Sun Chariot Stakes 2016: Volta currently a live contender

The Sun Chariot Stakes for fillies and mares over a mile has been won by France four times, Britain twice and Ireland once in the last eight years, and the latest renewal looks set to be another international affair. The 10 entries at this stage are made up of five horses trained Britain, three in France and one from each of Ireland and South Africa, with the ratings headed by Alice Springs from Ballydoyle.

Alice Springs looked a very smart filly when winning the Falmouth Stakes on the July Course at Newmarket in July and the Matron Stakes at Leopardstown this month, both against her elders. Some might put her disappointing effort in the Prix Rothschild in between down to the travel, making the link with another below-form effort in the French 1000 Guineas in May, though that may not be the case given she ran well when second at the Breeders’ Cup last year. With that in mind, there’s not much value in her current price of 6/4.

Alice Springs only sets the standard on Timeform weight-adjusted ratings by 1 lb from Ervedya, too, with South African mare Smart Call just 1 lb behind Ervedya. All three French fillies are by Siyouni, with Ervedya and Siyoushake four-year-olds and thus from his first crop. The French-trained Siyouni ran once in Britain, when fourth of nine to Canford Cliffs in the 2010 St James’s Palace Stakes, but his best progeny Ervedya has already raced on these shores twice before, winning the Coronation Stakes in 2015 and finishing fifth in the Queen Anne at the latest Royal Ascot. Ervedya turned in her best effort of this term when third of eleven to Ribchester in Prix Jacques le Marois at Deauville last time, but she never really looked like winning and the form was still slightly below her best last year; she’s a fair price at 7/2 but no more than that.

Siyoushake didn’t need to improve to win a Group 3 last time and will need to raise her game by some way to follow up here. She was also three places—and two and three-quarter lengths—behind runner-up Volta when fifth in the Prix Rothschild won by Qemah at Deauville in late-July. That looks a significant piece of form given Qemah had beaten Alice Springs (who was admittedly unlucky not to go close) into third when winning the Coronation Stakes at Royal Ascot six weeks earlier. Volta is a fascinating contender here as, while she’ll need to improve by around 8 lb to beat on on-song Alice Springs, she’s done nothing wrong in her races over a mile, with her form figures reading 21112 and including a four-length win in the Group 2 Prix Sandringham at Chantilly in June and her good second in the Rothschild. She also finished third in the French Oaks behind next-time-out winners La Cressionniere and Left Hand and could yet pull out more.

The aforementioned Smart Call is trickier to weigh up given she’s done all her racing in her homeland. She proved better than ever when winning two Grade 1s (over nine furlongs and a mile and quarter) by clear margins at the start of the year and has clearly been targeted at this race for some time; she could easily be overpriced at 12/1, though it’s hard to be sure.

Leading the home defence is one of the most improved fillies in training this year: Persuasive. After winning the Sandringham Handicap at Royal Ascot in June, she completed the five-timer in the Atalanta Stakes at Sandown two months later by three lengths from Blond Me (who won a Turkish Group 2 on her next outing). Persuasive emerged with her reputation, if not her unbeaten record, intact when second in the Matron Stakes recently, but she was three and a quarter lengths behind the winner Alice Springs (after briefly getting to the front in the final furlong) so clearly needs to find more to reverse that form.

Irish Rookie is a likeable filly, in the frame on five of her six starts this term, including when third in a Maisons-Laffitte Group 3 recently following two months off, but she’s not won since her two-year-old year in 2014. The entries are completed by Always Smile, who disappointed in first-time cheekpieces in the Oak Tree Stakes at Goodwood last time, front runner Arabian Queen and Epsom Icon.

To wrap up, Alice Springs has just about the best form but she makes little appeal at 6/4 with a number of dangers in opposition. Ervedya should be on the premises, but she’s not quite looked the filly of last year this time around, and making more appeal at current odds are Volta, Smart Call and Persuasive. Preference goes to Volta who has done nothing wrong in her career so far and comes from a family who tend to get better with age (her half-brother to Calvados Blues was third in the Dubai Sheema Classic aged five).

Recommended bet:

Back Volta at 11/2 in the Sun Chariot Stakes at Newmarket on Saturday