Sussex Stakes 2016: Ballydoyle send The Gurkha into battle alone

Canford Cliffs, Frankel times two, Toronado, Kingman and Solow—we’ve probably been spoilt in the last half a dozen renewals of the Sussex Stakes, even acknowledging that a Group 1, by definition, should be won by the best of the best. None of those horses faced more than seven rivals in the Sussex Stakes, and the fact that this year's race features more runners—10—than any renewal since 2005 highlights the absence of a top-class performer, i.e. a horse with a Timeform master rating of 130+.

Indeed, the top-rated horse in Wednesday's Sussex—judged on weight-adjusted Timeform ratings, which allows a measured comparison between the generations—is on a lower figure than the equivalent horse in any of the other renewals since 2007.

The horse in question is The Gurkha whose adj. rating of 134 (master rating of 127, high class) is fractionally higher than the one held by Galileo Gold. While the latter beat the former by a length and a quarter in the St James’s Palace Stakes at Royal Ascot, Timeform took the view that The Gurkha would have won under different circumstances, an opinion backed up by Simon Rowlands’ findings in his Sectional Debrief (“That The Gurkha was an unlucky loser is strongly suggested by sectionals”).

The graphs below show what sort of performance (on the Timeform scale) it has taken to finish placed in the Sussex in the last 10 years, and also how those first three finishers fared on their previous three starts.

The graphs highlight two points straight away: firstly, the majority of recent winners didn’t need to produce an improved performance to come out on top; and secondly, all recent winners had run to a Timeform performance rating of 120 or more on their previous outing.

Unsurprisingly, the group of horses that come into this year’s race on the back of 120+ rated performances occupy the top five places in the betting, namely The Gurkha, Galileo Gold, Awtaad, Lightning Spear and Birchwood, though that shortlist can be trimmed as Birchwood is 3 lb and more behind the others on adj. ratings (it’s surely very unlikely that all of his key form rivals will run below their previous best).

The five-year-old Lightning Spear looks overpriced at 10/1, only 3 lb behind The Gurkha on adj. ratings despite having to concede 8 lb to his three-year-old rivals, while Galileo Gold has the benefit of course experience having won the Vintage Stakes a year ago, but the most likely winner in Timeform’s view is The Gurkha.

One slightly surprising thing about this year’s Sussex is the lack of a Balldoyle pacemaker, especially given the way the St James’s Palace Stakes panned out, with Galileo Gold sitting second and getting first run on The Gurkha. Ballydoyle ran pacemakers to aid each of Giant’s Causeway in 2000, Black Minnaloushe and Bach in 2001, Rock of Gibraltar in 2002, Statue of Liberty in 2003, Excellent Art in 2007, Henrythenavigator in 2008, Rip Van Winkle in both 2009 and 2010 and Declaration of War in 2013, and we also now know The Gurkha stays a mile and a quarter, even if it might not ultimately prove his optimum distance.

Does this mean the Coolmore partners and Aidan O’Brien are content with relying on Toormore (ironically, owned by their big rivals Godolphin), So Beloved and Kodi Bear to provide enough pace to help tee things up for The Gurkha, or do they plan to ride The Gurkha close to the speed, just as they have with Alice Springs and Highland Reel when recording recent Group 1 wins? The Gurkha did make the running for his maiden win and only had a couple of horses ahead of him for most of the way in the 13-runner French 2000 Guineas (the sole runner from his stable both times). He was joined by stablemate Bravery in the Eclipse last time but that horse appeared to be running on his own merits despite being a big outsider.

Here’s the Timeform Pace Map for the 2016 Sussex Stakes (which can be found on Race Passes by clicking the ‘Show Hints’ button and then ‘Show’ Pace Map):

The Gurkha is actually the actually the joint-fourth highest-rated Sussex runner (adj. ratings) ever for Aidan O’Brien, who has run 25 horses in the race previously, winning with Giant’s Causeway in 2000, Rock of Gibraltar in 2002, Henrythenavigator in 2008 and Rip Van Winkle in 2009. Only Rock of Gibraltar (135), Henrythenavigator (136) and Rip Van Winkle (140 in 2009 and 141 in 2010) were rated higher than The Gurkha, which is an impressive feat for one so lightly raced, even acknowledging that the plethora of pacemakers occupy plenty of positions on the list.

What makes The Gurkha’s career so far particularly impressive is the fact he won a Group 1 within 39 days of making his debut. That is a rather unique achievement, certainly in Europe. In fact, it appears no other horse aged three or over and trained in Britain or Ireland has managed that feat in a shorter space of time since at least 1992 (when Timeform’s electronic database began). If you open up the date range to 60 days then the list includes User Friendly (43 days in 1992), Eswarah (49 in 2005), Commander In Chief (50 in 1993), Ballydoyle’s own Ruler of The World (55 in 2013), Single Empire (55 in 1997) and Brief Truce (59 in 1992).

Another key point to make with The Gurkha is that he’s rather flying in the face of his immediate pedigree. He’s out of the mare Chintz who won twice at two but failed to win in seven starts at three, unable to better her juvenile form. After Chintz’ first foal Illinois died after making a winning debut at two, her second foal Queen Nefertiti also failed to win at three (from five outings) after scoring on her sole outing at two.

So, there you have it, an average Sussex containing some high-class but not top-class performers, with the verdict going to The Gurkha, an inexperienced but already battle-hardened colt trusted by powerful connections to get the job done.