Scottish Sprint Cup: Break to have rebooted Robot

The horse they all have to beat from a form point of view is Blaine who looked revived all of a sudden when winning a big-field handicap on Derby Day at Epsom last Saturday by four and a half lengths and will carry a 6-lb penalty here. The refitted blinkers and a return to six furlongs were the catalysts for his bounce back there, while he’s also not been with the Dandy Nicholls yard long, but we know enough about him to think that he's not guaranteed to reproduce the same level two starts in a row (he still has a Timeform ‘squiggle’).

Nicholls has four other horses among the entries, including interesting pair Kimberella and Barnet Fair. Kimberella is in top form at present and would've surely won the ‘Dash’ at Epsom last Saturday had he not lost so much ground early when trying to anticipate the start, beaten just a short head in the end by Caspian Prince. He promises to be on the premises here with a repeat performance. Barnet Fair hasn’t won since August 2014 but he’s now on his lowest BHA mark (86) for nearly four years. Barnet Fair has possibly needed both his runs this term—that's certainly been the case with his first few starts in recent seasons—and he’s not one to write off at around 14/1 given he was third in this race in 2013 and fourth last year (also won over C&D as a three-year-old).

Tangerine Trees is a fascinating runner given he made a winning debut for Mick Appleby at Nottingham on his return, having spent eight seasons with Bryan Smart. That was the fifth time in the past seven years that he's scored on his seasonal reappearance (over C&D in both 2013 and 2015) and he showed his trademark early speed before digging deep under pressure. It's possible he's been revived by a change of scenery and he's another one who remains well treated on his old form (former Group 1 winner) under a penalty, though he's not always gone on after his reappearance and wouldn't be sure to build on his latest performance.

Another horse who’ll be vying for the early lead is Red Baron who has won three times over C&D, including this race during a 2015 campaign in which he won four times. He thrives on his racing—his last three races have come in the space of 10 days, getting back to his best when second of 11 to Judicial at Thirsk last time—and is sure to give it his best shot, but his career-high mark (7 lb higher than last year) may mean he’s vulnerable to more progressive/better handicapped rivals.

Much like Blaine is here, Duke of Firenze was clear top rated for the aforementioned Epsom ‘Dash’ last weekend and, while not quite reproducing the form of his win at York the time before, he showed himself still in good form when third. He was arguably not seen to maximum effect either in that he didn't have much room to manoeuvre when trying to build momentum on the stand rail, and he’s another who looks very likely to give a good account here for all the ‘Dash’ would have been a big target for him (won the race in 2013).

While the six horses already mentioned have an average age of seven and a half, four-year-olds Brando and Thesme bring something different to the table. Both have something to find with the principals on form—unlike fellow four-year-old Olivia Fallow, though she looks unlikely to get into the race—but they remain with potential after just 10 and 9 starts respectively, and there was just a length to separate them when they finished second and third behind Duke of Firenze in a handicap at York (Red Baron fourth) in mid-May. Brando was ridden different (dropped out) that day and is perhaps just favoured of the pair here given Thesme appears much more of a one-dimensional front runner, and obviously such tactics are generally often harder to pull off in big-field sprint handicaps.

Robot Boy ended last season out of sorts, but he hinted at being back in better form when travelling well for a long way on his final start and he begins the new season on a very handy mark. What’s more, he’s a C&D who has won on his return in the past (also finished a close fourth in a big-field handicap) and hails from the David Barron yard that’s among the winners at present. The same stable could also saddle last year’s runner-up Fast Track who finished second twice on the all-weather earlier in the year but failed to beat a rival home in the York race won by Duke of Firenze on his return to turf.

To wrap up, the market suggests Dandy Nicholls has a strong chance of winning this race with either Blaine (6/1 favourite currently) or Kimberella (7/1) and that’s certainly true, with both more or less guaranteed a run, which is obviously one of the things you’re looking for when betting ante-post. However, it could be worth taking a chance of Robot Boy at around 16/1 given he reappears off his lowest mark since winning at Newcastle in June 2014. Another Nicholls horse, Barnet Fair, has run well in this race twice before and is now off a lower mark than both times, so could also be worth a bet if he gets a run (or even if he runs in the consolation race instead).

Recommendation:

Back Robot Boy in the Scottish Sprint Cup at 16/1