Swinton Hurdle: Nicholls' Go all set to leave rivals Flat-footed

Saturday’s Swinton Handicap Hurdle at Haydock is a race that holds fond memories for plenty at Timeform as Joe Jo Star, owned by the Timeform-heavy Ipso Facto Syndicate, won it in 2009 and the Timeform Betfair Racing Club and Matt Taylor-owned Red Merlin scored in 2012.  Both horses had run on the Flat previously, as had the winners in 2005 (Coat of Honour), 2007 (Leslingtaylor), 2008 (Blue Bajan), 2010 and 2011 (Eradicate), 2013 (Barizan) and 2014 (Ballyglasheen), and it’s clear that possessing Flat speed is a benefit.

Timeform top rated for the latest renewal as things stand is Beltor who won over 10 furlongs on the level for Sir Mark Prescott and landed his first two starts over hurdles for his current trainer Robert Stephens (former assistant to Prescott), including the Adonis Juvenile Hurdle in February 2015. He wasn’t as good when sixth in the Triumph, and was beaten a long way on his return in the Fighting Fifth last November, but was found to have chipped a bone in his knee in the latter race (has had surgery since) and looks worth another chance. He could be ideally suited to big-field handicaps given his strong-travelling style.

The current favourite is Ch’tibello who got off the mark at the fourth time of asking for Dan Skelton (had won his sole start over hurdles in France previously) in the Grade 2 Scottish Champion Hurdle at Ayr last month. Despite that being a rather messy race, not helped by an omitted flight in the straight, it looked strong form (only horse to run since was ninth Zamdy Man who’s won a chase) and Ch’tibello is open to further improvement. Don’t forget how he gave Altior a race at Ascot last October.

The Philip Hobbs yard has a strong hand with last year’s winner War Sound and Wait For Me, currently second favourite behind Ch’tibello. War Sound was backed at long odds for the Champion Hurdle before his return in the Betfair Hurdle in February, but he could manage only twelfth there (possibly needed the run) and might have been forced to miss the likes of the Imperial Cup and County Hurdle since rather than been kept back specifically for this.

Last year’s Champion Bumper third Wait For Me won his second and third starts over hurdles and then ran well making handicap debut in first-time hood when fourth of 26 to Superb Story in the County at Cheltenham, despite the race not going his way (fared best of those held up having been forced to go the scenic route). Wait For Me’s jumping (which had come under question) stood up well under a change of tactics (dropped out) in a big field at the Festival and he remains with potential.

The Hobbs yard could also run Cheltenian who has claims on his best form but finished only sixth last year and was below form when claimer ridden in the County last time.

Sign of A Victory could be interesting as he's long appealed as the sort of horse who’d be most at home in a big-field handicap, and he’s now 3 lb lower than when finishing three lengths fourth to Nabucco in a similar race at Ascot on his return (subsequent Ladbroke Hurdle dead-heater Jolly’s Cracked It one place ahead). He won a Flat maiden last December (back over hurdles twice since) and is one of just two runners for the Nicky Henderson stable that saddled Eradicate to back-to-back wins in this race.

The other Henderson runner is Cardinal Walter who ran well then third to Shrewd at Musselburgh on his belated return in February and wasn’t seen to best effect when mid-field in the County since. There remains a sense of unfinished business about Cardinal Walter over timber and it will be potentially significant should either he or Sign of A Victory run in this race on Saturday given they are both entered on the Flat at Ascot the same afternoon.

The aforementioned Shrewd followed up that Musselburgh win with another success in a three-runner conditional novice hurdle at Doncaster in March, and he made it four wins in five starts in a Flat race at Wolverhampton later that month. He made little impression in the Scottish Champion Hurdle last time but the handicapper has been quite fair in taking 5 lb off his mark since.

Paul Nicholls has never won this prize, but that could change this year as he has three runners all with winning claims, namely All Set To Go, All Yours and Some Plan. The pick could well be All Set To Go who was a useful performer at up to 10 furlongs on the Flat in Ireland and has won three of six hurdles outings for his current trainer, including Taunton novices on his last two. He’s another strong traveller who should be ideally suited to the demands of a big-field handicap and looks primed to go well from a mark of 136.

Gwafa is another with a good profile for this race, a useful and progressive sort on the Flat in 2014 and the winner of two of his three completed starts over timber in recent months. He failed to complete through no fault of his own in the Top Novices’ at Aintree four weeks ago, badly hampered and unseating at the fourth, and remains with potential, though the bookmakers aren’t taking any chances with him at around 10/1.

John Constable is also worth a mention having caught the eye to some extent when sixth in the Scottish Champion Hurdle, especially if his stablemate Kudu Country’s win Tuesday is a sign the Evan Williams yard have turned the corner.

A very tough race to solve, with few chinks to be found among the top half-dozen in the betting. The five-year-olds All Set To Go, Gwafa, Beltor and Ch’tibello could be the ones to concentrate on, and the first three all have that Flat background to call upon, with the vote just going to Paul Nicholls’ All Set To Go.

Recommendation:

Back All Set To Go in the Swinton Handicap Hurdle at 10/1