Tingle Creek: In rude Health or up the Creek?

Barely a week goes by without a press release revealing details of a new race sponsorship deal for Randox Health. First it was the Grand National, then the County Hurdle, and now the Tingle Creek; brand ambassador Sir Anthony McCoy may be busier than he first thought!

Aside from a new prefix from next season, the Tingle Creek will be hoping to enjoy a continued renaissance as the premier Queen Mother Champion Chase trial. To say that about a Grade 1 may sound a bit glib, however this year’s renewal is worth £84,405 to the winner; the fifth home in this year’s Melbourne Cup won more.

There was a long time between Viking Flagship’s Tingle Creek/Champion Chase double (1994/95) and Flagship Uberalles (2001/02) achieving the same feat. However, since Master Minded (2008/09), three horses have followed suit: Sprinter Sacre (2012/13), Sire de Grugy (2013/14) and Dodging Bullets (2014/15).

The crucial difference this year, after a few years of relative ordinariness, is the return of a superstar: Douvan.

The graph below shows the highest-rated horse going into each of the last 10 renewals, as well as its three nearest rivals. Only one horse had a master rating higher than 180: Sprinter Sacre in 2012.

Arkle winner Douvan is rated 180p, having rounded off a perfect novice chase campaign by landing his fifth Grade 1 of the season, when producing yet another scintillating performance in the Ryanair Novices' Chase at Punchestown when last seen in April.

The Timeform comment: “A sight to behold as he sauntered clear of the very smart runner-up in the straight, notching up a famous Festival hat-trick in the process; soon led, jumped superbly, typically travelled strongly, asserted from 2 out, drew clear run-in, impressive; a truly outstanding prospect, he will continue to take all the beating whichever road connections decide to go down in 2016/17, with the Champion Chase (for which he is already a short-priced favourite) and the Gold Cup both mooted as possible targets at this stage.”

The Gold Cup/Champion Chase conundrum is unlikely to be answered until several months down the line, however Douvan has a chance to promote himself to the world’s outstanding chaser on this first attempt in open company.

Master Minded was rated 179 before both of his Tingle Creek wins, while Kauto Star was rated 183+ before the second of his victories in this race (160p before the first). The only other horse rated higher than 180 in the last 20 years is Moscow Flyer (2004).

And was it worth the hype?

Sprinter Sacre won by 15 lengths, Kauto Star by seven. Doubters may point to the fact that Moscow Flyer won by ‘only’ a length and a half, but he had the disadvantage of the 182-rated Azertyuiop nipping at his heels and contributing greatly to a tremendous race.

There is no Azertyuiop for Douvan to worry about on Saturday. His closest rival at the five-day entry stage on master ratings is stablemate Un de Sceaux – some 8 lb behind on 172 – who was beaten 15 lengths by Sprinter Sacre in the Celebration Chase over this C&D when last seen in Britain (has run twice over hurdles at Auteuil since). Spring specialist God’s Own (167) is next on the ratings, with dual Tingle Creek winner (2013 and 2015) Sire de Grugy back on 165 after a rejuvenating handicap win at Ascot earlier this month.

The graph below shows the pre-race master rating and subsequent performance rating of the last eight horses who have been at least 5 lb clear on master ratings heading into the Tingle Creek.

History, though not always the most reliable of crutches, would suggest that Saturday’s Tingle Creek will likely provide us with a visually impressive winning performance from the clear top-rated horse, though one that cannot be rated too highly due to the (relative) inferiority of the opposition. However, that approach is too robotic, too head over heart: the prospect of Ar Mad and Douvan flying over Sandown’s famous Railway Fences on Saturday is surely enough to get even the most ardent of Flat horse racing devotees excited. And it really could be an ‘I was there’ moment.