Sussex Stakes Position Map Preview: No let off for Without Parole's rivals

Last year’s renewal of the Sussex Stakes proved to be a muddling contest, with Here Comes When causing a huge shock in testing conditions, and Wednesday’s race could prove to be extremely tactical.

Muddling Pace

Of the eight who have been declared for the Group 1 contest, six hold an Early Position Figure (EPF) of 3 or higher, meaning that they tend to sit off the pace in the initial stages, with only Without Parole having a 2 to his name, while the tactics of French raider Orbaan have been mixed so far.

Whilst Without Parole has the most prominent EPF, a very weak pace is forecast, and as such it could be Orbaan who makes the running with Silvestre De Sousa booked to ride. He sat mid-field when winning a listed contest at Saint-Cloud at the beginning of the month, but his jockey tends to sit more prominently than Andrea Atzeni, who rides Without Parole, and De Sousa may well take the initiative.

Orbaan has a lot to find in terms of form with the principals, but the fact that he heads here after just three starts suggests that top trainer Andre Fabre holds him in high regard.

Three-year-old form key

The older generation of milers have a bit to find on form, meaning that it is the unbeaten Without Parole who sets the standard on the back of his win in the St James’s Palace last month. He produced a high-class performance at Royal Ascot, and is quickly making up into one of the best in his generation. He was value for a bit more than the winning margin at Royal Ascot, making his move earlier than the runner-up, and with further improvement likely, he will be very difficult to beat.

Behind Without Parole at Ascot was Gustav Klimt, who ran a career best in second. He has been kept busy by his trainer this term, finishing third in a Group 1 at Deauville since, and whilst he doesn’t have much to find on Timeform ratings to reverse that form, he was slightly flattered by the proximity to Without Parole that day, and it is unlikely that he will get such an ideal passage this time around, in what’s likely to be a highly tactical affair.

Without Parole escapes the clutches of Gustav Klimt to win the St James's Palace Stakes at @Ascot

Another win for @FrankieDettori

Watch LIVE on @ITV4 pic.twitter.com/A7mggA2Hk1

— ITV Racing (@itvracing) June 19, 2018

The biggest threat could come from Expert Eye, who was a stunning winner of the Vintage Stakes at this meeting 12 months ago. He disappointed on his next three starts, but returned to his best when blitzing the field in the Jersey Stakes at Royal Ascot last time, showing a level of form matched in that race this decade only by multiple Group 1 winner Ribchester. Expert Eye had a strong pace to aim at that day, however, something he is unlikely to get here.  

The older generation

Leading the challenge from the older generation is Beat The Bank, who had struggled in two starts this season since disappointing in the Queen Elizabeth II Stakes last October, but returned to his best when winning the Group 2 Summer Mile at Ascot a fortnight ago. He won a Group 3 here last year, and is likely to continue to give a good account, but more is needed for him to prove a serious threat to the principals.

Lightning Spear has been threatening at this level this season, hitting the frame in both the Lockinge and the Queen Anne. He’s a very smart miler who will run his race, though he will likely prove vulnerable to less-exposed rivals again. The same can be said for Lord Glitters, who was one place better at Royal Ascot, before finishing behind Beat The Bank the Summer Mile. The field is completed by So Beloved, who is on a long losing run and has consistently been finding at least one too good at lower levels; he is also declared for the Lennox Stakes on Tuesday.

Conclusion

The three-year-olds have the superior form, and are the ones to concentrate on. As such, Without Parole should prove a tough nut to crack. He was value for more than the winning margin at Royal Ascot last time when defeating Gustav Klimt, and with the rejuvenated Expert Eye unlikely to get a strong pace to aim at, he can seal a successive wins at Group 1 level.

Recommended bet: 

Back Without Parole to win Wednesday's Sussex Stakes at 7/4