Sussex Stakes Preview: Hot can scale the heights at last

The Sussex Stakes is the centrepiece of the Qatar Goodwood Festival, providing the first opportunity for the leading three-year-old milers to test their mettle against the top older performers. The three-year-olds have undoubtedly had the upper hand in recent years – that age group has been responsible for six of the last ten winners – and their domination looks set to continue if the betting for the latest renewal is anything to go by, with Too Darn Hot a short-priced favourite at the time of writing.

An outstanding two-year-old last season, when his wins included a dominant performance in the Dewhurst Stakes at Newmarket (by two and three quarter lengths from Commonwealth Cup winner Advertise), this is exactly the sort of race that Too Darn Hot was expected to be contesting – and winning – at the start of 2019, but it’s fair to say that the path here hasn’t gone as smoothly as his connections might have hoped.

Forced to miss the 2000 Guineas through injury, the son of Dubawi was then beaten in his first three starts this season – in the Dante Stakes at York, Irish 2000 Guineas at the Curragh and St James’s Palace Stakes at Royal Ascot – with his defeat on the latter occasion leading to him getting the title of the ‘worst managed horse’ this year, one given to him by his own trainer John Gosden.

Nevertheless, he readily put to bed the rumours of him not having trained on from his scintillating two-year-old career when dominating the Prix Jean Prat at Deauville (by three lengths from Space Blues) last time, leading over a furlong out and quickly forging clear. The extra furlong here is a slight concern, given how weak he was at the finish of the St James’s Palace, but this is a relatively easy mile, and the impression he created in France suggests that he is ready to start living up to the lofty expectations that were held for him at the start of the campaign.

TOO DARN HOT gets back to winning ways, claiming his first victory of 2019 in the (Group 1) Prix Jean Prat at @fgdeauville for @FrankieDettori and John Gosden!

(🎥@AtTheRaces)pic.twitter.com/uGSPNzSlEY

— Timeform Live (@TimeformLive) July 7, 2019

The main dangers to Too Darn Hot look to be another pair of three-year-olds in the shape of Circus Maximus and Phoenix of Spain, both of whom already have a verdict over him this season.

Dropped back markedly in trip after his sixth in the Derby, the former justified the surprising decision to supplement him with a much-improved display in first-time blinkers to win the St James’s Palace (by a neck from King of Comedy, with Too Darn Hot another three quarters of a length back in third) last time, getting first run on the runner-up and ultimately all out to hold on.

It’s fair to say that he was seen to maximum advantage given how that race developed, but it would be dangerous to dismiss it as a fluke, and having once again been supplemented at a cost of £70,000 last week, he shouldn’t be underestimated for Aidan O’Brien, who has recorded all five of his wins in this race with three-year-olds.

Phoenix of Spain, on the other hand, proved a big disappointment when only sixth in the St James’s Palace, but the ground may have been a factor on that occasion (best form on a faster surface), and he is well worth another chance to confirm his earlier promise.

Phoenix Of Spain wins the Tattersalls Irish 2,000 Guineas! pic.twitter.com/BAvZf2H6ED

— ITV Racing (@itvracing) May 25, 2019

A smart two-year-old last season, when his efforts included a head second to subsequent 2000 Guineas winner Magna Grecia in the Futurity Trophy at Doncaster, he certainly looked a high-class colt in the making when winning the Irish 2000 Guineas on his return at the Curragh (by three lengths from Too Darn Hot, well on top at the finish) in May, and his Ascot run was simply too bad to be true last time, so it would be no surprise to see him bounce back.

The three-year-old challenge is completed by Happy Power, who is a smart performer in his own right, as he showed when winning a listed race at York in June. His limitations were rather exposed when only seventh in the Jersey Stakes at Royal Ascot last time, however, and he looks to have plenty on his plate now stepping up even further in grade.

The pick of the older brigade looks to be Lord Glitters, who developed into a very smart performer last season, producing one of his better efforts when third in this race. He has improved again this time around, finishing a good third (a length and three quarters behind Almond Eye) in the Dubai Turf at Meydan on his return, and bouncing back from his Lockinge flop with a career best to gain a deserved Group 1 win in the Queen Anne Stakes at Royal Ascot (by a neck from the ill-fated Beat The Bank) last time, finding plenty to edge ahead close home.

A consistent sort, there is no reason why he shouldn’t give another good account, though the task of trying to concede 8 lb to some high-class three-year-olds could just prove beyond him here.

Lord Glitters wins the Queen Anne Stakes! @Ascot #RoyalAscot pic.twitter.com/f71RsVOzfT

— At The Races (@AtTheRaces) June 18, 2019

Similar comments apply to Accidental Agent and Zabeel Prince, both of whom arrive here with a bit to prove. The former won the Queen Anne (by half a length by from Lord Glitters) at last year’s Royal meeting, but his fortunes in the latest renewal of that race could hardly have been more different, with the five-year-old planting himself as the stalls opened and refusing to race.

Admittedly, he got back on track to some extent when fourth (three lengths behind Beat The Bank) in the Summer Mile back at Ascot last time, but even his best form leaves him with plenty to find in the first-time cheekpieces here, and he continues to come with obvious risks attached until he can prove that his Queen Anne display was a one-off.

Meanwhile, Zabeel Prince returned better than ever this year, with wins in the Earl of Sefton Stakes at Newmarket in April and the Prix d’Ispahan at Longchamp in May (by three quarters of a length from Study of Form). However, he has failed to reproduce that form when stepped up to a mile and a quarter the last twice – in the Prince of Wales’s Stakes at Royal Ascot and Coral-Eclipse at Sandown – and the drop back in trip needs to spark a serious revival here.

The field is completed by I Can Fly, a stablemate of Circus Maximus who has to concede only 5 lb to the three-year-olds as the only filly in the line-up. She would be mildly interesting on a line through her second to Roaring Lion (beaten just a neck) in last season’s Queen Elizabeth II Stakes at Ascot, but that remains by far the standout effort on her record, yet to run to that level in six starts this term, and the balance of her form suggests that she is up against it here.

Conclusion

In summary, this looks a prime opportunity for Too Darn Hot to take the next step in rebuilding his reputation. He went a long way to doing just that when readily winning the Prix Jean Prat last time, and, the clear standard-setter on weight-adjusted ratings, it will be disappointing if he can’t follow up in conditions that should suit. Fellow three-year-olds Circus Maximus and Phoenix of Spain complete the shortlist.

Recommendation:

Back Too Darn Hot at 6/5 in Wednesday's Sussex Stakes at Goodwood