The jumps jigsaw: Putting it all together

By and large, the UK’s National Hunt trainers were a frustrated bunch last season as they waited for the ‘Beast from the East’ to make its merry way and the opportunity to unleash their horses who had been waiting for some good ground.

Ultimately, that didn’t happen as quickly as had been hoped – the Cheltenham Festival, for example, witnessed the softest ground at the meeting for over twenty years – and trainers were left with little choice but to run their horses in unsuitably testing conditions, or wait (again) for another day.

Those days have been far easier to come by since the current jumps season ‘proper’ began, with good ground having been the status quo at racecourses across the UK and Ireland in recent weeks. However, as the old saying goes, ‘one man’s meat is another man’s poison’, and the prolonged dry spell that we have been going through of late has simply ostracised a different group of horses; those unsuited by ground without any juice in it, at least at this very early stage of the season.

Samcro is a prime example of that, with Gordon Elliott having ruled him out of the Morgiana Hurdle at Punchestown last weekend on account of the ground – described as good on the Timeform scale – being too quick. With Samcro now set for Saturday’s Fighting Fifth Hurdle at Newcastle, Elliott will have been pleased with the recent rain at Gosforth Park.

The ground was also recorded as good for the opening day of the recent November meeting at Cheltenham, exactly 35 weeks on from the only heavy-ground Gold Cup in my lifetime. The conditions could hardly have been more different, and yet, many of the chases over the course of the weekend bore an uncanny resemblance to that epic duel in March between Native River and Might Bite, with those ridden more prominently dominating from start to finish.

The best way of demonstrating this is by comparing the EPFs (Early Position Figures) of all eight race winners over fences at the November meeting. On a scale of 1-5 ­– 1 for a horse who led and 5 for a horse who was held-up – seven of the eight winners recorded an EPF of 1 or 2, with only Sceau Royal, a horse blessed with a blistering turn of foot, delivering his challenge from further back than that (EPF of 3) when winning the Shloer Chase.

Sceau Royal battles to win the Shloer Chase holding off a strong challenge by the old boy Simply Ned 👏#TheNovemberMeeting #CheltenhamRaces pic.twitter.com/2iwxW2Ra8e

— CheltenhamRacecourse (@CheltenhamRaces) November 18, 2018

Few would argue that Native River and Might Bite were simply the best horses on the day at the Festival, but there seemed to be other factors at play at the November meeting, given that hold-up horses appeared at a disadvantage to such a large extent, and our jumps editor Dan Barber (@DanBarberTF) has his own idea as to what they might be:

“A host of cynics, reactionaries, contrarians and, perhaps more accurately, realists (yes, some do exist) on social media have in recent seasons fought back against jumps racing's collective obsession with the Cheltenham Festival.

“And the same people – plus everyday punters – would be within their rights to express some dissatisfaction with the course's own preoccupation with a certain four days in March; those betting on – or connected to – hold-up horses over fences at Prestbury Park are immediately put at a disadvantage. And the setup of the track pre-Festival has a significant influence on that.

“The narrowing of the chase course, ostensibly in order to ensure fresh ground for the Festival, has caused a clear shift towards prominent racers holding an inherent edge.

“A tighter track allows the pace-setters to conserve energy when otherwise they might not have been able. And it gives patiently-ridden types less room to manoeuvre as they pick their way through, whether that be negotiating fallers, or horses that are weakening, as they try to secure a clear path.”

Last Saturday’s BetVictor Gold Cup, in which Baron Alco and Frodon occupied the first two positions from start to finish, is a good example of the difficulties that hold-up horses faced, with the strong-travelling pair Rather Be and Happy Five both having nowhere to go when Willie Boy took a crashing fall directly in front of them four out. Only six of the 18 runners completed, with three fallers in total and another four who unseated their riders.

Baron Alco holds off Frodon to win the BetVictor Gold Cup at @CheltenhamRaces! pic.twitter.com/fsgiLdzGnf

— ITV Racing (@itvracing) November 17, 2018

Cheltenham is by no means alone in being a course where horses who race forward of midfield in chases are favoured (the average EPF is lower than 3.0). In fact, data provided by @UTVilla reveals that the same can actually be said of every jumps track in the UK and Ireland, and the spread of average EPFs is very narrow indeed, with a low of 2.4 and a high of 2.8. Both the Old and New courses at Cheltenham are much nearer 2.8 on this scale, but the fact that they don’t favour prominent runners as much as other tracks is probably more a consequence of the following variables.

For a start, the competitiveness of the racing at Cheltenham compared to that at Carlisle – the track with the lowest average EPF in the UK – is like chalk and cheese. Cheltenham is synonymous with big-field handicaps in which you can normally make a case for at least half of the runners, while a track like Carlisle simply cannot attract the same quantity or quality when it comes to the equine participants. And, in the races that do boast double-figure fields, there are often only a few that you can make a legitimate case for, while those that you can’t are often ridden accordingly, held up in the hope of picking up the pieces late on should the leaders go too fast.

