US Preview: Gronk can score at Saratoga

H. Allen Jerkens Stakes, 7f Dirt (19:23 BST)

The first of six Grade 1 races on a packed Saratoga card, and there should be Breeders’ Cup clues aplenty as we are now just over two months away from North America’s biggest meeting of the year. This race features an intriguing clash between Promises Fulfilled and Firenze Fire, both of whom have thrived since being dropped back down in trip. Although Firenze Fire must cope with a further drop from a mile to seven furlongs, such was the impression he created when winning the G3 Dwyer Stakes by nine lengths last time, he is taken to come out on top.

Selection: Firenze Fire

Personal Ensign Stakes, 9f Dirt (19:59 BST)

With Unique Bella recently retired, the title of best older female on the dirt is very much up for grabs, and both Abel Tasman and Elate stake their claim for it here. There is little between the pair on Timeform ratings, and there should be little between them on the track, too, though narrow preference is for Elate. Bill Mott’s filly does have a bit of ground to make up on Abel Tasman based on last year’s Breeders’ Cup Distaff meeting, but she may not have taken to Del Mar there, and simply looks a much better filly on the east coast. However, Abel Tasman will be a tough nut to crack, is tactically versatile, and trained by an absolute master in Bob Baffert. This is very much a race to savour.

Selection: Elate

Ketel One Ballerina Stakes, 7f Dirt (20:35 BST)

An extremely competitive field heads to post for the Ballerina, with six of them rated within 4 lb of each other on weight-adjusted Timeform ratings. Chad Brown is having a stellar year, and he can take this with Lewis Bay, a filly who is very consistent, and was a most impressive winner last time. This will be far from easy, though, and stakes are best kept to a minimum, with the likes of Marley’s Freedom and Finley’sluckycharm possessing comparable form to the selection.

Selection: Lewis Bay

Forego Stakes, 7f Dirt (21:12 BST)

The Forego is a major trial for the Breeders’ Cup Sprint, but this year’s renewal doesn’t have a great amount of depth to it, and it’s hard to look past the chances of City of Light and Limousine Liberal. The latter has a tricky post to overcome on the inside, and will probably need a bit of luck, while City of Light has a contrasting outside draw. Preference is for the latter, who has enough speed to get a handy pitch, and is a very smart performer at this trip and further. Whitmore is another who should give a good account, but he does tend to come up a little short at the top level more often than not.

Selection: City of Light

Sword Dancer Stakes, 12f Turf (21:49 BST)

The only Grade 1 turf race of the evening is another competitive affair, with a place in the Breeders’ Cup Turf itself up for grabs. A number of these have met several times already this year and they are a tough bunch to get a handle on. Morning Line favourite Sadler’s Joy usually gives his running, but he has little in hand, particularly from the widest post. Although they haven’t been in particularly great form of late, Aidan O’Brien’s team will hit their starps at some point, and it may be worth siding with Seahenge at what is a big price. Campaigned exclusively on dirt and the all-weather this year, maybe getting back on turf will be just the ticket for Seahenge to finally recapture his best form. He gets in with a low weight here (hence Wayne Lordan taking the mount) and is worth a small each-way investment.

Selection: Seahenge (each-way)

Travers Stakes, 10f Dirt (22:44 BST)

An intriguing renewal of the Travers Stakes, in which Good Magic and Gronkowski form a strong team for Chad Brown, while Mendelssohn bids to bounce back after his reputation has taken a bit of a knock on his last two starts. Throw in the likes of Catholic Boy, who has established himself as a smart performer on turf, and now bids to prove he can be just as effective back on dirt, and we have the makings of a tremendous contest. There’s also the intriguing prospect of Kentucky Oaks runner-up Wonder Gadot taking on the boys for the first time.

From a betting point of view, this is an extremely difficult race to decipher, but narrow preference is for Gronkowski, who ran a great race when second to Justify in the Belmont Stakes, and may even have gone close to beating the Triple Crown winner with a better break. Chad Brown’s charge did duffer a small setback after that race, but is said to be working better than ever since, and took to dirt with great aplomb at the first time of asking. His stable companion Good Magic will be a tough nut to crack, but he may not have things all his own way if adopting his usual prominent pitch, and this could set up well for Gronkowski, who hopefully gets away from the gate a little sharper this time.

Selection: Gronkowski