Timefigure preview: Punchestown Festival

TUESDAY

The Champion Novice Chase isn’t the main event on the opening day of the Punchestown Festival - that honour is reserved for the Champion Chase - but it’s a cracking contest in its own right and provides a good bet as we see things. Colin Tizzard sends over Finian’s Oscar who ought to be suited by the step up to three miles and these easier fences after winning at Aintree last time, but in receipt of 7 lb Gordon Elliott’s Shattered Love, who boast the best timefigure, looks to be the one to be on.

The mare - who beat Finians Oscar comprehensively in the JLT at Cheltenham and just went down to the re-opposing Al Boum Photo in the Ryanair Gold Cup at Fairyhouse last time – will be well served by a return to the extended three miles. There’s little between Al Boum Photo and RSA runner-up Monalee so at the widely-available 6-1 - or 100-30 without favourite Monalee - Shattered Love looks very good value.

Al Boum Photo makes a late surge to win the @Ryanair Gold Cup at @Fairyhouse! pic.twitter.com/Xty440X4DF

— At The Races (@AtTheRaces) April 1, 2018

The opening Grade 1 event on Tuesday is the Champion Novice Hurdle. Willie Mullins has won five of the last nine renewals and provides four of the ten runners - including favourite Getabird - as he bids to reduce Gordon Elliott’s lead in the battle to be Irish Champion Trainer.

Getabird pulled his chance away in the Supreme, but might still be a good horse, though his timefigures and sectionals don’t quite back it up just yet. In summary, it’s a race to watch rather than get involved in.

Altior might be missing from the aforementioned Boylesports Champion Chase at 17:30 and how you approach it depends on how you think Douvan would have fared had he stood up at Cheltenham.

Given the fate that befell the others up with the strong gallop, it’s unlikely he would have beaten Altior or even Min. The latter sets the standard here with four timefigures of 164 or better (Douvan’s best is 160) and he will be suited by the return to two miles after getting chinned by Politologue at Aintree last time. Likely to be restrained off what promises to be a strong gallop, prices dictate that Min has to be the choice at 3-1.

WEDNESDAY 

Albert Bartlett winner Kilbricken Storm heads the Timeform ratings for the War Of Attrition Novice Hurdle on Wednesday, but Next Destination makes far more appeal from a timefigure perspective.

Kilbricken Storm was arguably fortunate to beat Santini at Cheltenham after getting first run; Next Destination had no excuses behind Samcro in the Ballymore, but few horses all meeting made more eye-catching progress from the last and even a strongly-run two and a half miles didn’t look enough of a test for him. He rates a very confident selection.

The Punchestown Gold Cup at 17:30 might be an opportunity for our Cheltenham Gold Cup fancy Road To Respect to make amends, but at the forecast odds he is hard to justify in what looks a very open affair.

Bellshill and Djakadam both have something to prove but the latter has a good record at this meeting, shaped with some encouragement at Cheltenham last time, and has the best timefigure to boot. Still, no bet is advised.     

THURSDAY 

The Champion Stayers Hurdle has attracted a field of 12, of which seven are trained by Willie Mullins. Cheltenham winner Penhill - who should have won at this meeting last year but for being set too much to do – probably deserves to be favourite for all his stable-companion Bacardys would surely have finished close up at Cheltenham but for falling at the last.

Penhill gives Paul Townend a double and Willie Mullins his sixth winner of the meeting by capturing the Albert Bartlett #TheFestival pic.twitter.com/KkjlTZ4FfE

— CheltenhamRacecourse (@CheltenhamRaces) March 17, 2017

Bacardys has the more scope for improvement given a well-run three miles, but that might not come about with the pace forecast set to be even and that will suit recent Liverpool Stayer’s Hurdle winner Identity Thief. His defeat of Stayers’ third Wholestone at Aintree on his first try at the trip came on the back of a fourth place in the Champion Hurdle and nothing in the field – other than Faugheen who can’t be fancied anyway –can boast anything like his best 156 timefigure. Identity Thief hacked up at Aintree and has no business starting at the forecast 6-1 with so many here just making up the numbers.

The Ryanair Novice Chase is an excellent opportunity for the best two-mile novice around Footpad to extend his winning run over fences. Petit Mouchoir should give him most to do, but that argument has been won by Footpad twice already this season

FRIDAY/SATURDAY

At the time of writing, Samcro holds entries in both the Champion Hurdle and the Champion Novice Hurdle. The latter would seem the more likely option and if he does take up that entry, then My Tent Or Yours in the Champion Hurdle market without the favourite (in Samcro’s absence probably Melon) would appeal.

He ran perfectly well at Aintree last time back from four months off at a trip that stretches him and he was second in this race last year coming from a long way back. The three-time Champion Hurdle runner-up has nothing to find with Melon from a timefigure point of view. 

Recommended bets:

Shattered Love in Tuesday's Champion Novice Chase at 6/1

Min in Tuesday's Champion Chase at 3/1

Next Destination in Wednesday's War Of Attrition Novice Hurdle at 2/1

Identity Thief in Thursday's Champion Stayers Hurdle at 6/1

My Tent Or Yours in Friday's Champion Hurdle "without the favourite" market