As Dan has already outlined, picking up the pieces is often easier said than done on the tightened track that Cheltenham has chosen to offer at pre-Festival meetings in recent years, but the influence of pace is no different there than at any other track, and there are sound reasons why the same conditions – specifically big and competitive fields – also have the potential to cause issues for those racing prominently. The bigger the field, the more competition for the lead there is likely to be, and pace pressure can always make those up front go that bit quicker than ideal.

Judgement of pace also brings jockeyship into play, and it is probably safe to assume that the best racecourses and the biggest races also attract the best jockeys. No one tactic or another can guarantee success in such circumstances, and instead the mark of a top jockey is one who can recognize the pace set-up in front of them and react accordingly to maximize the winning chance of their mount.

The last 12 months have seen two very different, but equally brilliant, examples of this. There is no finer jockey around Cheltenham than Ruby Walsh and he added another to his catalogue of textbook rides at the Festival in March, when guiding Footpad to glory in the Arkle. A 14-length victory for a 6/5-on favourite might sound like straightforward stuff, but Walsh excelled on Footpad, sitting well off the duelling leaders Petit Mouchoir and Saint Calvados – who ended up compromising their own chances – biding his time and not panicking despite being at least 10 lengths in arrears when making a bad mistake early on the second circuit.

Meanwhile, Paddy Brennan posted an early candidate for ‘Ride of The Season’ when winning the Silver Trophy Handicap Hurdle – an early highlight of the jumps campaign – aboard Garo de Juilley at Chepstow in October. After initially choosing to hold his mount up, Brennan recognised that the pace was only steady and sensibly took closer order out wide at halfway, continuing to move forward to the point that they were pressing the leader as the field entered the straight. Able to make full use of the advantageous position that he had secured as the sprint for home began, Brennan and his partner were always holding on from a clutch of fast-finishers at the death, with the quick-thinking jockey earning plenty of plaudits for the ride.

Ground, positioning, pace and jockeyship will all be buzzwords once again in the build up to Saturday, with a typically big – and competitive – field set to go to post for the Ladbrokes Trophy at Newbury. The going at the course is described as ‘good-to-soft, good in places’ at the time of writing, but there is plenty of rain forecast in the coming days and it would be no surprise should the word ‘good’ finally disappear from the going description for the weekend’s feature action.

As far as positioning and pace go, the Ladbrokes Trophy (formerly known as the Hennessy) has proved a good race for front runners in recent years, with three of the last seven renewals going the way of horses – namely Carruthers (2011), Smad Place (2015) and Native River (2016) – who posted an EPF of 1. Meanwhile, the race reports from some of the other renewals in that time frame tell you all that you need to know about the importance of pace judgement:

“A sound pace ensured it was the good jumping and stamina test that this race should be, and some of those that were up with the pace from the outset can have their efforts marked up slightly,” was the verdict after the victory of Bobs Worth (EPF of 3) in 2012.

“It was a more attritional race than is often the case with the Hennessy, half the field pulled up in the latter stages, fitness and stamina very much to the fore after the leaders went off too fast for their own good,” read the report after the 2014 win of Many Clouds (3).

“The race was well-run – perhaps overly so,” was the assessment after Total Recall (3) came from midfield to deny Whisper close home 12 months ago.

So, how does all that help us when it comes to finding this year’s winner? Bookmakers are currently going 6/1 the field, with recent Sandown winner Elegant Escape leading the way, but it’s the horse who chased him home there who makes more appeal, having long looked the ideal type for this race.

Elegant Escape collars Thomas Patrick almost on the line in a thrilling 188Bet Future Stars Intermediate Chase at Sandown

Results 👉👉 https://t.co/7iJOPsdIyZ pic.twitter.com/7xQZrb14lR

— Racing UK (@racing_uk) November 11, 2018

Described in this season’s edition of Horses To Follow as a “thorough stayer who jumps well”, Thomas Patrick couldn’t have been more impressive when giving his rivals a jumping lesson on his sole previous start over C&D in March, and he is 5 lb better off at the weights with Elegant Escape here. There could be even more to come from him over fences, too, given his lightly-raced profile in this sphere, while his versatility in terms of running style provides regular partner Richard Johnson with plenty of options; he has made the running in his last two starts, but doesn't have to lead should his experienced pilot decide that those around him are going too fast.

With the ground likely to come in his favour if the forecast is anything to go by (seemingly best with ease underfoot), all the necessary pieces of the puzzle appear to be coming together, and quotes of around 8/1 are worth snapping up now.