Simon Rowlands: 2016 All-Weather Finals Day Preview

The end of March is a time when many a racing enthusiast “switches codes”, though the thoughts of a dedicated number have never strayed far from Flat racing, despite the rival attractions/distractions of such as the Cheltenham Festival.

For them, Good Friday is not a time for rest and reflection but a time for study and celebration as the All-Weather Championships come to their climax at Lingfield Park on AW Finals’ Day. Speed, not tweed, is the order of the day.

For most of us, even if we have “kept our eye in” with the AW action during the dark winter months, a degree of adjustment is required.

It all comes down to identifying a good bet at the end of the day, but the means of getting there are rather different on the Flat to over jumps. Ability and suitability are all-important in both codes, but draw, pace and the likelihood or otherwise of avoiding trouble in running take on great significance on the Flat.

Whether Flat or jumps is your poison, preparation is king, so this preview of Good Friday’s races will start by attempting to tool up the reader with some important facts.

Lingfield is a fairly tight, left-handed track, so it is no surprise that lower-drawn horses continue to fare well there. What may be more surprising is the degree to which that is so, especially at six furlongs (the advantage over par for stalls 1 to 3 is approaching 5 lb). If you are not drawn low then being drawn highest can be better than being drawn in the middle.

It is, as ever, worth considering which trainers have been in form. The following table also uses handicaps only as a way of levelling opportunity (trainers with 12 or more runners this year).

There are some familiar names there, and some less familiar ones. At the other end of the scale, languishing around the 40% mark are Kevin Ryan, Karl Burke, Ralph Beckett, Simon Dow, James Given and Joseph Tuite.

Timeform has been taking sectionals for every horse in every race on AW for a long time now. Sectionals properly need to be compared with a horse’s overall time (and what that overall time could be expected to have been given the horse’s ability and circumstances) but simply knowing that a horse can run fast is useful, especially if speed more than stamina is to be tested.

The following are the fastest last-two-furlong sectionals at Lingfield this AW Championships by horses with entries on Finals’ Day.

That lightning-quick sectional from Cold As Ice goes a long way to explaining why a mare who finished third last time is such a short price for the opening Fillies’ And Mares’. The ex-South African Grade 2 winner stormed home that day in a sectional bettered only by the flying Tryster (20.97s) at this course in recent times.

The presence of a couple of likely front-runners means this should be a fair test, and Cold As Ice is the best performer by a comfortable margin, but she has drawn stall 10 and Volunteer Point (stall 3) is a strong each-way alternative.

The pace of race 2 – the Sprint – is forecast to be “strongly contested”, and that plus wide draws could count against form choice Lancelot du Lac (a splendidly consistent individual) and leading fancy Lightscameraction.

It could be worth taking a chance with Alben Star – a winner and second in this previously – to come late and good after things have not entirely gone his way recently. His presence in the list of leading sectional horses shows he still has some toe.

Moonrise Landing is favourite for the Marathon but without much in hand of her rivals and with a 104-day break to overcome. Ballynanty is more progressive than most, might have beaten Anglophile with better luck at this course and distance last time, and is backable at around fourth-favourite.

The Mile Championship could prove a messy race, with little obvious pace, and that was the undoing of Sovereign Debt 12 months ago. I backed him each-way at 5/1 a few weeks ago, but think this may best be sat out now that price has disappeared.

Mindurownbusiness has been unstoppable at around a mile recently but flopped in this last year, and there is not much built into his odds for comfort.

Grendisar has been one of the big success stories of this AW Championships, winning the Winter Derby Trial then the Winter Derby itself on his last two starts, but he now looks plenty short enough for the Easter Classic, a race in which he was an honourable third 12 months ago.

Maverick Wave is less consistent, but he has little to make up with Grendisar from the Winter Derby (his first run in over 100 days) and has put up a big effort in a handicap at Kempton since. This race lends itself to an each-way bet and he could be the one.

The 3YO Sprint promises to be run at a furious gallop, with several pace-forcers in attendance. Well-drawn Gracious John is the best of them – and can easily be forgiven his defeat at Chelmsford last time – but he is another “shortie” on a card with a fair few of them.

Wolowitz is a young horse going places, while Aguerooo could plausibly pick up the pieces if the leaders cut each other’s throats. Another one to sit out, I reckon.

Lastly, we have the 3YO Mile, and a worthy favourite at a backable price in Haalick. Much was made of how messy his last race was but not enough of how smooth his own win was. He ran 22.40s for the last two furlongs and should see out this extra furlong without a problem. The presence of three pace-forcers should assist his come-from-behind style.

Recommendations:

1 pt e/w VOLUNTEER POINT in the 13:40

1 pt win ALBEN STAR in the 14:10

1 pt win BALLYNANTY in the 14:40

1 pt e/w MAVERICK WAVE in the 15:45

2 pts win HAALICK in the 16:45