too strong in a tight finish, and with there likely to be a lot more to come from him, he will be a difficult nut to crack.

Persian King wins the Masar Godolphin Autumn Stakes @NewmarketRace pic.twitter.com/x5bBIxgEcU

— ITV Racing (@itvracing) October 13, 2018

The majority have multiple entries

O’Brien boasts several smart two-year-old prospects this year, though, including Japan, who only made his debut at the beginning of last month, but already has three runs under his belt, and arrives here having won the Group 2 Beresford Stakes at Naas last time, staying on to lead in the dying strides. He’s bred in the purple (brother to very smart Sir Isaac Newton), and merits plenty of respect considering how far he has come in such a short space of time, and it is also worth noting that Saxon Warrior also won the Beresford last year. Norway, who has had four starts so far, would be another interesting runner, having his form up a notch since breaking his maiden at the third attempt at the beginning of the month at Naas, taking the listed Zetland Stakes at Newmarket on his next start. He looks a top middle distance prospect for next year, but his most recent win came over ten furlongs, and he, like Japan could both head to the Group 1 Criterium de Saint-Cloud instead. Broome is more likely to take his chance here, and is one of the more experienced runners in the field, with five starts so far, and he has proven top level form under his belt, too, having finished second in the Prix Jean-Luc Lagardère at Longchamp last time out. He rallied well when headed inside the final furlong that day, though was perhaps flattered a bit by the winning margin, and Magna Grecia looks the stronger prospect.

The remaining four of the O’Brien contingent, Sydney Opera House, Circus Maximus, Cape of Good Hope and Western Australia all have multiple entries – all four are also entered both at Saint-Cloud and in the Group 3 Eyrefield Stakes at Leopardstown – so it is difficult to calculate which, if any, will take their chance at Doncaster. Circus Maximus is perhaps the most interesting of the four, finishing three lengths third behind Magna Grecia in the Autumn Stakes last time and he is open to improvement, but all four have something to find if they are to have serious claims.

Best of the rest

Away from the O’Brien yard, the biggest threat to Magna Grecia could come from Phoenix of Spain, who has some strong course form under his belt, having finished second to Too Darn Hot in the Group 2 Champagne Stakes last month. Whilst he found the winner far too good, his performance would have been good enough to win that race in two of the last four renewals, and he is likely to make another bold bid, with the step up to a mile certain to suit.

It is slightly surprising that John Gosden, the newly crowned Champion Trainer, has yet to win this race, though he has an interesting contender this time around with Turgenev, who has made three starts to date. He got off the mark at the second attempt in eye-catching fashion at Newcastle in September, and followed that up in a minor event at Newmarket last time out. He had plenty in hand that day, but this represents a big step up in class and more would be needed if he is to take this. Kadar is another taking a big jump into this company, having won on debut at Haydock last month. He looked a useful prospect when showing a good attitude to overcome Waldstern, and whilst he is open to further improvement, that form has since taken a knock, with that rival subsequently struggling in the Zetland Stakes.

Andrea Atzeni has ridden the winner of four of the past five winners of this, and he is due to partner Raakib Alhawa this time around. He overcame greenness to make a winning debut at Newbury last month, the first to do so in that race since 2008, and whilst he is a nice prospect, more is needed having only shown useful form on his debut. The same can be said for Kick On, who got off the mark at the second attempt in a maiden in impressive fashion at Newmarket last time, and he looks worthy of a crack in pattern company. Great Scot arrives here having won a listed race on heavy ground at Haydock last month, and whilst he would be of interest should sustained rainfall arrive over the coming days, this race looks far deeper.

Conclusion

Whilst 19 runners stand their ground at this stage, it is highly likely that several of the Ballydoyle contingent will head elsewhere, and it is Magna Grecia who is their strongest chance, having finished a fine second in the Autumn Stakes at Newmarket last time. As a result of this, it is unlikely that he will be available at the 5/2 currently on offer later in the week, and with more improvement to come, he gets the vote to win this once again for Aidan O’Brien. The biggest challenge could come from Phoenix of Spain and Turgenev, with the latter perhaps having more scope for improvement.

Recommendation

Back Magna Grecia to win Saturday's Vertem Futurity Trophy at 5/2