Timeform ratings: Explaining trends and disproving myths since 1948

One of the many things Timeform ratings allow us to do is look back at past races, seasons and horses and compare them to their equivalents in the modern day. This not only serves as a useful guide in terms of the normal level required to win a certain race, but also allows us to attempt to prove or disprove various theories within racing, for example that a current group of horses are better/worse than the norm.

This week’s column will use Timeform ratings to attempt to tackle the belief, seemingly held by many, that the older generation of horses still in training (i.e. four-year-olds and upwards) are generally a below-par bunch this season in the UK and Ireland, and that the success of the three-year-olds against them in the very best open-age races is down to this rather than the current generation of three-year-olds being outstanding.

With a glance through the results of this season’s open-age Group 1 races, it is easy to see where the assumption about the older generation comes from. The Eclipse—the first real opportunity for the top middle-distance three-year-olds to take on their elders—was won by Hawkbill from his fellow three-year-old The Gurkha. The likes of the Falmouth, the Nassau and the Sussex were also won by the classic generation, with the latter, won by The Gurkha, seeing all three of the places filled by three-year-olds. However, the older generation have staged a fight-back since, as Highland Reel took the King George and Postponed won the Juddmonte International, with the three-year-old pair of Hawkbill and Derby fourth Wings of Desire both well behind him.

By comparing the Timeform ratings of this season’s set of three-year-olds and older horses in the UK and Ireland with previous years, we should be able to get a more definitive answer to the question. But first, some background.

As Nic’s column last week touched upon, Timeform ratings—the figures themselves—are sub-divided into categories. These ratings bands allow Timeform and its users to clearly distinguish the level of form a horse has produced and gives a rough idea of the class of race a horse should be running in. As a general rule, Group 1 performers are rated 125+, which means they are at least ‘high-class’ but may even be ‘top-class’ (130+) on Timeform ratings. Group 2 performers tend to be ‘very smart’ (120-124), while Group 3 and listed-level performers are most commonly described as ‘smart’ and hold Timeform ratings of 110-119. This standardisation allows for reliable and consistent descriptions of horses and their performances.

Let’s take a look at Frankel’s win in the 2010 Royal Lodge Stakes, for example:

“FRANKEL is on his way to the top, quite rightly now a clear favourite for next year's classics, as this was something very special, not only jumping to the head of the 2-y-o division in 2010 but, when allowing for the amount he had in hand, producing one of the best performances from any juvenile in recent years, verging on top-class after just 3 runs and having the potential to do more still, including this year, with the Dewhurst or Racing Post Trophy reportedly on the agenda; connections apparently view Frankel more as one for the Guineas than Derby, holding stamina doubts, from the manner in which he races (has high cruising speed and sharp turn of foot) rather than his pedigree (Galileo close relation to Bullet Train from the family of Powerscourt), but after making an eye-catching move from last to first approaching the turn in here, he powered clear in the straight and certainly wasn't stopping at the line; a big, strong colt, there's no reason whatsoever to think Frankel won't train on and he is a truly exciting prospect, in expert hands to fulfil his potential, too.”

His 10-length win over Klammer (with subsequent Irish Derby winner Treasure Beach back in third) was a devastating performance to anyone who watched it, but, using Timeform ratings, Frankel’s devastation was put into context. He ran to a rating of 128, a level of form that two-year-olds very rarely achieve, and the report for that race understandably described him as “verging on top-class”. Though many already suspected it, the Timeform ratings confirmed that Frankel was a most-exciting two-year-old, completely deserving of short ante-post prices for the following year’s classics. To put Frankel’s win into perspective, his performance in the Royal Lodge as a two-year-old would have been good enough to win the 2016 Guineas, in which the winner Galileo Gold ran to a 2 lb inferior rating.

So, getting back to our original question, what can Timeform ratings tell us about the standard of horses running in top-level races in recent years? The graphs below show the end-of-season Timeform master ratings for all horses in training that year rated 120 and above.

If anyone was still wondering, Timeform are certainly under no illusions as to whether Camelot’s Derby year (2012) was a below-par crop of three-year-olds (as was the general consensus at the time). Luckily, with Frankel still at large, 2012 did at least contain a strong group of older horses.

The retirement of Frankel and the likes of Excelebration and Nathaniel at the end of 2012, combined with a relatively lowly-rated bunch of three-year-olds coming through the ranks, meant that 2013’s older horses were reduced somewhat in quality from the previous year.

However, 2013 was a more higher-quality year for three-year-olds, with the likes of Toronado (133), Dawn Approach (132) and Olympic Glory (132) all achieving top-class master ratings by the end of the season.

This brings us on to an important point. With Toronado and Olympic Glory staying in training at four, not only was 2014 the best year for older horses in terms of the number of horses rated by Timeform as very smart or above, it was also a strong year from a ratings perspective for three-year-olds.

One of the reasons for that is that to achieve a high rating, you do not only require a talented horse, but also a highly-rated horse for the talented individual to beat. A good example of this is the 2014 Derby winner Australia. His runs in the Guineas, Derby and Irish Derby—where he finished third, first and first, respectively—saw him achieve high-class form from Timeform’s point of view. However, Australia’s best rating, where he achieved top-class form, came in the Juddmonte International, when he pulled two lengths clear of a field containing the top-class older pair of Telescope, who had won the Hardwicke at Royal Ascot, and Mukhadram, who had won the Eclipse earlier that season.

The fact that the likes of Australia and Kingman – who may well have been capable of posting a rating in the mid to high 130s under the right circumstances – did not stay in training in 2015 undoubtedly had a big impact on the pool of older horses, which was the only year in the past six that did not feature a single top-class individual (the number of high-class horses was also lower than in most recent years).

Back to the particular matter at hand—here is a plot including 2016’s horses and the ratings they have achieved so far this season.

Obviously there is still plenty of racing to come in 2016, and this may well look very different after Champions Day in October, especially when it comes to the three-year-olds, with both Harzand and US Army Ranger both potentially top-class horses (both currently high-class with a ‘p’) and a number of horses who may well improve to boost the total number of three-year-olds rated 120+.

However, the number of top older horses does look a little thin, even for this stage, and is unlikely to change drastically between now and the end of the season, given that older horses are generally more established and not open to as much improvement. That said, the two top-class older horses this season, Postponed and Mecca’s Angel, have both improved from last term.

The top-class three-year-olds from 2015, Golden Horn and Muhaarar, both retired at the end of last season. The lack of quality three-year-olds coming through, combined with an exodus of some popular very smart/high-class older horses in recent years, including the likes of Al Kazeem, Free Eagle and Telescope, seems to be leading to another reduction in the number of 120+-rated older horses in training in 2016.

This data goes some way to agreeing with the opinion that 2016—with some notable exceptions such as Postponed and Mecca’s Angel—is perhaps a poorer-quality year in general for older horses in training in Britain and Ireland compared to the norm.