Vertem Futurity Trophy Preview: Is Kinross the real deal?

The rearranged Vertem Futurity Trophy – now set to take place at Newcastle on Friday evening – will become the first Group 1 run on an artificial surface in Britain, but hopefully it won’t be the last as it looks a much better contest than the one that was due to take place at Doncaster last weekend.

Newcastle’s straight track is one of the fairest in the country, and has been used to good effect since opening in 2016, with the likes of Enable, Stradivarius and Without Parole all breaking their maiden at the course. The one horse who jumps off the page for Friday’s contest is Kinross, who was an intended runner in the Group 3 Horris Hill at Newbury on Saturday before that meeting was washed away, but he is well worth a crack at the highest level based on his stunning debut success at Newmarket earlier this month.

How impressed were you by the debut of Kingman colt Kinross at @NewmarketRace yesterday? pic.twitter.com/IgUexWXf5v

— Racing TV (@RacingTV) October 6, 2019

Kinross recorded the highest Timeform performance rating of any two-year-old debutant this season when winning at Newmarket (106P). He is clearly held in high regard, given how strong he was in the market on debut, and he never gave his backers an ounce of worry, looking something out of the ordinary as he tanked along before showing a smart turn of foot to stretch away and score by eight lengths. That performance was backed up by a smart timefigure (105), adding substance to the visual impression, and he is clearly an exciting prospect, sure to be suited by a mile on pedigree, too.

Aidan O’Brien is responsible for five of the 12-strong field, with Mogul – a full brother to International Stakes winner Japan – seemingly his leading hope. He was beaten five and a half lengths in second by Geometrical on debut, but, as expected, has shown much-improved form to win his last two starts. He was very strong in the betting when winning the Champions Juvenile Stakes at Leopardstown last time and, while he was more workmanlike than impressive, he left the impression he had much more in the locker. He has just about the best form on offer.

Aidan O'Brien's previous Vertem Futurity Trophy winners and Timeform Ratings

His stablemate Innisfree boasts a similar profile. He was also beaten on debut but has been progressing at a rate of knots since, improving a chunk to win the Beresford Stakes on heavy ground at the Curragh last time. That win provided O’Brien with a record nineteenth success in the race (one he regularly targets with his classic hopes), and Innisfree showed he has fight to go with his class as he eventually got on top near the line. The betting suggests Mogul is the one to be with from O’Brien’s quintet, but it would be folly to ignore Innisfree’s claims as there’s not much between them on form, and they are both open to further improvement.

Won by the likes of St Nicholas Abbey, Capri, Saxon Warrior & Japan, Innisfree provides Aidan O'Brien with a 19th victory in the G2 Beresford Stakes @curraghrace pic.twitter.com/R4Isp5K9Mv

— Racing TV (@RacingTV) September 29, 2019

John Gosden has been a big supporter of the all-weather track at Newcastle and Verboten looks the pick of his two runners. Verboten, whose sales price more than quadrupled to €350,000 from foal to a yearling, overcame inexperience to make a winning debut at Yarmouth in July, where he missed the break and was checked slightly over two furlongs out but ran on nicely to lead close home. That was a promising start, and he commands respect for a yard not afraid to throw one in at the deep end.

The Andrew Balding-trained Kameko hit the headlines last week as the only horse not trained by O’Brien among the original confirmations for this race. He faces a stiffer task now in a much deeper field, but merits his place in this line-up for all that this will require a career best to come out on top. The same can be said for Tammani, who looked better than ever when winning a heavy-ground listed event at Deauville last week.

In summary, this looks a cracking end-of-season Group 1, the presence of Kinross giving the race a whole new complexion. The level he ran to on debut marks him down as a top-level performer, and it wouldn’t be a surprise were he vying for favouritism come race time on Friday evening, so the suggestion is to get him on side now. However, it would also be dangerous to overlook Innisfree, whose price also has the scope to shorten.  

Recommendation:

Back Kinross at 9/4 in the Vertem Futurity Trophy at Newcastle on Friday