Timefigure review: Newmarket and Newbury

Following an interminably wet and heavy-ground winter, it was a relief to return to some quality Flat action last week at Newmarket and Newbury on good to soft ground at worst, and events ended up putting a very different spin on the 2000 Guineas market in particular.

The Greenham has been the preferred choice in recent years for those preferring to run in a trial - Frankel, Kingman, Night of Vision and Barney Roy have all won or finished second in it in recent years  - and was chosen for much-touted Dewhurst flop Expert Eye to make his reappearance.

Up against good but not obviously top-class horses his second to the less vigorously-ridden James Garfield (who isn’t even entered in the Guineas) in a timefigure of 92 was laboured to say the least. Expert Eye isn’t out of the Guineas picture yet, but if he does go to Newmarket he has something to prove and his best timefigure – 114 – puts him in the pack and no more.

ICMYI | James Garfield fought off Expert Eye in yesterday's Greatwood Greenham Stakes @NewburyRacing

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Oddly, the horse that won the Dewhurst - U S Navy Flag – has even more to prove than Expert Eye after a miserable comeback behind his stable-companion Gustav Klimt in the Ballylinch Stud 2000 Guineas Trial at Leopardstown. U S Navy Flag might have found the seven-furlong trip inadequate but Gustav Klimt (115 timefigure) will surely head to Newmarket as the number one contender from the Aidan O’Brien stable with the step up to a mile likely to produce considerable improvement.

The horse that would surely start favourite for the Guineas if he was not going for the Kentucky Derby instead is Mendelssohn (127 timefigure) who was ‘represented’ in the Craven by James Garfield and in the Craven by Masar, both of whom had finished behind him in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf.

Masar looks to have developed into an imposing colt and won the Craven with enormous authority. His winning timefigure - 96 – is testimony to a steady early gallop but his 26 lb Timeform sectional upgrade as measured from the 3f marker elevates that rating to 122. Masar would have pushed Mendelssohn very close and finished a fair bit further ahead of James Garfield under different circumstances at Del Mar and deserves to be near the top of the Guineas betting.

The Craven rather burst the bubble of Racing Post Trophy runner-up Roaring Lion who couldn’t even manage second. Maybe the steadily-run nature of the race didn’t suit, but his best timefigure remains 113 and neither he nor The Pentagon (turned over in the Ballysax the previous week) did much to advance the claims of Gustav Klimt’s stablemate Saxon Warrior. Nonetheless the still-unbeaten Racing Post Trophy winner remains in the Guineas mix with a best timefigure of 114.  

So far as the fillies are concerned, the more convincing of the Nell Gwyn and Fred Darling winners, Soliloquy and Dan’s Dream, was Soliloquy, but neither of them impressed on the clock or are entered in the 1000 Guineas. Soliloquy posted a timefigure of 93 after showing the best turn of foot but her combined rating after including her upgrade was only 99.

The powerful Soliloquy dominates the Lanwades Stud Nell Gwyn Stakes at Newmarket. Godolphin's filly is not in the 1000 Guineas but could yet be supplemented

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Soliloquy’s defeat of Altyn Orda, who had won the Oh So Sharp here last autumn in a decent time (104) from Gavota, seemed to be a strong pointer to the prospects of the latter in the Fred Darling, but she could only manage ninth behind the surprise winner. Free Handicap winner Anna Nerium is at least in the Guineas but her best timefigure of 95 is well below the standard usually required.

So far as other performances at Newmarket last week were concerned, there was much to like about opening Newmarket maiden winner Aurum who was easily the best in the race on sectional upgrades (and would have been more so had they measured just his last furlong, so quickly was he going away at the finish) for all the early gallop meant his overall time was modest.

Oaks entry Qazyna created a similarly strong impression on the Wednesday as did Old Persian and Dukhan in the three-year-old ten-furlong handicap as the trend of upgrades being more informative continued. With the Thursday feature Abernant not run at a proper gallop, either, the best relative timefigure performance came from Nordic Lights (105) in the first division of the ten-furlong novice. He will probably advance his Derby credentials next in the Dante, though it would be no surprise to see runner-up Raa Atoll (94, this his debut) prove just as good in time. 

Over at Newbury, Raa Atoll’s stablemate and ten-furlong Newbury fillies’ maiden winner Lah Ti Dar posted a promising 89 timefigure on her debut, but pride of place among the unexposed horses at the Berkshire track went to Derby entry Young Rascal who took the eleven-furlong maiden in a timefigure of 101. He’s going to develop into a smart performer, as will Richard Tusk whose winning timefigure of 97 in the mile maiden was achieved in excellent fashion for a horse not only having his first run, but who will be even better over further.