US Weekend Preview: Nemoralia tries to topple Tepin

With just four weeks to go until the Breeders’ Cup, Saturday sees a raft of Grade 1 contests in the States as trainers try to get the final prep runs into their charges before the big meeting. Keeneland hosts a stellar card on Saturday, with UK-trained challengers in two of the main races.

David O’Meara’s Mondialiste is no stranger to North America, and he makes his fourth start on the other side of the Atlantic in the Shadwell Turf Mile (22:45 BST). With a record of two wins from three prior starts in the US, Mondialiste clearly relishes the conditions and style of racing over there. His wins came in last year’s Woodbine Mile and this year’s Arlington Million, while in between he was far from disgraced when second to high-class mare Tepin in the Breeders’ Cup Mile over this C&D. Better than ever at the age of six, Mondialiste is strictly the one to beat, but represents little value at his current price of around 13/8.

Miss Temple City is another familiar name, having competed for the last two years at Royal Ascot. A winner at Grade 1 level over this C&D in April, she was then far from disgraced when fourth under a penalty to Usherette in the Duke Of Cambridge Stakes at the Royal meeting. Below form in two starts since returning home, Miss Temple City is a big contender if trainer Graham Motion can coax her back to her best.

Ironicus hasn’t been seen since finishing second over further in the Manhattan Stakes at Belmont in June. His conqueror that day, Flintshire, is high-class and it was no disgrace to be beaten there. While clearly good enough to win a race of this nature, the suspicion is that Ironicus may prove best over slightly further than this mile.

Tourist had been knocking on the door at the top level before finally breaking through to take the Fourstardave Handicap at Saratoga last time. With a forward-going style, the fact that Tourist is drawn towards the outside may not be too much of a disadvantage, although it is still a far from ideal situation for a horse likely to be towards the front of the market.

In summary, this is a tricky race to weigh up, with little separating the main contenders on ratings. It could be worth taking a chance that Miss Temple City returns to the form she showed in the spring and early summer, and if that is the case, a price of around 7/1 looks pretty fair.

There is little more to add to the story of Tepin, who has proved a revelation on the turf over the last eighteen months or so in the States. Following on from her Royal Ascot win in the Queen Anne, Mark Casse’s mare took the Woodbine Mile with a minimum of fuss last time, and she takes in the same prep race as last year on the road to her Breeders’ Cup Mile defence, the First Lady Stakes (21:35 BST).

An intriguing sub-plot to this race, however, sees Jeremy Noseda willing to take a shot at Tepin with Nemoralia. Well below form at Doncaster last time, that effort is best forgiven as Nemoralia was clearly not herself that day, and she can be expected to put up a much bolder showing.

While not wanting to put off anyone wishing to take an each-way stab in the race with Nemoralia, she needs to improve to match the form shown by Celestine in her last race. That came in the Just a Game Stakes at Belmont, and was a most impressive performance by Bill Mott’s daughter of Scat Daddy, the form of which has been franked several times. While Tepin is going to prove a mighty tough nut to crack, there is the distinct possibility that Celestine could well give her a race, and maybe even cause an upset, if the current Breeders’ Cup champ is not at her very best.

Recommendations:

Back Miss Temple City in the Shadwell Turf Mile

Back Celestine (each-way) in the First Lady Stakes