Supreme Novices' Hurdle: Choose Charli for curtain-raiser

By Ben Fearnley — published 7th February 2017

Ben Fearnley runs through the key competitors ahead of the 2017 Supreme Novices' Hurdle and picks out a bet.

As discussed in last week’s novice hurdlers feature, we are potentially looking at a fairly weak group of challengers ahead of this year’s Supreme Novices’ Hurdle, on Timeform ratings, at least. There was plenty to like about Melon’s 10-length win on his first start for Willie Mullins and, having been a 10/1 chance prior to even being seen out for his new stable, he is now around 3/1 favourite for the traditional Festival curtain-raiser. It is hard to assess whether he made more or less appeal at his odds before he ran at Leopardstown compared to now, but one thing is certain – he makes limited appeal from an ante-post perspective.

One who has been at the forefront of the betting for this race for some time is 2015 Champion Bumper winner Moon Racer. He is unbeaten at Cheltenham, having also won a bumper at the track earlier that season and then the Sharp Novices’ Hurdle in November, and given his overall profile, it is not a big concern that we haven’t seen him since. The Sharp was won by Altior last year, who of course went on to Supreme success, but this year’s renewal didn’t look the most solid on form, with a slow pace until two out meaning a bunched/messy finish. On the bare form of that run, Moon Racer would need to improve plenty to figure in an average Supreme, but given his bumper form, he certainly has the scope to do so.

Behind the top pair in the market are a lot of horses who are considered unlikely to run in the Supreme, including the likes of Finian’s Oscar and Neon Wolf – first and second favourite for the Neptune (though Neon Wolf's trainer suggested that the latter may skip the Festival altogether) – and a host of lightly-raced Willie Mullins-trained horses, who are fairly hard to assess.

Guessing which of the J.P. McManus-owned juveniles near the top-end of the market may run here is tricky, but in a year where the group of older novices seem to lack depth compared to the last few years, both Defi du Seuil and Charli Parcs would have good chances on ratings if showing up. Thanks to the various non-runner no bet schemes available with most bookmakers at this stage, the usual risk involved with backing a horse with more than one plausible Festival entry is negated, and that concession brings both runners into strong consideration.

Defi du Seuil is five from five for Phillip Hobbs and has strong claims on the form of his 13-length win in the Grade 1 Future Champions Juvenile Hurdle at Chepstow. He didn’t have to be at his best to justify short odds in the Finesse Hurdle on Trials Day at Cheltenham last time, but it was interesting that he was eventually the sole J.P McManus representative in the race – run on soft ground – after both he and Charli Parcs had been declared. Charli Parcs did win on soft in France before being sold, but was an impressive winner of a Kempton juvenile hurdle on his first start for his new connections on good ground, and could be the more suitable spring-ground horse of the two (also the shorter of the two in the betting for the Supreme). With the second from that Kempton race, Master Blueyes, improving on his next start to go down by just a neck in a similar contest, a positive view can be taken of the form, and Charli Parcs is open to significant improvement going forward (has a Timeform ‘large P’). He is currently rated higher than both Moon Racer and Melon (rated 1 lb lower, but also has a ‘large P’), and is worth getting on side for the Supreme (NRNB) at larger odds than both of that pair.

Recommendation:

Back Charli Parcs for the Supreme Novices Hurdle at 6/1 (NRNB)