Timefigure debrief: Cheltenham Festival days 1 and 2

The Arkle was the first chase at the Festival, and was both run and won in remarkable fashion. The five-strong field included the three highest rated novice chasers, Footpad (165p going into the race), Saint Calvados (161p) and Petit Mouchoir (159p).

In running to a higher performance rating than any other Arkle winner since Sprinter Sacre in 2012 – a group which includes Altior, Douvan and Un De Sceaux – Footpad undoubtedly produced the outstanding performance on the opening day. His timefigure – 179 – was the best by a chaser since late 2015 (when Timeform started producing jumps timefigures), at least for 24 hours.

Footpad cruises to the Arkle Challenge Trophy Novices' Chase winner at @CheltenhamRaces.

Watch all the action LIVE on @ITV pic.twitter.com/WQzkAMwVCi

— ITV Racing (@itvracing) March 13, 2018

Altior and Footpad produce standout timefigures

In previewing the race, we demonstrated that Footpad’s win at Leopardstown compared very favourably with Min’s on the same day, and the latter was second to Altior in the Champion Chase on Wednesday, the last-named running to a season-topping 180 timefigure.

The visual comparison below attempts to account for slightly different ground conditions by effectively pitting Footpad against Altior in the same race. The plot uses adjusted times derived from the going allowance to find the “leader” from either race to show approximately how far behind (in seconds) Footpad and Altior would have been. Time was taken as the leaders jumped the first fence, so the first sectional comes between the first and second fence.

The leaders in the Champion Chase were faster early, but Saint Calvados and Petit Mouchoir raced clear at an unsustainable pace in the Arkle, as marked by the red section in the plot. Footpad was roughly two seconds behind the leaders jumping the ninth, with Altior a further 1.5 seconds back, before both started to make headway.

Footpad took the “lead” from Petit Mouchoir three out, while Saint Calvados, who failed to confirm the promise he’d shown on his three previous starts, dropped away tamely as if something were possibly amiss, rather than failing to cope with an even tougher race and pace.

Altior made up a lot of ground late, noticeably so in the straight, without quite reducing all the “deficit” on Footpad. That said, Footpad may have had more in the tank as he’d won the race so there was little need for him to run faster, while Altior still had Min for company in the straight.

Whilst Altior was carrying 6 lb more than Footpad, the latter has far better prospects of turning Altior over in the 2019 Champion Chase than the current ante-post odds of 5/1 suggest, though either could yet be aimed at the Gold Cup.   

On that subject, the other chase performance of note over the first two days was that of Presenting Percy in the RSA, who boasted the strongest form and best timefigure heading into the race. He didn’t have to run to a good time to win (138 timefigure), but the conditions certainly played to his strengths, and he looks a tailor-made Gold Cup horse.

Another win for Ireland! Presenting Percy has won the RSA Insurance Novices' Chase pic.twitter.com/7iNtU75kaL

— ITV Racing (@itvracing) March 14, 2018

Timefigure suggests Buveur d'Air didn't win a vintage renewal

The best - although slightly underwhelming timefigure - over hurdles on Tuesday was posted by reigning champion Buveur d’Air (161). The dual champion hurdler was never faster to any point from the first hurdle than Supreme winner Summerville Boy, until the run between the second last and the last, and even then that small advantage might have been eroded had Summerville Boy jumped the second last cleanly.

With Melon (second to Labaik in an ordinary Supreme in 2017) hard on his heels, Mick Jazz and Identity Thief also close up, it doesn’t need forensic time analysis to conclude anything other than the 2018 renewal was substandard.

That same observation can’t be levelled at the Supreme. The form of the strongly-run Tolworth won by Summerville Boy at Sandown had been advertised by runner-up Kalashnikov in the Betfair Hurdle and the pair once again filled the first two places. Only a neck separated them at the line this time with their 155 timefigures identical to the one Altior recorded when winning the race (from Min and Buveur d’Air) two years previously.

Summerville Boy has looked a different horse away from slowly-run races on his last two starts so whether the small-field scenario he could face in novice chases next season will bring out the best in him remains to be seen.

There was little to get excited about in the Mares’ Hurdle in the only other race over the smaller obstacles on the opening day, where Benie des Dieux (103) stayed on the stoutest in a race shaped by a steady gallop in the early stages. Favourite Apple’s Jade – who is reportedly in season - was well below her best; there has to be a good chance she’s more effective on less testing ground, but, despite numerous wins, her best timefigure (150) is still some way short of her 158 form rating.

Summerville Boy deprives Kalashnikov in the Supreme Novices' Hurdle at @CheltenhamRaces.

Watch all the action LIVE on @ITV now pic.twitter.com/JbYNe5m1HW

— ITV Racing (@itvracing) March 13, 2018

Clock backs up the impression made by Samco

There can’t have been many horses that have lined up at the Cheltenham Festival with as much expectation and fascination in equal part as Samcro. After his Ballymore win (timefigure 159) in the opening race on Wednesday, his next appearance - at Punchestown apparently - is surely even more awaited.

His inter-hurdle times in his pre-Cheltenham races suggested he was full value for his 151P Timeform rating and - as he had in those races - he travelled all over his rivals without ever looking in any danger.

Comparing his inter-hurdle times here to those of the Coral Cup won by Bleu Berry – a Graded novice winner in Ireland last year - shows that Samcro has the potential to rate into the 170s before long. The Coral Cup was more strongly run early (assessed on the leaders’ times) but the Ballymore had caught up mid race and was then three seconds faster from after the eighth; Samcro, who was already two seconds up on the held-up Bleu Berry by the fifth, then increased that advantage again between the second last and last.

Those time differences, added to the 5 lb extra Samcro carried compared to Bleu Berry, suggest that he could have carried 12-7 in the Coral Cup and still won it by a couple of lengths. He’s potentially top class, as he has looked all along.  

Black Op (156) emerged best of the rest behind Samcro, improving again on the 152 he had recorded when chasing home Santini back in January. He looks the sort to develop further as a chaser, but, like his stable-companion Summerville Boy, will need to brush up his jumping.

Overall it looked a very strong Ballymore - the first six home all have plenty to recommend them - though Next Destination (155) would surely have been better off in the Albert Bartlett given how strongly he finished in third.

Part 2 of our Timefigure debrief for the Cheltenham Festival will be available on Monday.

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