Too Darn Hot: A Derby contender?

Yesterday’s Jumps season finale at Sandown means that focus can now well and truly switch to the Flat turf season, and the first of the five British Classic races – Saturday’s 2000 Guineas at Newmarket.

While Sandown’s feature, the Grade 1 Celebration Chase, is a stark contrast to the following week’s main event, they share a distinct similarity this year, in that both races are missing a key figure in the context of the season as a whole.

Both races are of course at opposite ends of their respective seasons, but Cyrname was unable to lock horns with the undisputed king of the two-mile division Altior due to the ground, while last year’s champion two-year-old, Too Darn Hot, will miss the Guineas after an injury set-back.

It’s a hammer-blow for connections, none more so than John Gosden, who has yet to win the race himself, and it will be interesting to see if they now turn their attentions to the Epsom Derby, for which Too Darn Hot is the 5/1 favourite at the time of writing.

It also adds an interesting conundrum for both Gosden, and Too Darn Hot’s owners, Lord and Lady Lloyd-Webber, to solve for the remainder of the season, as, robbed of a run in one of the most significant Derby trials on offer, they are left with trying to work out their plan for the colt, who has provided evidence both for and against his credentials for the Epsom Classic.

The Guineas is all the poorer for his absence

The Guineas often dictates how the main protagonists of the Classic generation are campaigned for the remainder of the season, so it is a considerable blow that Too Darn Hot is unable to take his chance.

Of course, there’s no guarantee that exceptional two-year-old form will translate into the Classic season, something shown as recently as 2016 with Air Force Blue, but it is how Too Darn Hot achieved what he did last term that makes him such an exciting prospect for this season.

Indeed, Too Darn Hot was an above-average winner of the Dewhurst, and produced one of the best performances in the race this century, certainly the best since the great Frankel back in 2010. Too Darn Hot achieved a Timeform rating of 127p which already sits in advance of the standard required to win a typical renewal of the 2000 Guineas.

Too Darn Hot is Too Darn Good for his rivals in the Dewhurst Stakes and provides John Gosden with a first win in this famous Group 1.

Results 👉👉 https://t.co/7iJOPsdIyZ pic.twitter.com/YaYMkCeFRM

— Racing TV (@RacingTV) October 13, 2018

Alongside this, he became just the seventh horse this century to complete his two-year-old season as an unbeaten Dewhurst winner, alongside some illustrious names; Shamardal, Sir Percy, Teofilo, New Approach, Frankel, and New Approach’s son, Dawn Approach. Interestingly, two of those six went on to win the Derby the following season, Sir Percy and New Approach, while Teofilo never ran again having suffered an injury in the run-up to the Guineas.

The “Classic curse” that haunts the Lloyd-Webbers

The news continues a particularly stinging run of bad luck in Classic races for Too Darn Hot’s owners, the Lloyd-Webbers, who are traditionally better known for their exploits with fillies as their Watership Down Stud tends to sell its colts. Indeed, both Lah Ti Dar and So Mi Dar, full sisters to Too Darn Hot, were denied the chance to contest the Oaks, while The Fugue, another filly carried the pink colours at Epsom, was a luckless third in 2012.

It’s a sub-plot which adds extra spice to the debate which surrounds how Too Darn Hot should be campaigned this term, with the prospect of a first classic win in the Epsom Derby perhaps a dangling carrot which is too tempting to ignore.

The age-old question which always crops up at this time of year, “Will he/she stay the trip?” is something which should begin to be answered sooner rather than later, as Too Darn Hot holds entries in both the Dante Stakes at York and the Irish 2000 Guineas – but it’s a question that has even John Gosden scratching his head;

“He has won over a mile already, and a mile and a quarter should not be a problem, but beyond that I do not know.”

What his pedigree tells us

Too Darn Hot’s pedigree is very much open to interpretation in this sense, as he is unquestionably bred for middle-distances, but has very much broken the mould of his pedigree with what he was able to show during his two-year-old season.

As explained in his essay in the latest edition of our Racehorses annual, Too Darn Hot physically very much takes after his sire Dubawi rather than his dam Dar Re Mi, who was a big, strong mare. Middle-distances very much run in the family, though, and Dar Re Mi’s best efforts came at a mile and a half, winning the Yorkshire Oaks at four and the Dubai Sheema Classic at five, while Lah Ti Dar was second in last season’s St Leger. Too Darn Hot’s exploits at two hint that he perhaps won’t quite stay quite as far as those two, and instead seems more likely to take after the Musidora winner So Mi Dar, who was never raced beyond an extended ten furlongs.

Indeed, the precocity that Too Darn Hot showed last season is contrary to his pedigree, with both Dar Re Mi and So Mi Dar managing just the one start at two, while Lah Ti Dar wasn’t seen on the racecourse until her three-year-old season. The only one of Dar Re Mi’s previous foals to have shown above average ability at two was her first foal, De Treville – who was by Oasis Dream.

It was Too Darn Hot’s performance to win the Dewhurst which particularly highlighted doubts about whether he would make up into a Derby horse this season, when showing a huge burst of pace to fly through the final furlong to take up the running and forge clear, something alluded to in the Timeform report on the race:

“…there'd be more doubt as to whether beyond (the Guineas) he'll develop into a Derby horse, admittedly from a family of middle-distance performers but clearly a fast colt, not the biggest either, and he's already breaking the family mould by showing such speed and precocity.”

What the data can tell us

A look at the last ten runnings of the 2000 Guineas shows just how effective a trial for the Derby it is, as four of the last ten Derby winners ran in the Guineas beforehand (Masar, Australia, Camelot and Sea The Stars), with the latter two completing a Classic double.

York’s Dante Stakes is also an important trial, though, and two Derby winners from the last ten years, Golden Horn (first at York) and Workforce (second), contested the Dante before heading to Epsom. Should connections decide to send Too Darn Hot to the Irish 2000 Guineas instead, it would almost certainly rule out a run in the Derby due to the proximity of the two races. Only three horses in the last ten years, Shogun, Carbon Dating and Flying The Flag have run in both – with all three failing to hit the frame at Epsom.

Only four Dewhurst winners in the last ten years have gone to contest the Derby, with the most notable being Dawn Approach, who was sent off a short-priced favourite for the Derby in 2013 after winning the Guineas, but cost himself any chance at Epsom by failing to settle before finishing last of the twelve runners. Doncaster’s Champagne Stakes is a similarly unusual path for a Derby candidate, and only Castlemorris King (150/1 at Epsom) has run in both races in the same timeframe, though a more interesting race on Too Darn Hot’s record is Sandown’s Solario Stakes, which was won by last year’s Derby winner Masar during his two-year-old season.

While we may never find out whether Too Darn Hot is cut out for the tests that Epsom’s Classic poses, we will find out his connections’ ambitions in the coming weeks, and whether that carrot proved too tempting to ignore.