Tolworth Novices' Hurdle preview: Henderson holds the nap hand

This year’s Tolworth has plenty to live up to after the 2018 edition in which the first two, Summerville Boy and Kalashnikov, went on to finish first and second again in a closer finish to the Supreme at Cheltenham. In the meantime, Kalashnikov had gone on to win the Betfair Hurdle.

A re-opened race has yielded fifteen possibles at the five-day stage, with Nicky Henderson having four entries in a race he won four times in five seasons between 2011 and 2015. With the mares’ allowance, Lust For Glory heads the Timeform weight-adjusted ratings, though she also has the option of the listed mares’ hurdle earlier on the card. Lust For Glory made a big impression when beating Posh Trish in a mares’ novices’ hurdle on her jumping debut at Newbury in November and improved on that, even though the runner-up turned the tables on more favourable terms, in a listed contest there the following month. However, the different result was down to tactics as much as anything, and Lust For Glory remains likely to improve.

This would be a bigger test for the other mare among the Henderson entries, Epatante, though she was most impressive when making a winning debut for the yard in a novice at Kempton in November, having won in good bumper company in France the previous autumn. Epatante’s owner J P McManus could be represented by either of the other two Seven Barrows entries, Birchdale and Rathhill. Both former pointers, they too made highly promising starts over hurdles when accounting for large fields in maidens at Warwick and Newbury respectively. Whichever of the quartet is selected to take their chance, he or she is entitled to plenty of respect given Henderson’s Tolworth record.

How's that for a change of gear? 💨

A really impressive British debut from Nicky Henderson and JP McManus' Epatante @kemptonparkrace

Results 👉👉 https://t.co/7iJOPsdIyZ pic.twitter.com/c56lIpEQsR

— Racing TV (@RacingTV) 12 November 2018

Paul Nicholls has also won the race four times, though not since Breedsbreeze was successful in 2008. He too has more than one option, with Grand Sancy looking his main hope. He has a different profile to most of these, being a second-season novice with plenty of experience. A three-time winner this autumn since undergoing a breathing operation, Grand Sancy landed a listed novice at Haydock in November and ran his best race last time when fourth in handicap company under conditional rider Lorcan Williams in the competitive Betfair Exchange Trophy at Ascot just before Christmas. He lacks the same potential as some of these but sets a useful standard. Nicholls’ other entry Southfield Stone is on the up and won with any amount in hand last time, but faces a much sterner test than he has encountered so far at Taunton this season where he has won a bumper and two novice hurdles.

Brewin’upastorm beat Brecon Hill in an above-average novices’ hurdle for Huntingdon in December when in receipt of weight from the runner-up. The Olly Murphy-trained winner improved on that when upped in trip for the Challow Novices’ Hurdle at Newbury last weekend where he was beaten four lengths into fourth behind Champ in a steadily-run contest. That’s some of the best form on offer here, though whether Olly Murphy will be tempted to run him again so soon is open to doubt, while the drop back to two miles might not be ideal for the son of Milan who is a winning pointer.

Colin Tizzard won this with Finian’s Oscar two years ago and could be represented this time by Elixir de Nutz who has done well since joining the yard over the summer and has won his last two at Cheltenham. He has enjoyed soft leads in small fields for both those wins and could be dangerous from the front if this cuts up by the declaration stage.

Bright Forecast is very much in the mix after winning both of his starts over hurdles for Ben Pauling, and he’s another who would face a relatively quick turn-around since his last start at Leicester. He made all that day to justify favouritism, and that followed a very promising debut win in a big field at Newbury where he did remarkably well to overcome considerable inexperience manifested by a couple of late errors.

Bright Forecast makes it 2/2 under Rules in the Aldaniti silks as he scores nicely @LeicesterRaces for @benpauling1

Results ➡ https://t.co/7iJOPsdIyZ pic.twitter.com/ijB7BycCEd

— Racing TV (@RacingTV) 28 December 2018

The other last-time-out winner among the entries is Esprit du Large, trained by Evan Williams, who left his debut in a bumper behind him when running out an impressive eleven-length winner of a maiden hurdle at Uttoxeter in December, showing no shortage of speed.

In a race with plenty of unknown quantities, the other one to mention is the Munir/Souede French import Muratello who ran a subsequently useful sort close on his last start at Auteuil.  We should have found out a bit more about him at Haydock on his debut for Nigel Twiston-Davies last Sunday but it turned into a void contest.

Conclusion

With a number of lightly-raced winners among the entries, this could well come down to who makes the biggest step forward from a lesser contest. Epatante bolted up on her British debut from a rival who has run well since in handicap company and gets the vote among a strong quartet of Henderson possibles, while Bright Forecast seems to be learning quickly and shouldn’t be ruled out.

Recommended bet

Back Epatante to win Saturday's Tolworth Novices' Hurdle at 7/1