Timeform Irish Preview: Leopardstown, Sunday April 10

We are used to Aidan O’Brien dominating many of the listed/Group races in Ireland over the summer, but his record isn’t nearly as impressive as normal in some of the earlier races in the calendar, which includes both the Guineas Trials as well as the Group 3 Ballysax Stakes, which are set to take place at Leopardstown on Sunday.

O’Brien did win the 2000 Guineas Trial in 2012 with Furner’s Green, but Kevin Prendergast and Dermot Weld have held the key plenty more times in recent years, taking five of the last eight renewals between them. Weld (bidding for a hat-trick in the race) saddles two on Sunday in True Solitaire and A Likely Story, with the former looking his best chance of the pair with Pat Smullen booked to ride.

O’Brien will probably have a pretty good handle on True Solitaire, considering he was closely matched with his Port Douglas when the pair met in the Group 2 Beresford stakes last season (True Solitaire went down by a short-head) and True Solitaire – who seems consistent rather than progressive – does have something to find on Timeform ratings (8 lb) with O’Brien’s first string in this race, Johannes Vermeer.

Johannes Vermeer was gradually progressive last season, and won the Group 1 Criterium International at Saint-Cloud on his final start, after finishing second in the Racing Post Trophy at Doncaster. He will appreciate the return to a mile, though he may have bigger targets (potentially over even further) on his radar.

Jim Bolger’s 2000 Guineas Trial runner Stenographer is also worth a mention after winning a maiden at the Curragh over six furlongs on debut. He has entries in both the Irish and French versions of the Guineas, and with more to come upped to a mile, is another interesting runner, and open to significant improvement on what he has done to date. At the early prices he probably makes most appeal at around 7/1 considering he arrives here fitter than the market principles and is still an unknown quantity somewhat.

Bolger, Kevin Manning and Godolphin also team up in the 1000 Guineas Trial with Queen of Sicily, who is one of a few fillies open to improvement here, a list which also includes John Oxx’s Red Starts (better than result in a listed race at the Curragh last time), Radiantly (did best work at the finish when fourth behind Coolmore last time) and How High The Moon, who was not knocked about when poorly placed in the same race as Radiantly last time.

Improvement is a necessity for those four fillies to match the level that Alice Springs is capable of, however, and she sets a smart standard on her two-year-old form, which includes a third in the Moyglare Stud Stakes and a fourth in the Cheveley Park Stakes, both of which came at the highest level. This drop back in grade could be what it takes for her to get off the mark in Group company (only other win bar her maiden was in valuable sales race) over a trip she handles – second at the Breeders’ Cup meeting over a mile – and she should be hard to beat.

Aidan O’Brien’s runner Beacon Rock also sets the standard in the Group 3 Ballysax Stakes, which is next on the card, but Ryan Moore prefers the less exposed Cook Islands, who sports a Timeform large P next to his rating after he won a Navan maiden with plenty when last seen in October. That form is not Group standard yet – the third horse home subsequently won a handicap off 88 – but Cook Island will be suited by the step up to this trip on pedigree and commands plenty of respect.

Other runners of note in the Ballysax include Idaho, who cost 750,000 guineas as a yearling and was sent off favourite for the Criterium de Saint-Cloud on his final two-year-old start, but probably found the test coming a little too soon in his development. He had looked a Group horse in the making when winning his maiden, however, and remains a fascinating runner.

O’Brien – who last won the Ballysax in 2013 with Battle of Marengo – clearly has a strong hand in this year’s renewal, but Jim Bolger’s Moonlight Magic, who is unbeaten in two starts and shapes as though this extra furlong will suit him plenty, will be a serious challenger. Moonlight Magic did well to overhaul the well-ridden Landofhopeandglory in a listed race over nine furlongs when he was last seen, and looks the biggest threat to O’Brien’s trio here.

Recommendations:

Back Stenographer in the 2000 Guineas Trial at Leopardstown on Sunday

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